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No. of Recommendations: 11
I have been following the real (inflation-adjusted) yield of the 10 Year Treasury for years.

Treasuries are often bought during crises, as a "flight-to-safety" investment. This buying overlays the normal supply-demand of bonds.

Normally, investors bid up the price of bonds (depress the yields) during recessions and sell bonds (increase yields) during economic recovery, when inflation increases and stocks improve due to increased corporate sales.

For the past few months, and especially the past few weeks, there has been an important trend change that affects Treasuries.

Treasury prices have recently been increased by two important factors that have just ended:

1. The potential default of Greece's sovereign debt, which could have caused a financial crisis spreading from Europe, has been contained.

2. QE2, the Federal Reserve program to depress bond yields buy buying Treasuries, has just ended.

As a result, Treasury prices are declining and Treasury yields are increasing, especially on the long end.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/GS10.txt

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$IRX,$US...


http://www.housingwire.com/2011/06/10/federal-reserve-takes-...


The Fed implemented the $600 billion, Treasury bond buying program in November 2010 to stimulate an anemic economy.
[At the time, Treasury yields were increasing suddenly. The Fed actually started buying to depress the yields, which QE2 did successfully. -- W]

The agency's final weeks of quantitative easing [June 2011] are expected to reach $62 billion...
[end quote]

Like all commodities, the price of Treasuries responds to supply and demand.

The Treasury Department borrows some money from the public and borrows some money internally (from other branches of government). Only the issuance to the public is "supply" in the market.

http://www.fms.treas.gov/bulletin/index.html


TABLE FD-2.— Treasury Debt Held by the Public
[In millions of dollars. Source: “Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United States”]

Issuance Growth
3/1/2010 8,290,069
4/1/2010 8,434,435 144,366 1.7%
5/1/2010 8,494,419 59,984 0.7%
6/1/2010 8,633,680 139,261 1.6%
7/1/2010 8,702,458 68,778 0.8%
8/1/2010 8,927,061 224,603 2.6%
9/1/2010 9,022,808 95,747 1.1%
10/1/2010 9,069,879 47,071 0.5%
11/1/2010 9,275,025 205,146 2.3%
12/1/2010 9,390,476 115,451 1.2%
1/1/2011 9,485,417 94,941 1.0%
2/1/2011 9,565,541 80,124 0.8%
3/1/2011 9,651,643 86,102 0.9%



The data shows that Treasury was borrowing a lot of money (spent in the economy) in early 2010, when GDP growth accelerated. When Treasury borrowing declined, so did GDP's growth rate.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/GDPC1.txt


The data shows that Treasury issued $581.764 Billion to the public from 11/2010 to 3/2011. (Treasury has not yet published the more recent data.) QE2 was $600 Billion.

The amount of QE2 Treasury buying was almost equivalent to the amount issued to the public.

At the same time that Treasury yields will increase due to the ending of QE2, inflation is rising. The real yield of the 10YT has been declining and was negative in May 2011 for the first time since 2008.

I use the 12-month inflation rate to take out seasonal effects when calculating this.
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0?output_view=pct_1...

The monthly rate of inflation is higher in 2011 than 2010, which is a concern to bond buyers, since the real rate of the bond (nominal yield minus inflation rate) is eroded.

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0?output_view=pct_1...

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May
2011 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.5

Using the 12-month inflation rate, the real rate of the 10YT has declined.



DATE 12 mnth infl 10YT Real yield
1/1/2010 2.6 3.73 1.13
2/1/2010 2.1 3.69 1.59
3/1/2010 2.3 3.73 1.43
4/1/2010 2.2 3.85 1.65
5/1/2010 2 3.42 1.42
6/1/2010 1.1 3.2 2.1
7/1/2010 1.2 3.01 1.81
8/1/2010 1.1 2.7 1.6
9/1/2010 1.1 2.65 1.55
10/1/2010 1.2 2.54 1.34
11/1/2010 1.1 2.76 1.66
12/1/2010 1.5 3.29 1.79
1/1/2011 1.6 3.39 1.79
2/1/2011 2.1 3.58 1.48
3/1/2011 2.7 3.41 0.71
4/1/2011 3.2 3.46 0.26
5/1/2011 3.6 3.17 -0.43


See the footnote for the entire data set. The average real yield of the 10YT from 1953 to May 2011 is 2.54%.

With QE2 ending, the economy recovering, inflation rising and the real yield well below the historical average, I expect that Treasury yields will continue to rise in the future until they have mean-reverted.

Longer bonds will be affected more than shorter bonds, since change causes uncertainty. As yields rise, the value of longer bonds will drop more than shorter bonds.

I am not buying bonds now, especially not long-term bonds.

Wendy (see data below)






DATE 12 mnth infl 10YT Real Yield
4/1/1953 0.8 2.83 2.03
5/1/1953 1.1 3.05 1.95
6/1/1953 1.1 3.11 2.01
7/1/1953 0.4 2.93 2.53
8/1/1953 0.7 2.95 2.25
9/1/1953 0.7 2.87 2.17
10/1/1953 1.1 2.66 1.56
11/1/1953 0.7 2.68 1.98
12/1/1953 0.7 2.59 1.89
1/1/1954 1.1 2.48 1.38
2/1/1954 1.5 2.47 0.97
3/1/1954 1.1 2.37 1.27
4/1/1954 0.8 2.29 1.49
5/1/1954 0.7 2.37 1.67
6/1/1954 0.4 2.38 1.98
7/1/1954 0.4 2.3 1.9
8/1/1954 0 2.36 2.36
9/1/1954 -0.4 2.38 2.78
10/1/1954 -0.7 2.43 3.13
11/1/1954 -0.4 2.48 2.88
12/1/1954 -0.7 2.51 3.21
1/1/1955 -0.7 2.61 3.31
2/1/1955 -0.7 2.65 3.35
3/1/1955 -0.7 2.68 3.38
4/1/1955 -0.4 2.75 3.15
5/1/1955 -0.7 2.76 3.46
6/1/1955 -0.7 2.78 3.48
7/1/1955 -0.4 2.9 3.3
8/1/1955 -0.4 2.97 3.37
9/1/1955 0.4 2.97 2.57
10/1/1955 0.4 2.88 2.48
11/1/1955 0.4 2.89 2.49
12/1/1955 0.4 2.96 2.56
1/1/1956 0.4 2.9 2.5
2/1/1956 0.4 2.84 2.44
3/1/1956 0.4 2.96 2.56
4/1/1956 0.7 3.18 2.48
5/1/1956 1.1 3.07 1.97
6/1/1956 1.9 3 1.1
7/1/1956 2.2 3.11 0.91
8/1/1956 1.9 3.33 1.43
9/1/1956 1.9 3.38 1.48
10/1/1956 2.2 3.34 1.14
11/1/1956 2.2 3.49 1.29
12/1/1956 3 3.59 0.59
1/1/1957 3 3.46 0.46
2/1/1957 3.4 3.34 -0.06
3/1/1957 3.7 3.41 -0.29
4/1/1957 3.7 3.48 -0.22
5/1/1957 3.7 3.6 -0.1
6/1/1957 3.3 3.8 0.5
7/1/1957 3.3 3.93 0.63
8/1/1957 3.7 3.93 0.23
9/1/1957 3.3 3.92 0.62
10/1/1957 2.9 3.97 1.07
11/1/1957 3.3 3.72 0.42
12/1/1957 2.9 3.21 0.31
1/1/1958 3.6 3.09 -0.51
2/1/1958 3.2 3.05 -0.15
3/1/1958 3.6 2.98 -0.62
4/1/1958 3.6 2.88 -0.72
5/1/1958 3.2 2.92 -0.28
6/1/1958 2.8 2.97 0.17
7/1/1958 2.5 3.2 0.7
8/1/1958 2.1 3.54 1.44
9/1/1958 2.1 3.76 1.66
10/1/1958 2.1 3.8 1.7
11/1/1958 2.1 3.74 1.64
12/1/1958 1.8 3.86 2.06
1/1/1959 1.4 4.02 2.62
2/1/1959 1 3.96 2.96
3/1/1959 0.3 3.99 3.69
4/1/1959 0.3 4.12 3.82
5/1/1959 0.3 4.31 4.01
6/1/1959 0.7 4.34 3.64
7/1/1959 0.7 4.4 3.7
8/1/1959 1 4.43 3.43
9/1/1959 1.4 4.68 3.28
10/1/1959 1.7 4.53 2.83
11/1/1959 1.4 4.53 3.13
12/1/1959 1.7 4.69 2.99
1/1/1960 1 4.72 3.72
2/1/1960 1.7 4.49 2.79
3/1/1960 1.7 4.25 2.55
4/1/1960 1.7 4.28 2.58
5/1/1960 1.7 4.35 2.65
6/1/1960 1.7 4.15 2.45
7/1/1960 1.4 3.9 2.5
8/1/1960 1.4 3.8 2.4
9/1/1960 1 3.8 2.8
10/1/1960 1.4 3.89 2.49
11/1/1960 1.4 3.93 2.53
12/1/1960 1.4 3.84 2.44
1/1/1961 1.7 3.84 2.14
2/1/1961 1.4 3.78 2.38
3/1/1961 1.4 3.74 2.34
4/1/1961 1 3.78 2.78
5/1/1961 1 3.71 2.71
6/1/1961 0.7 3.88 3.18
7/1/1961 1.4 3.92 2.52
8/1/1961 1 4.04 3.04
9/1/1961 1.4 3.98 2.58
10/1/1961 0.7 3.92 3.22
11/1/1961 0.7 3.94 3.24
12/1/1961 0.7 4.06 3.36
1/1/1962 0.7 4.08 3.38
2/1/1962 1 4.04 3.04
3/1/1962 1 3.93 2.93
4/1/1962 1.3 3.84 2.54
5/1/1962 1.3 3.87 2.57
6/1/1962 1.3 3.91 2.61
7/1/1962 1 4.01 3.01
8/1/1962 1.3 3.98 2.68
9/1/1962 1.3 3.98 2.68
10/1/1962 1.3 3.93 2.63
11/1/1962 1.3 3.92 2.62
12/1/1962 1.3 3.86 2.56
1/1/1963 1.3 3.83 2.53
2/1/1963 1 3.92 2.92
3/1/1963 1.3 3.93 2.63
4/1/1963 1 3.97 2.97
5/1/1963 1 3.93 2.93
6/1/1963 1.3 3.99 2.69
7/1/1963 1.3 4.02 2.72
8/1/1963 1.3 4 2.7
9/1/1963 1 4.08 3.08
10/1/1963 1.3 4.11 2.81
11/1/1963 1.3 4.12 2.82
12/1/1963 1.6 4.13 2.53
1/1/1964 1.6 4.17 2.57
2/1/1964 1.6 4.15 2.55
3/1/1964 1.3 4.22 2.92
4/1/1964 1.3 4.23 2.93
5/1/1964 1.3 4.2 2.9
6/1/1964 1.3 4.17 2.87
7/1/1964 1.3 4.19 2.89
8/1/1964 1 4.19 3.19
9/1/1964 1.3 4.2 2.9
10/1/1964 1 4.19 3.19
11/1/1964 1.3 4.15 2.85
12/1/1964 1 4.18 3.18
1/1/1965 1 4.19 3.19
2/1/1965 1 4.21 3.21
3/1/1965 1.3 4.21 2.91
4/1/1965 1.6 4.2 2.6
5/1/1965 1.6 4.21 2.61
6/1/1965 1.9 4.21 2.31
7/1/1965 1.6 4.2 2.6
8/1/1965 1.9 4.25 2.35
9/1/1965 1.6 4.29 2.69
10/1/1965 1.9 4.35 2.45
11/1/1965 1.6 4.45 2.85
12/1/1965 1.9 4.62 2.72
1/1/1966 1.9 4.61 2.71
2/1/1966 2.6 4.83 2.23
3/1/1966 2.6 4.87 2.27
4/1/1966 2.9 4.75 1.85
5/1/1966 2.9 4.78 1.88
6/1/1966 2.5 4.81 2.31
7/1/1966 2.8 5.02 2.22
8/1/1966 3.5 5.22 1.72
9/1/1966 3.5 5.18 1.68
10/1/1966 3.8 5.01 1.21
11/1/1966 3.8 5.16 1.36
12/1/1966 3.5 4.84 1.34
1/1/1967 3.5 4.58 1.08
2/1/1967 2.8 4.63 1.83
3/1/1967 2.8 4.54 1.74
4/1/1967 2.5 4.59 2.09
5/1/1967 2.8 4.85 2.05
6/1/1967 2.8 5.02 2.22
7/1/1967 2.8 5.16 2.36
8/1/1967 2.4 5.28 2.88
9/1/1967 2.8 5.3 2.5
10/1/1967 2.4 5.48 3.08
11/1/1967 2.7 5.75 3.05
12/1/1967 3 5.7 2.7
1/1/1968 3.6 5.53 1.93
2/1/1968 4 5.56 1.56
3/1/1968 3.9 5.74 1.84
4/1/1968 3.9 5.64 1.74
5/1/1968 3.9 5.87 1.97
6/1/1968 4.2 5.72 1.52
7/1/1968 4.5 5.5 1
8/1/1968 4.5 5.42 0.92
9/1/1968 4.5 5.46 0.96
10/1/1968 4.7 5.58 0.88
11/1/1968 4.7 5.7 1
12/1/1968 4.7 6.03 1.33
1/1/1969 4.4 6.04 1.64
2/1/1969 4.7 6.19 1.49
3/1/1969 5.2 6.3 1.1
4/1/1969 5.5 6.17 0.67
5/1/1969 5.5 6.32 0.82
6/1/1969 5.5 6.57 1.07
7/1/1969 5.4 6.72 1.32
8/1/1969 5.7 6.69 0.99
9/1/1969 5.7 7.16 1.46
10/1/1969 5.7 7.1 1.4
11/1/1969 5.9 7.14 1.24
12/1/1969 6.2 7.65 1.45
1/1/1970 6.2 7.79 1.59
2/1/1970 6.1 7.24 1.14
3/1/1970 5.8 7.07 1.27
4/1/1970 6.1 7.39 1.29
5/1/1970 6 7.91 1.91
6/1/1970 6 7.84 1.84
7/1/1970 6 7.46 1.46
8/1/1970 5.4 7.53 2.13
9/1/1970 5.7 7.39 1.69
10/1/1970 5.6 7.33 1.73
11/1/1970 5.6 6.84 1.24
12/1/1970 5.6 6.39 0.79
1/1/1971 5.3 6.24 0.94
2/1/1971 5 6.11 1.11
3/1/1971 4.7 5.7 1
4/1/1971 4.2 5.83 1.63
5/1/1971 4.4 6.39 1.99
6/1/1971 4.6 6.52 1.92
7/1/1971 4.4 6.73 2.33
8/1/1971 4.6 6.58 1.98
9/1/1971 4.1 6.14 2.04
10/1/1971 3.8 5.93 2.13
11/1/1971 3.3 5.81 2.51
12/1/1971 3.3 5.93 2.63
1/1/1972 3.3 5.95 2.65
2/1/1972 3.5 6.08 2.58
3/1/1972 3.5 6.07 2.57
4/1/1972 3.5 6.19 2.69
5/1/1972 3.2 6.13 2.93
6/1/1972 2.7 6.11 3.41
7/1/1972 2.9 6.11 3.21
8/1/1972 2.9 6.21 3.31
9/1/1972 3.2 6.55 3.35
10/1/1972 3.4 6.48 3.08
11/1/1972 3.7 6.28 2.58
12/1/1972 3.4 6.36 2.96
1/1/1973 3.6 6.46 2.86
2/1/1973 3.9 6.64 2.74
3/1/1973 4.6 6.71 2.11
4/1/1973 5.1 6.67 1.57
5/1/1973 5.5 6.85 1.35
6/1/1973 6 6.9 0.9
7/1/1973 5.7 7.13 1.43
8/1/1973 7.4 7.4 0
9/1/1973 7.4 7.09 -0.31
10/1/1973 7.8 6.79 -1.01
11/1/1973 8.3 6.73 -1.57
12/1/1973 8.7 6.74 -1.96
1/1/1974 9.4 6.99 -2.41
2/1/1974 10 6.96 -3.04
3/1/1974 10.4 7.21 -3.19
4/1/1974 10.1 7.51 -2.59
5/1/1974 10.7 7.58 -3.12
6/1/1974 10.9 7.54 -3.36
7/1/1974 11.5 7.81 -3.69
8/1/1974 10.9 8.04 -2.86
9/1/1974 11.9 8.04 -3.86
10/1/1974 12.1 7.9 -4.2
11/1/1974 12.2 7.68 -4.52
12/1/1974 12.3 7.43 -4.87
1/1/1975 11.8 7.5 -4.3
2/1/1975 11.2 7.39 -3.81
3/1/1975 10.3 7.73 -2.57
4/1/1975 10.2 8.23 -1.97
5/1/1975 9.5 8.06 -1.44
6/1/1975 9.4 7.86 -1.54
7/1/1975 9.7 8.06 -1.64
8/1/1975 8.6 8.4 -0.2
9/1/1975 7.9 8.43 0.53
10/1/1975 7.4 8.14 0.74
11/1/1975 7.4 8.05 0.65
12/1/1975 6.9 8 1.1
1/1/1976 6.7 7.74 1.04
2/1/1976 6.3 7.79 1.49
3/1/1976 6.1 7.73 1.63
4/1/1976 6 7.56 1.56
5/1/1976 6.2 7.9 1.7
6/1/1976 6 7.86 1.86
7/1/1976 5.4 7.83 2.43
8/1/1976 5.7 7.77 2.07
9/1/1976 5.5 7.59 2.09
10/1/1976 5.5 7.41 1.91
11/1/1976 4.9 7.29 2.39
12/1/1976 4.9 6.87 1.97
1/1/1977 5.2 7.21 2.01
2/1/1977 5.9 7.39 1.49
3/1/1977 6.4 7.46 1.06
4/1/1977 7 7.37 0.37
5/1/1977 6.7 7.46 0.76
6/1/1977 6.9 7.28 0.38
7/1/1977 6.8 7.33 0.53
8/1/1977 6.6 7.4 0.8
9/1/1977 6.6 7.34 0.74
10/1/1977 6.4 7.52 1.12
11/1/1977 6.7 7.58 0.88
12/1/1977 6.7 7.69 0.99
1/1/1978 6.8 7.96 1.16
2/1/1978 6.4 8.03 1.63
3/1/1978 6.6 8.04 1.44
4/1/1978 6.5 8.15 1.65
5/1/1978 7 8.35 1.35
6/1/1978 7.4 8.46 1.06
7/1/1978 7.7 8.64 0.94
8/1/1978 7.8 8.41 0.61
9/1/1978 8.3 8.42 0.12
10/1/1978 8.9 8.64 -0.26
11/1/1978 8.9 8.81 -0.09
12/1/1978 9 9.01 0.01
1/1/1979 9.3 9.1 -0.2
2/1/1979 9.9 9.1 -0.8
3/1/1979 10.1 9.12 -0.98
4/1/1979 10.5 9.18 -1.32
5/1/1979 10.9 9.25 -1.65
6/1/1979 10.9 8.91 -1.99
7/1/1979 11.3 8.95 -2.35
8/1/1979 11.8 9.03 -2.77
9/1/1979 12.2 9.33 -2.87
10/1/1979 12.1 10.3 -1.8
11/1/1979 12.6 10.65 -1.95
12/1/1979 13.3 10.39 -2.91
1/1/1980 13.9 10.8 -3.1
2/1/1980 14.2 12.41 -1.79
3/1/1980 14.8 12.75 -2.05
4/1/1980 14.7 11.47 -3.23
5/1/1980 14.4 10.18 -4.22
6/1/1980 14.4 9.78 -4.62
7/1/1980 13.1 10.25 -2.85
8/1/1980 12.9 11.1 -1.8
9/1/1980 12.6 11.51 -1.09
10/1/1980 12.8 11.75 -1.05
11/1/1980 12.6 12.68 0.08
12/1/1980 12.5 12.84 0.34
1/1/1981 11.8 12.57 0.77
2/1/1981 11.4 13.19 1.79
3/1/1981 10.5 13.12 2.62
4/1/1981 10 13.68 3.68
5/1/1981 9.8 14.1 4.3
6/1/1981 9.6 13.47 3.87
7/1/1981 10.8 14.28 3.48
8/1/1981 10.8 14.94 4.14
9/1/1981 11 15.32 4.32
10/1/1981 10.1 15.15 5.05
11/1/1981 9.6 13.39 3.79
12/1/1981 8.9 13.72 4.82
1/1/1982 8.4 14.59 6.19
2/1/1982 7.6 14.43 6.83
3/1/1982 6.8 13.86 7.06
4/1/1982 6.5 13.87 7.37
5/1/1982 6.7 13.62 6.92
6/1/1982 7.1 14.3 7.2
7/1/1982 6.4 13.95 7.55
8/1/1982 5.9 13.06 7.16
9/1/1982 5 12.34 7.34
10/1/1982 5.1 10.91 5.81
11/1/1982 4.6 10.55 5.95
12/1/1982 3.8 10.54 6.74
1/1/1983 3.7 10.46 6.76
2/1/1983 3.5 10.72 7.22
3/1/1983 3.6 10.51 6.91
4/1/1983 3.9 10.4 6.5
5/1/1983 3.5 10.38 6.88
6/1/1983 2.6 10.85 8.25
7/1/1983 2.5 11.38 8.88
8/1/1983 2.6 11.85 9.25
9/1/1983 2.9 11.65 8.75
10/1/1983 2.9 11.54 8.64
11/1/1983 3.3 11.69 8.39
12/1/1983 3.8 11.83 8.03
1/1/1984 4.2 11.67 7.47
2/1/1984 4.6 11.84 7.24
3/1/1984 4.8 12.32 7.52
4/1/1984 4.6 12.63 8.03
5/1/1984 4.2 13.41 9.21
6/1/1984 4.2 13.56 9.36
7/1/1984 4.2 13.36 9.16
8/1/1984 4.3 12.72 8.42
9/1/1984 4.3 12.52 8.22
10/1/1984 4.3 12.16 7.86
11/1/1984 4.1 11.57 7.47
12/1/1984 3.9 11.5 7.6
1/1/1985 3.5 11.38 7.88
2/1/1985 3.5 11.51 8.01
3/1/1985 3.7 11.86 8.16
4/1/1985 3.7 11.43 7.73
5/1/1985 3.8 10.85 7.05
6/1/1985 3.8 10.16 6.36
7/1/1985 3.6 10.31 6.71
8/1/1985 3.3 10.33 7.03
9/1/1985 3.1 10.37 7.27
10/1/1985 3.2 10.24 7.04
11/1/1985 3.5 9.78 6.28
12/1/1985 3.8 9.26 5.46
1/1/1986 3.9 9.19 5.29
2/1/1986 3.1 8.7 5.6
3/1/1986 2.3 7.78 5.48
4/1/1986 1.6 7.3 5.7
5/1/1986 1.5 7.71 6.21
6/1/1986 1.8 7.8 6
7/1/1986 1.6 7.3 5.7
8/1/1986 1.6 7.17 5.57
9/1/1986 1.8 7.45 5.65
10/1/1986 1.5 7.43 5.93
11/1/1986 1.3 7.25 5.95
12/1/1986 1.1 7.11 6.01
1/1/1987 1.5 7.08 5.58
2/1/1987 2.1 7.25 5.15
3/1/1987 3 7.25 4.25
4/1/1987 3.8 8.02 4.22
5/1/1987 3.9 8.61 4.71
6/1/1987 3.7 8.4 4.7
7/1/1987 3.9 8.45 4.55
8/1/1987 4.3 8.76 4.46
9/1/1987 4.4 9.42 5.02
10/1/1987 4.5 9.52 5.02
11/1/1987 4.5 8.86 4.36
12/1/1987 4.4 8.99 4.59
1/1/1988 4 8.67 4.67
2/1/1988 3.9 8.21 4.31
3/1/1988 3.9 8.37 4.47
4/1/1988 3.9 8.72 4.82
5/1/1988 3.9 9.09 5.19
6/1/1988 4 8.92 4.92
7/1/1988 4.1 9.06 4.96
8/1/1988 4 9.26 5.26
9/1/1988 4.2 8.98 4.78
10/1/1988 4.2 8.8 4.6
11/1/1988 4.2 8.96 4.76
12/1/1988 4.4 9.11 4.71
1/1/1989 4.7 9.09 4.39
2/1/1989 4.8 9.17 4.37
3/1/1989 5 9.36 4.36
4/1/1989 5.1 9.18 4.08
5/1/1989 5.4 8.86 3.46
6/1/1989 5.2 8.28 3.08
7/1/1989 5 8.02 3.02
8/1/1989 4.7 8.11 3.41
9/1/1989 4.3 8.19 3.89
10/1/1989 4.5 8.01 3.51
11/1/1989 4.7 7.87 3.17
12/1/1989 4.6 7.84 3.24
1/1/1990 5.2 8.21 3.01
2/1/1990 5.3 8.47 3.17
3/1/1990 5.2 8.59 3.39
4/1/1990 4.7 8.79 4.09
5/1/1990 4.4 8.76 4.36
6/1/1990 4.7 8.48 3.78
7/1/1990 4.8 8.47 3.67
8/1/1990 5.6 8.75 3.15
9/1/1990 6.2 8.89 2.69
10/1/1990 6.3 8.72 2.42
11/1/1990 6.3 8.39 2.09
12/1/1990 6.1 8.08 1.98
1/1/1991 5.7 8.09 2.39
2/1/1991 5.3 7.85 2.55
3/1/1991 4.9 8.11 3.21
4/1/1991 4.9 8.04 3.14
5/1/1991 5 8.07 3.07
6/1/1991 4.7 8.28 3.58
7/1/1991 4.4 8.27 3.87
8/1/1991 3.8 7.9 4.1
9/1/1991 3.4 7.65 4.25
10/1/1991 2.9 7.53 4.63
11/1/1991 3 7.42 4.42
12/1/1991 3.1 7.09 3.99
1/1/1992 2.6 7.03 4.43
2/1/1992 2.8 7.34 4.54
3/1/1992 3.2 7.54 4.34
4/1/1992 3.2 7.48 4.28
5/1/1992 3 7.39 4.39
6/1/1992 3.1 7.26 4.16
7/1/1992 3.2 6.84 3.64
8/1/1992 3.1 6.59 3.49
9/1/1992 3 6.42 3.42
10/1/1992 3.2 6.59 3.39
11/1/1992 3 6.87 3.87
12/1/1992 2.9 6.77 3.87
1/1/1993 3.3 6.6 3.3
2/1/1993 3.2 6.26 3.06
3/1/1993 3.1 5.98 2.88
4/1/1993 3.2 5.97 2.77
5/1/1993 3.2 6.04 2.84
6/1/1993 3 5.96 2.96
7/1/1993 2.8 5.81 3.01
8/1/1993 2.8 5.68 2.88
9/1/1993 2.7 5.36 2.66
10/1/1993 2.8 5.33 2.53
11/1/1993 2.7 5.72 3.02
12/1/1993 2.7 5.77 3.07
1/1/1994 2.5 5.75 3.25
2/1/1994 2.5 5.97 3.47
3/1/1994 2.5 6.48 3.98
4/1/1994 2.4 6.97 4.57
5/1/1994 2.3 7.18 4.88
6/1/1994 2.5 7.1 4.6
7/1/1994 2.8 7.3 4.5
8/1/1994 2.9 7.24 4.34
9/1/1994 3 7.46 4.46
10/1/1994 2.6 7.74 5.14
11/1/1994 2.7 7.96 5.26
12/1/1994 2.7 7.81 5.11
1/1/1995 2.8 7.78 4.98
2/1/1995 2.9 7.47 4.57
3/1/1995 2.9 7.2 4.3
4/1/1995 3.1 7.06 3.96
5/1/1995 3.2 6.63 3.43
6/1/1995 3 6.17 3.17
7/1/1995 2.8 6.28 3.48
8/1/1995 2.6 6.49 3.89
9/1/1995 2.5 6.2 3.7
10/1/1995 2.8 6.04 3.24
11/1/1995 2.6 5.93 3.33
12/1/1995 2.5 5.71 3.21
1/1/1996 2.7 5.65 2.95
2/1/1996 2.7 5.81 3.11
3/1/1996 2.8 6.27 3.47
4/1/1996 2.9 6.51 3.61
5/1/1996 2.9 6.74 3.84
6/1/1996 2.8 6.91 4.11
7/1/1996 3 6.87 3.87
8/1/1996 2.9 6.64 3.74
9/1/1996 3 6.83 3.83
10/1/1996 3 6.53 3.53
11/1/1996 3.3 6.2 2.9
12/1/1996 3.3 6.3 3
1/1/1997 3 6.58 3.58
2/1/1997 3 6.42 3.42
3/1/1997 2.8 6.69 3.89
4/1/1997 2.5 6.89 4.39
5/1/1997 2.2 6.71 4.51
6/1/1997 2.3 6.49 4.19
7/1/1997 2.2 6.22 4.02
8/1/1997 2.2 6.3 4.1
9/1/1997 2.2 6.21 4.01
10/1/1997 2.1 6.03 3.93
11/1/1997 1.8 5.88 4.08
12/1/1997 1.7 5.81 4.11
1/1/1998 1.6 5.54 3.94
2/1/1998 1.4 5.57 4.17
3/1/1998 1.4 5.65 4.25
4/1/1998 1.4 5.64 4.24
5/1/1998 1.7 5.65 3.95
6/1/1998 1.7 5.5 3.8
7/1/1998 1.7 5.46 3.76
8/1/1998 1.6 5.34 3.74
9/1/1998 1.5 4.81 3.31
10/1/1998 1.5 4.53 3.03
11/1/1998 1.5 4.83 3.33
12/1/1998 1.6 4.65 3.05
1/1/1999 1.7 4.72 3.02
2/1/1999 1.6 5 3.4
3/1/1999 1.7 5.23 3.53
4/1/1999 2.3 5.18 2.88
5/1/1999 2.1 5.54 3.44
6/1/1999 2 5.9 3.9
7/1/1999 2.1 5.79 3.69
8/1/1999 2.3 5.94 3.64
9/1/1999 2.6 5.92 3.32
10/1/1999 2.6 6.11 3.51
11/1/1999 2.6 6.03 3.43
12/1/1999 2.7 6.28 3.58
1/1/2000 2.7 6.66 3.96
2/1/2000 3.2 6.52 3.32
3/1/2000 3.8 6.26 2.46
4/1/2000 3.1 5.99 2.89
5/1/2000 3.2 6.44 3.24
6/1/2000 3.7 6.1 2.4
7/1/2000 3.7 6.05 2.35
8/1/2000 3.4 5.83 2.43
9/1/2000 3.5 5.8 2.3
10/1/2000 3.4 5.74 2.34
11/1/2000 3.4 5.72 2.32
12/1/2000 3.4 5.24 1.84
1/1/2001 3.7 5.16 1.46
2/1/2001 3.5 5.1 1.6
3/1/2001 2.9 4.89 1.99
4/1/2001 3.3 5.14 1.84
5/1/2001 3.6 5.39 1.79
6/1/2001 3.2 5.28 2.08
7/1/2001 2.7 5.24 2.54
8/1/2001 2.7 4.97 2.27
9/1/2001 2.6 4.73 2.13
10/1/2001 2.1 4.57 2.47
11/1/2001 1.9 4.65 2.75
12/1/2001 1.6 5.09 3.49
1/1/2002 1.1 5.04 3.94
2/1/2002 1.1 4.91 3.81
3/1/2002 1.5 5.28 3.78
4/1/2002 1.6 5.21 3.61
5/1/2002 1.2 5.16 3.96
6/1/2002 1.1 4.93 3.83
7/1/2002 1.5 4.65 3.15
8/1/2002 1.8 4.26 2.46
9/1/2002 1.5 3.87 2.37
10/1/2002 2 3.94 1.94
11/1/2002 2.2 4.05 1.85
12/1/2002 2.4 4.03 1.63
1/1/2003 2.6 4.05 1.45
2/1/2003 3 3.9 0.9
3/1/2003 3 3.81 0.81
4/1/2003 2.2 3.96 1.76
5/1/2003 2.1 3.57 1.47
6/1/2003 2.1 3.33 1.23
7/1/2003 2.1 3.98 1.88
8/1/2003 2.2 4.45 2.25
9/1/2003 2.3 4.27 1.97
10/1/2003 2 4.29 2.29
11/1/2003 1.8 4.3 2.5
12/1/2003 1.9 4.27 2.37
1/1/2004 1.9 4.15 2.25
2/1/2004 1.7 4.08 2.38
3/1/2004 1.7 3.83 2.13
4/1/2004 2.3 4.35 2.05
5/1/2004 3.1 4.72 1.62
6/1/2004 3.3 4.73 1.43
7/1/2004 3 4.5 1.5
8/1/2004 2.7 4.28 1.58
9/1/2004 2.5 4.13 1.63
10/1/2004 3.2 4.1 0.9
11/1/2004 3.5 4.19 0.69
12/1/2004 3.3 4.23 0.93
1/1/2005 3 4.22 1.22
2/1/2005 3 4.17 1.17
3/1/2005 3.1 4.5 1.4
4/1/2005 3.5 4.34 0.84
5/1/2005 2.8 4.14 1.34
6/1/2005 2.5 4 1.5
7/1/2005 3.2 4.18 0.98
8/1/2005 3.6 4.26 0.66
9/1/2005 4.7 4.2 -0.5
10/1/2005 4.3 4.46 0.16
11/1/2005 3.5 4.54 1.04
12/1/2005 3.4 4.47 1.07
1/1/2006 4 4.42 0.42
2/1/2006 3.6 4.57 0.97
3/1/2006 3.4 4.72 1.32
4/1/2006 3.5 4.99 1.49
5/1/2006 4.2 5.11 0.91
6/1/2006 4.3 5.11 0.81
7/1/2006 4.1 5.09 0.99
8/1/2006 3.8 4.88 1.08
9/1/2006 2.1 4.72 2.62
10/1/2006 1.3 4.73 3.43
11/1/2006 2 4.6 2.6
12/1/2006 2.5 4.56 2.06
1/1/2007 2.1 4.76 2.66
2/1/2007 2.4 4.72 2.32
3/1/2007 2.8 4.56 1.76
4/1/2007 2.6 4.69 2.09
5/1/2007 2.7 4.75 2.05
6/1/2007 2.7 5.1 2.4
7/1/2007 2.4 5 2.6
8/1/2007 2 4.67 2.67
9/1/2007 2.8 4.52 1.72
10/1/2007 3.5 4.53 1.03
11/1/2007 4.3 4.15 -0.15
12/1/2007 4.1 4.1 0
1/1/2008 4.3 3.74 -0.56
2/1/2008 4 3.74 -0.26
3/1/2008 4 3.51 -0.49
4/1/2008 3.9 3.68 -0.22
5/1/2008 4.2 3.88 -0.32
6/1/2008 5 4.1 -0.9
7/1/2008 5.6 4.01 -1.59
8/1/2008 5.4 3.89 -1.51
9/1/2008 4.9 3.69 -1.21
10/1/2008 3.7 3.81 0.11
11/1/2008 1.1 3.53 2.43
12/1/2008 0.1 2.42 2.32
1/1/2009 0 2.52 2.52
2/1/2009 0.2 2.87 2.67
3/1/2009 -0.4 2.82 3.22
4/1/2009 -0.7 2.93 3.63
5/1/2009 -1.3 3.29 4.59
6/1/2009 -1.4 3.72 5.12
7/1/2009 -2.1 3.56 5.66
8/1/2009 -1.5 3.59 5.09
9/1/2009 -1.3 3.4 4.7
10/1/2009 -0.2 3.39 3.59
11/1/2009 1.8 3.4 1.6
12/1/2009 2.7 3.59 0.89
1/1/2010 2.6 3.73 1.13
2/1/2010 2.1 3.69 1.59
3/1/2010 2.3 3.73 1.43
4/1/2010 2.2 3.85 1.65
5/1/2010 2 3.42 1.42
6/1/2010 1.1 3.2 2.1
7/1/2010 1.2 3.01 1.81
8/1/2010 1.1 2.7 1.6
9/1/2010 1.1 2.65 1.55
10/1/2010 1.2 2.54 1.34
11/1/2010 1.1 2.76 1.66
12/1/2010 1.5 3.29 1.79
1/1/2011 1.6 3.39 1.79
2/1/2011 2.1 3.58 1.48
3/1/2011 2.7 3.41 0.71
4/1/2011 3.2 3.46 0.26
5/1/2011 3.6 3.17 -0.43
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