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Putting your money in the market can feel very risky and hurt--especially short-term losses. Especially when Mr. Greenspan is yammering (probably rightly) about China's markets. Not putting your money in and watching it go up while you're on the sidelines can make you feel silly. The worst is when you're hanging out on the fence, with these two feelings pulling you back and forth while you get sawed to pieces. So with that in mind, let me try to pull you into the pool.

Absolutely, the market is due for a pullback. But it might go up some first. After the pullback, it's going to go up again and crash, maybe 1%, maybe 20%, and then go back up. Repeat until forever or extinction event. :)

Buffett says he can't do forecasting and doesn't see the point.

"I don't care about a possible recession; I don't spend a minute thinking about it. The next 20 years should be good; we're in the game forever. We focus on things that are known and important. We don't know how to forecast, it's meaningless to us."-w.b.

Buy great companies, or distressed ones or whatever your mojo is. You'll be fine. If you really think the market is going to tank in six weeks, then OK. Stay out and go shopping when everything's on sale. But it's a really great market right now for bargains. Maybe it always is, I dunno. Haven't been doing this long enough. Seems like it.

Personally, I hope we get another February (or May 06) really soon to yank down some prices. Boy, would I love some more NUAN at $8/share. :)

My take is: If you don't understand it, don't buy it. (Although, this has cost me a lot of money by not buying BWLD, which still, if you'll pardon the pun, bewilders me.) If you need the money, keep it out. I don't invest in securities, for example, with the money I need for paying taxes or mortgages, because inside a month or a year, it might get cut in half. If you understand the business(es) and they're good ones and good values, get in the pool and stay in.

Building positions in thirds can help shield you from some financial risk and mental shock. If you feel global financial disaster is imminent, get your next third at half off!
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