Skip to main content
Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
No. of Recommendations: 1
Has there been any white papers/reports accomplished stating how/what is the convincing arguments for replacing existing power lines (above and below ground)? ie. I'm a city leader and AMSC comes to me and says, "Hey, I got a great deal on some cables for ya. For the low, low price of XXX I'll save you XXX by replacing your out of date non-efficient cables with my 90% efficient cables."

Also, any projected value placed on designing large ship electro-motors?

I have to admit, replacing every power cable in the US could get pretty exciting.

tigerpaw
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 2
I have to admit, replacing every power cable in the US could get pretty exciting.

Don't hold your breath on this one. As Yurek said in the last conf call, it'll be 10-15 years before that begins to happen. In the meantime we'll see serious action on the SMES, underground cable, motors, generators, transformer, power conditioning for all the above. All of which should provide for excellent growth and profitability within the next 2-3 years. This is clearly a long term buy and hold so don't expect quick returns.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1
tigerpaw:

Reference your question: "Also, any projected value placed on designing large ship electro-motors?"

During the last conference call Mr. Yurek stated that the HTS motor is a "distruptive technology" and that ship propulsion is a "killer application." He stated the 2020 market for ship propulsion to be $2B-$4B annually world-wide. He also stated that the 5000HP prototype for industrial application would be ready this summer, and that he expects additional contracts for prototypes this year.

Tim
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 5
Has there been any white papers/reports accomplished stating how/what is the convincing arguments for replacing existing power lines (above and below ground)? ie. I'm a city leader and AMSC comes to me and says, "Hey, I got a great deal on some cables for ya. For the low, low price of XXX I'll save you XXX by replacing your out of date non-efficient cables with my 90% efficient cables."

Where I live in eastern Ontario Canada, most if not all new subdivisions have their utilities underground. We still remember the ice storm of 1998, and slowly but surely underground cables are becoming the norm.

It cost a significant amount to introduce underground cables where there are above ground wires; but there seems to be a never ending amount of construction in my city. They dig up the street to lay new sewers one year, and the next year they dig it up again to lay new telephone lines, and the year after that they dig it up again for power lines, etc.

Greg Yurek gave a presentation at Powercosm II 2000, in which he mentioned the following.

AMSC and Pirelli have installed HTS cables for Detroit Edison at their Frisbie substation. There were 9 copper cables carrying 100MW of power across the substation from a high-voltage transformer to distribution switchgear.

Each of the 9 cables is actually inside a 4" diameter conduit. 3 HTS cables/conduits will carry the same 100MW of power. To double the power capacity of the Frisbie substation, it is only necessary to pull in three more HTS cables, and there will still be 3 conduits left open that can be used for other assets such as high-speed internet or telecom cables.


It may take time before we see wide use of HTS cables, but there seem to be a number of advantages to them.

Good Luck.

Paul
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Thank you folks. Obviously I have some more digging to do. I guess my main thrust initially is finding what is going to keep this company 'up' until the major cable replacement and HTS ship motor biz arrives.


Thank you,

tigerpaw
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
During the last conference call Mr. Yurek stated that the HTS motor is a "distruptive technology" and that ship propulsion is a "killer application." He stated the 2020 market for ship propulsion to be $2B-$4B annually world-wide. He also stated that the 5000HP prototype for industrial application would be ready this summer, and that he expects additional contracts for prototypes this year.

Tim


Remember too that Yurek said the 5000 hp motor was a "proprietary design". My take on that phrasing is that not only will AMSC benefit from the sale of the wire that goes into the motor but that anyone wishing to manufacture the motor will be paying royalties to AMSC for the use of this design. Hopefully, we'll also see some patents on the design of the HTS motor.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1
Thank you folks. Obviously I have some more digging to do. I guess my main thrust initially is finding what is going to keep this company 'up' until the major cable replacement and HTS ship motor biz arrives.

First it will be SMES and DSMES along with the power conditioning required for each. Than it will be underground cable. That will take us into 2002 when the new HTS factory will be complete and capacity will have increased by a factor of 20 or more and costs will go down dramatically. Keep in mind that Yurek was clear in saying they would not achieve company wide profitability until 2004. For those expecting this stock to produce strong returns in the near future (1-2- years) best you wait a year or so before jumping in with all fours. This will be slow coming and is still fraught with major risk. For myself, I like the management team, the technology, the partners they lined up, the results they've produced to date and most of all the enormous potential. Last but not least, I like the fact that for the past 1 1/2 years I've held the stock, I've yet to see anything that would suggest the management is playing any games. So far, I trust them (but always with a wary eye).
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 4
I have to admit, replacing every power cable in the US could get pretty exciting.


Don't get too excited just yet. It doesn't make good sense to replace every power cable with HTS material. Look back through some of the older postings and you'll see mention of 'constrained' transmission lines and 'overloaded' systems. There's enough of these to make good money, without chasing the marginal applications like residential distribution.

I expect HTS conductors to peacefully coexist with copper and aluminum conductors in the overall power system. The engineers will just have a much higher current density conductor available, at a reasonable price, for certain applications.

Steve
Print the post Back To Top