howardroark

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howardroark replied to the Last RoundUp board. 4:10 PM

Re: use slack?

been using it heavily since 2015. definitely pay the fee to save your archives. it's useful.

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howardroark replied to the Last RoundUp board. 5:10 PM

Re: miserable week

and you thought you were panicking. treas sec says nobody panic he spoke to some banks and they are still standing as far as he knows and norad confirms zero nuclear missiles headed toward mainland so far. perfect statement for, say, s&p 900. oh [more]

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howardroark replied to the Last RoundUp board. 8:20 AM

Re: miserable week

if you run for prez, i'll vote for you
we can put Fungi as your VICE
you appoint ET fed chairman
naj handles the press
keep fate out of it - they will eat him alive cause he is too nice

as excruciating as this job [more]

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howardroark replied to the Last RoundUp board. 4:36 PM

Re: miserable week

sometimes after a day like this when i've been staring at the blinking red bloomberg screens for like six straight hours and ignoring all the fancy advice about greed and fear and tapdancing from that guy named after a luby's spread i briefly [more]

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 9:12 AM

Re: FB

“What I would really like to do is find a way to get our policies set in a way that reflects the values of the community, so I am not the one making those decisions,” Zuckerberg said. “I feel fundamentally uncomfortable sitting here in California [more]

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howardroark replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:04 PM

Re: OT: Mind-blowing expectations

Any idea as to what the assumptions behind the GMV estimate are?

JPM math for 18e is:

1P Online : $128b
Whole Foods/B&M : $ 18b

3P Online Net : $ 43b
Blended Take Rate : 17%
3P GMV : [more]

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howardroark replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:04 PM

Re: OT: Mind-blowing expectations

All else being equal, investors currently believe that $1 of sales generated by Amazon is
roughly worth 7.5X more than $1 in sales generated by the list of "old" retailers above.

I just turned 120 and for 119 of those [more]

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 1:45 PM

Re: MyCo

My mom once saw me drinking a single cup of tea and without further ado for my next birthday sent me enough boxes of tea to kill Mary Poppins. I think you just tea bagged me with Michael Woodford, so to speak. We’re moonwalking in opposite directions [more]

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 9:38 AM

Re: MyCo

So why not just get rid of thinking
about all of that and simplify the whole situation down to say the Fed Funds target?

Because interest rate centrism is like a virus in the minds of otherwise healthy humans. It makes seemingly [more]

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 10:36 AM

Re: MyCo

A bit more specific question would be: do you think a constant money multiplier assumption is
sufficient for a boiled down model? My (possibly incorrect) interpretation of the MyCo model is that
the answer to the latter is yes (but then, [more]

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 9:40 AM

Re: MyCo

In the above I am effectively pointing out two salient features of monetary systems

I can see you mean well and are probably mortally convinced of the salience of these features. But I've had enough conversations with Randall [more]

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:02 PM

Re: MyCo

Okay, since someone partly figured out the metaphor (nicely done), this seems like a good time to explain what the hell I'm trying to do here. The point of this was not a guessing game charade, but to try to lay out a framework for thinking that [more]

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:21 PM

Re: MyCo

Wow. Okay, I will be back later when I have a little more time but I just skimmed the thread and see that I may as well just throw Part 3 out there now.

MyCo Part III: Debt

In Part I, I mentioned that MyCo did have some debt [more]

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 11:14 AM

Re: MyCo

Okay, maybe not the crushing deluge of entries I was imagining, but I'll push the ball a little further. thanks for those who humored me with responses, especially ET's good summary of some of the uniquely strange aspects of the story. A few [more]

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 5:10 PM

Re: MyCo

Clarifying questions: Does this section mean that shareholders of the A shares are guaranteed a small negative annual real return? And by what mechanism is MYCO able to accomplish this?

so I'm not sure here what they would be [more]

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howardroark posted to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 10:41 AM

MyCo

MyCo, Part 1

Imagine an unusual company. MyCo is in the reviews businesses. It initially made its mark by using machine learning to develop its proprietary MYCO score, which quickly toppled Fair Isaac’s dominant standard for credit ratings. [more]

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 9:47 AM

Re: Do you pay someone to manage money?

The first level theory on indexing seems to be that with more people not even trying to outperform the index, it should be easier for active to outperform. That hasn't happened, and so the second level theory seems to be that with more people [more]

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 9:00 AM

Re: Do you pay someone to manage money?

Well, I posted some of my ideas and engaged other members on the VIC threads, which lead to an invitation for an interview with Joel Greenblatt. I had no doubt that I would bomb in any personal interview and it would soon be discovered that I was [more]

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howardroark replied to the Last RoundUp board. 9:54 AM

Re: Accounting question

You’re right this is unusual. Most likely at some point in the year they were constantly rolling over their marketable securities in commercial paper or something very short term (think of 40mm or whatever “maturing” every week for a few months) and [more]

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howardroark replied to the Last RoundUp board. 11:07 AM

Re: question

I'm going to confess my ignorance and say I've never heard of a physical investor kit. I guess this is the leave-behinds from IR?

lemme break it down for you. while you spent the 80s shut off in the trop's daycare facility [more]