Skip to main content
No. of Recommendations: 1

The OP asks a perennially asked question, "How long will it take for XYZ to recover?"

Obviously, no one can say with certainty, given that no one know what the future will be. But it's possible to make contingent projections, based on either fundamentals or technicals. So, do this. At FreeChart, plot APC with weekly bars and a 3-year look back. Next, create enough white space to the right of current prices that a trendline can be projected into the future off the three recent lows. It takes until 2025 before price tags $54.

Obvious, going forward, APC can do worse than it's presently doing, just as it can do better. (I.e., the "cone of uncertainty"). But the expectation should be that it will pretty much do whatever it's currently doing, which means a long, long wait before prices get back to the OP's entry point. Meanwhile, of course, inflation has been eroding purchasing power, creating steady losses.

As traders say --and as "investors" should learn to say-- "Your first loss is your best loss." If the market doesn't immediately confirm that your entry was correct, you need to admit that you made a bad bet and to fix the problem.
Print the post  


What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.