No. of Recommendations: 0
"Yeah, there are datasets that go back further than 1950. But that was a different world. WW2, Great Depression, etc."

Ok, thanks.

"Google is your friend. "s&P500 pe ratio""

Thanks, for the link, glad my memory was right.

"I have a copy of a FED paper which says, "Campbell and Shiller found that higher P/E
ratios are usually followed by lower stock price growth during the following decade."
Decade. Yes. But we're talking about long-term mortgage periods -- 25 & 30 years.

Another FED paper says, "The forward P/E should not be taken as an infallible indicator of where prices will move. Since 2006, the S&P forward P/E ratio has generally remained below its 15-year average and well below the highs seen in the 1990s. In particular, the ratio did not increase substantially before the 2007-2008 financial crisis and did not provide a strong signal before the subsequent bear market. More recently, the ratio has grown at a markedly slower rate than the S&P 500 stock index, perhaps suggesting that stock prices have been justified by higher expected earnings."

I hear you on all this. Certainly it is tough to categorically argue for what forward returns will be, either on economic beliefs for historical data. I gave my opinions, and that is all they are.

"Notwithstanding all that..."

Agree with your final notes. Clearly, historically, this has been a pretty low bar to surpass.

Thanks for sharing your rationale.
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