Back in 1998, when Ericsson finally threw in the towel on it's case against QCOM's CDMA patents, the stock went up $50. My initial reaction was that I should probably buy more (I already owned what counted for me as plenty). I didn't buy more, but my initial reaction was correct. Things are a little different this time. Back then, QCOM had basically become the owner of CDMA, the emerging wireless technology. This time, QCOM is a major player in 5g, but the competition is more significant. OTOH, the percentage move in reaction to the news back then was, I think, almost 100%. This time, it's much less. So today I once again think it's right to buy more Qualcomm, and once again I probably won't - even though it's not nearly as large a percentage holding for me as it was then. Once again I will probably be wrong.
I agree, I should buy some but I probably won't. Unless it keeps selling off today.
There's no question that QCOM has been hit by some bad news in the past couple of weeks. But for anyone with a 3-5 year time horizon, this looks like a strong buying opportunity. QCOM should be able to work through today's ruling one way or another. If the trade issues with China continue, they will certainly be hit in the short term, but QCOM still looks like the long term American 5g winner no matter which way it goes.Two main risks I see, both non-trivial:- It becomes much more difficult to monetize their IPR, either thanks to the Justice Dept, or China's continued ability to flout IP standards worldwide, or both. As a footnote, the one good thing that could come out of today's ruling is that QCOM might finally realize that it's a better idea to partner with your customers rather than hold them hostage. The recent agreement with AAPL might have been a step in that direction.- 5g turns out to be much less important over the next 5-10 years than the current (hyped?) consensus would indicate.I think there's good risk/reward here, and added a bit on the open.
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