Skip to main content
No. of Recommendations: 11
Batteries might turn out to be this century's biggest news because energy is what makes life and all its emerging properties possible. Over the millennia energy technology has transformed humanity starting with fire to cook our meals to global electrification in the near future. One of the hurdles that electrification has, maybe the biggest one, is storage. This century seems to be the one when batteries cross the chasm. The race is on.

I've heard some hype about solid state batteries but I don't (yet) understand the technology. One advantage being touted is the absence of the liquid electrolyte. Tesla new 4680 battery cells don't have a liquid electrolyte yet they don't qualify as solid state. In the linked article the CEO says that VW will that using the new solid state batteries in 2025 and that gives Tesla a four year lead.

The interview with the CEO is very interesting.

EV battery developer QuantumScape begins trading on NYSE

QuantumScape (QS), a battery developer for electric vehicle use, began trading on the New York Stock Exchange today following a SPAC merger. Shares of the San Jose-based company were up 49% in early trading during.

QuantumScape is aiming to commercialize its solid-state lithium metal batteries which it claims provide a greater range, a much faster charge time and are safer and more cost effective than conventional technologies used today.

The company is backed by Microsoft (MSFT) co-founder Bill Gates and Volkswagen (VOW.DE). Former Tesla (TSLA) Chief Technology Officer JB Straubel is currently a QuantumScope board member.

Production of the batteries is several years away with Volkswagen aiming to install them in vehicles by 2025.


The most interesting quote is:

“Whoever wins the battery battle, so to speak, is going to be looking at, in our opinion, a multi hundred billion dollar company,” said Singh prior to the listing.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ev-battery-developer-quantum-...

Denny Schlesinger
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Sounds very interesting and i agree batteries may be this century's new play

Considering that do you consider investing in this space?
Could QS be the leader in this space?.
I do not know much about batteries but will be interestingto find out what seperate this company from its competitors and who exactly is the competitor.

Bella
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 8
Considering that do you consider investing in this space?
Could QS be the leader in this space?.
I do not know much about batteries but will be interestingto find out what seperate this company from its competitors and who exactly is the competitor.


Good question! Innovation in auto-making is happening at warp speed in batteries, materials, manufacturing methods, charging, marketing and even in raising capital. One hundred years ago there were hundreds of car brands and most are distant memories. Creative destruction. As investors we don't want to be in the "destruction" part of the equation.

Posted to the Gilder forum - 3/31/2001
The Internet and the Telecosm are alive and well.


Since I assembled this collection of links to vintage cars a year and a half ago, many of the links have died or disappeared. I have updated some and removed others so that you don't waste your time going to dead links. Enjoy! Denny, Oct 10, 2002.


https://softwaretimes.com/files/the%20internet%20and%20the%2...

The Crystal Ball is a hoax! There is no way to predict the future. We can only know what is happening in the present. Unless you are an Angel or Venture Capital investor you have no business buying these startups, no matter how beguiling the Siren Song, until they prove themselves. The good news is that there is a tried and true method of detecting the right time to invest, after the industry, innovation, or product has Crossed The Chasm.

Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers by Geoffrey A. Moore, Regis McKenna (Foreword)

Here is the bestselling guide that created a new game plan for marketing in high-tech industries. Crossing the Chasm has become the bible for bringing cutting-edge products to progressively larger markets. This edition provides new insights into the realities of high-tech marketing, with special emphasis on the Internet. It's essential reading for anyone with a stake in the world's most exciting marketplace.


https://www.amazon.com/dp/B000FC119W/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?...


Investing is not a get rich game for most of us, it's build your nest, build your old age safety net game. Back in 2000 I decided to double my portfolio just one more time before retiring, it had been so so easy! Instead I lost 90%. I have yet to recover! At least I was not stupid enough to mortgage my home to buy even more stock on margin so I survived.

I'll be posting more EV innovations because they are very interesting but that does not make them investible until after they have crossed the chasm. In the case of QuantumScape I wrote:

In the linked article the CEO says that VW will that using the new solid state batteries in 2025 and that gives Tesla a four year lead.

In four years QuantumScape might be a memory like most of the cars of a century ago.

Denny Schlesinger
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
I always learn so much from your posts and answers.

I will be looking through that book too.
and yes investing is not a get rich quick scheme. the time it takes to set the nest and build upon it day by day.
Wish i had started earlier since i have always been interested. I didnt, didn t know how to get started but i have learned so much in the last two years since i have found MF, these boards and well yours Saul and others posts that you all were part of what i was thankful for on Thanksgiving.

Thank you Denny, 😊
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
“Whoever wins the battery battle, so to speak, is going to be looking at, in our opinion, a multi hundred billion dollar company,” said Singh prior to the listing.

Pretty safe bet, given that Tesla already is the multi hundred billion dollar company that is the battery battle winner.

Tesla Model 3:
0 to 100 kph: 5.6 sec
Range (EPA) 354 km
Battery: 54 kWh
Price: €43,000

VW ID 3:
0 to 100 kph: 10 sec
Range combined city/highway: 235 km
Battery 45 kWh
Price: €30,000
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 13
All,

I happen to have had some experience investing in battery companies at a company I worked for. Over the course of a decade and several investments, none turned out positively.

And yes we had battery, chemistry and solid state experts in the mix.

Generally speaking, battery energy density [a key metric for battery design] improves a few percent a year. And then every couple of decades or so a new chemistry is proven and taken to market for a stair step improvement. Maybe 20-30%. And yes the industry is overdue for the stair stepped improvement.

Personally, I would only invest in a battery company after its technology has been proven. Yes, you may miss a 100 bagger, but you'll be investing in a known winner and not another hoped for winner.

A 2 cent post.

Regards
Ragnar
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Batteries are mostly about chemistry, and chemistry is a mature science. So what Ragnar said is right, and at this point the usual 7% or so annual improvement has leveled off. Batteries for cars have desired characteristics that must be balanced off, so much of the emphasis will go into making battery packs (the key) cheaper while maintaining the pace of making them better, more efficient. . See Tesla' battery day presentation.
I have a 2014 Tesla S and this 7+ year old battery design gets the job done. But it is too expensive for mass use.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 3
Batteries are mostly about chemistry, and chemistry is a mature science.

The move to the 4680 model battery cell has some chemistry and lots of other innovation

1. Dry process
2. Tab-less
3. Larger diameter
4. Vertical cooling
5. Continuous manufacturing
6. Integral battery pack

What this means is that any advantage gained by better chemistry (silicon anodes?) is leveraged by less weight, lower manufacturing costs, and improved performance.

The other factor is that 4680 is practically here while QS solid state is at least four years away. But don't rest on your laurels. Apple is introducing ARM RISC chips to Macs displacing CISC chips. While RISC disrupted CISC in simpler applications over two decades ago, it took over two decades to disrupt CISC in laptops and desktops.

Seen from an investing point of view, for the time being 4680 is the winner but disruption happens.

Denny Schlesinger
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1
Batteries are mostly about chemistry, and chemistry is a mature science.

The move to the 4680 model battery cell has some chemistry and lots of other innovation


Both are true. Chemical, and non-chemical innovation.

But chemistry step-changes are unlikely. Because lithium is the smallest, lightest metal atom with an easily-ionizable electron. Small (thus dense energy-packing), light, and ionizable are key advantages for cars especially (and computers).

Lithium ion just can’t be beat, unless you’re going to create a new element in the periodic table.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
considering that a 2012 Tesla S 85 had 426 km range the 2021 VW range of 235 Km does not seem very impressive in 2021. Of course the VW is a lot cheaper. But a new VW ID 3 sells for about the same as a used 2014 Tesla S, a vastly better car.
BEV ranges are calculated differently in the US and the EO so comparisons might not be fair
.
THe VW also does not seem to get as many miles per kWh of battery as the Tesla 3. Indicating inefficiency somewhere. But it is a start and it probably will do well on the EU where chargers are more frequent and distances shorter. In the US the shortage of CCS fast chargers and the shortish range will mean its highway use will be limited mostly to coastal areas.
But it does cost less, a big factor in any country. So it will probably sell well.
.
BTW that VW 0-100km acceleration is slower than my 1956 Chevy (V8 4bbl carb dual exhaust stick shift).

Should Tesla be aiming for such a reduced performance BEV in order to cut costs? Or should it wait until it can offer quicker acceleration and at least 300- 350 km range?
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1
Should Tesla be aiming for such a reduced performance BEV in order to cut costs? Or should it wait until it can offer quicker acceleration and at least 300- 350 km range?

This slow acceleration of ID.3 is shocking (10 seconds to go from zero to 100 kph). Slower than my lumbering VW Touran. They’ve foregone one of the most valuable advantages of a BEV. Big mistake in my opinion.

I test drove the e-Golf a few years ago and it was delightful to drive, with quick acceleration (but not much range). I had high hopes for the ID.3. But this, dashes them. A big step backwards.
Print the post Back To Top