earslookin’s Activity

Mon Jul 29

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 8:46 AM

Re: My portfolio at the end of July 2019

Tell me what about those results makes investing in the averages seem “prudent” to you?

Investing in the averages eliminates the risk of permanent capital loss from an individual business
going kaput. Note: That's not the same [more]

Mon Jun 10

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 6:09 PM

Re: My thoughts on Shopify. Again…

Forgive me, because I fear I am about to ramble.

I wish you'd ramble more often, Matt. You're an insightful analyst and concise writer.
Such a pleasure to read your work. Look forward to your future [more]

Sat Mar 2

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Last RoundUp board. 8:17 AM

Re: wow

Separate the strategy from the person.

There's a NASDAQ index that tracks emerging cloud stocks. Run 10,000 12-stock equal-weighted
portfolios picked at random from the 51 stocks in the index for 12/31/2018 to 2/28/2019. [more]

Sat Feb 23

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 9:26 PM

Re: Jeff's current portfolio for heckling

but psychologically I'm trying to wrestle myself to gravitate in that direction

Why?

You're one of the few who have some appreciation for randomness and bias and your own wiring.

Make a Ulysses pact. It's [more]

Sat Jan 26

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Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Last RoundUp board. 12:57 PM

Re: jnj - interesting observation

predicting how juries will react to individual cases, no matter what the evidence, remains problematic.

My take is that VL here is just acknowledging the inherent imperfection of the jury system, and not
especially attributing [more]

Sat Oct 27

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Stereo 8 board. 10:20 AM

Re: Howard Marks New Book

...guess I'll finally get around to reading her bestselling book, Thinking in Bets.

Just finished my first read. It's an excellent companion to Mauboussin's The Success Equation
and Kahneman's Thinking [more]

Wed Oct 24

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Stereo 8 board. 11:04 AM

Re: Howard Marks New Book

curious where do you think said this?

From Chapter 2, The Nature of Cycles...

For this reason, cycles have to be understood both analytically and intuitively.
As with many other aspects of investing, those who posess
[more]

Tue Oct 23

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Stereo 8 board. 9:52 AM

Re: Howard Marks New Book

Maybe I was having a bad day when I read this book:

* His style got in the way of the message. Style generally was: (1) Make a point; (2) Grab a
quote from one of his letters or previous book to make the point again; (3) Repeat the [more]

Wed Oct 17

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 10:13 PM

Re: My conviction levels

I often like to re-visit my conviction levels and see that my allocations are in line.

When I was younger I used to do the same.

At the time, part of me was curious whether conviction and allocation actually made a [more]

Tue Oct 16

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Weekly Analysis Club board. 10:06 AM

Re: Playboy Chicks crush the Index

Graham,

One of my favorite names -- my grandson is named Graham.

How many years would you give it before changing? What's your thought process?

Thanks,
Ears

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Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Weekly Analysis Club board. 9:46 AM

Re: Playboy Chicks crush the Index

IRdoc,

Thanks for your response!

10 Playboy models picked 5 stocks each. The contest ran for the full 2006 calendar year.
The average return for all 10 models was 8.6%. Half the models had gains and half had
losses. The [more]

NL

Boards Post

earslookin posted to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 8:27 AM

OT: Playboy Chicks crush the Index

What are the benefits and pitfalls of comparing your results to an index?

On the Weekly Analysis Club board...

[more]

Mon Oct 15

NL

Boards Post

earslookin posted to the Weekly Analysis Club board. 10:23 PM

Playboy Chicks crush the Index

Back in 2006 TradingMarkets and Playboy sponsored a stock picking contest. The winner
was Deanna Brooks, Miss May 1998. Her portfolio was up 43% for the year vs the S&P500
up 14%. Courtney Culkin was second, up 33%. Amy Sue Cooper [more]

Sat Oct 13

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 8:32 PM

Re: Cloud Index gains recognition

I’m not seeing the list of companies making up the index...

You can find them on Bessemer's site:

[more]

NL

Boards Post

earslookin posted to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 2:52 PM

Cloud Index gains recognition

For the last five years Bessemer Venture Partners -- one of the oldest venture capital firms -- has
been informally publishing an index of Cloud stocks. Now Bessemer has partnered with NASDAQ to
make the index 'official'. The new [more]

Wed Sep 12

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 3:28 PM

Re: Cloud Index at all time high

They should have put together a fund or ETF with this grouping of stocks.

Bessemer is one of the oldest VCs around. They were early backers of many of these
names. The do ok.

I like them because they don't take [more]

NL

Boards Post

earslookin posted to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 3:02 PM

Cloud Index at all time high

An index of 50 cloud stocks reached an all time high at the end of last month.

** Up 54% since 12/29/2017.

** Up 657% (30% annualized) since 1/1/2011.

** EV/Rev(2018) multiple 11.0X. Previous high (July) was 9.2X. Early in [more]

Tue Sep 11

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 9:13 PM

Re: Market Cap Thinking

For these companies which have similar sales in the last 12 months, we can see what the
market is expecting by looking at their different market caps. Then we can compare our
expectations to the Market's.


Assuming these [more]

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 5:11 PM

Re: Market Cap Thinking

Bear,

How have you factored in investor expectations for eventual net margins in your comparisons?
Or are you thinking investors believe future margins are a constant for these businesses?

P.S., no criticism intended, just [more]

Sat Sep 8

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 3:10 PM

Re: Update: the fragility of our overvalued stoc

Hi Saul,

Thanks for responding. I can see why the word 'speculative' set you off. You focus on business
fundamentals. Speculators bet on price swings.

Keep in mind that salesforce.com [more]

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