mungofitch’s Activity

Yesterday

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:26 PM

Re: OT bubbles

I haven't heard people getting what I'd call furious at the notion...

You're just not trying hard enough : )
Try saying something (anything) about Tesla and see what happens.
(Price $800, market cap $144bn [more]

Sat Feb 15

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:32 AM

Re: OT. Calls again. How About SPY?

I don't look at it that way, as buying the stock vs. buying the option. I look at the way I understood Jim's explanation.

FWIW, I also subtract the dividend I miss when calculating the cost of the borrow.
(though [more]

Wed Feb 12

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:19 AM

Re: OT: Article About BAM and BPY

For the sake of convenience, it's nice to find it on line.

It might be interesting to read it in conjunction with the recent thread about it on the Brookfield board.
[more]

Tue Feb 11

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:38 PM

Re: Ot fixed income investing

Mix BRK.B and WFCpL (current yield 4.9%) in proportions to please. Hold in perpetuity, sell as needed/desired.

For bonus points: set your cash allocation percentage equal to the degree to which your holdings are richly valued.
I [more]

Sat Feb 8

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:53 PM

Re: 99-day clock reset

By doing what? Buying IWM puts?

And/or index shorts.
A pinch of each, at the moment.

Jim

Fri Feb 7

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:26 PM

Re: Reports of Value's Death May Be Exaggera

Is this, or something similar to it, in our arsenal of named screens?

Not quite.
But it's very similar to a previously posted but not "named and official" screen.

This one is very close, created on data up [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:30 AM

Re: 99-day clock reset

Another day with the S&P500 up 0.33% and the Russell 2000 down 0.27%. Will this divergence never end?

I hope not!
I switched my hedging from the S&P 500 to the Russell 2000 in 2018.
So far, a great move.

My [more]

NL

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:20 AM

Re: 99-day clock reset

There I was thinking about selling some stock to raise cash and you have made me think again. New high reset, generally bullish for a while longer! Raise cash soon but not now.

Well, selling stock to raise cash is always a defensible [more]

NL

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:15 AM

Re: Reports of Value's Death May Be Exaggerated

The article uses Price-to-Book to define value. It also uses the same portfolio construction techniques French and Fama used 30 years ago.
There are probably better value measures, but the article avoids data mining by sticking to
[more]

Thu Feb 6

NL

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mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 3:23 PM

Re: FKA: TUP

What type of dividend would you need to see for this to "turn out well"?

Dividends are usually red herrings.
The things that matter most are the trajectory of owner earnings, and the level of intelligence within how [more]

NL

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:51 PM

Re: 99-day clock reset

Valuation certainly isn't a guide to short term market direction.
It's probably not a bad day to close any hedges you have.

Not forever, though...

Jim

Sun Feb 2

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 10:24 AM

Re: AMZN

a hugely capital and energy intensive cutthroat-competitive business,
by definition supplying a commodity service, with several very deep-pocketed
desperate competitors not worried about making a profit any time soon,
...
AWS $40B
[more]

Tue Jan 21

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:23 PM

Re: Calls verus stocks

In case anybody is interested in an example of the current implied interest rate for deep in the money calls...

I rolled a long term Alphabet position today, which I had been holding as calls.
I let the previous call position get [more]

Mon Jan 20

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 8:53 AM

Re: FKA: ADS

The company is rudderless, with multiple CEO transitions within a year, among other executive turnover...

Not that I deny that there has been some chaos, but there is a more optimistic view of that.

They are almost an [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 7:50 AM

Re: Calls verus stocks

But if it is a covered call, doesn't it have to be sitting in cash?

This has been a conversation primarily about buying calls, specifically in-the-money calls, as a way of getting a little leverage because you're [more]

Sun Jan 19

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:54 AM

Re: Calls verus stocks

Another disadvantage of buying calls is the complexity involved.

True, to a degree.

But it need not be so, really.
I get rid of almost all the complexity by assuming that every option position I open will be held till [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:27 AM

Re: Calls verus stocks

Another obviously is time decay which is similar to your mention of premium loss.. If your stock takes several years to pop. Then you lose. You must be right on the direction and time frame.

It's true that a big disadvantage with [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:14 AM

Re: Calls verus stocks

The lower the strike and the longer the term, the more it resembles simply buying a stock.
...
Yes, as characterized by Delta!


Sure.
But I was thinking more in terms of prudent investing characteristics.
The lower the [more]

Sat Jan 18

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:10 PM

Re: Calls verus stocks

That explains it perfectly. It really is the cost of the loan that is the problem.

The cost is a fair deal---if the stock return is reliably higher!
Of course, if you can predict stock prices, then there are many many ways to [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 10:31 AM

Re: FKA: TUP

thnx for the heads up
i bought some at 8.55 with little conviction, and sold after a tiny bounce.
back in at 7.54. basically a call option at this price


It looks like you had a nice week.
$9.42 now.

I mentioned [more]

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