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"I disagree with notion of luck completely. Luck enters into the picture in a far more direct manner like having an accident. That is luck."


While you might disagree 100% with the idea of luck....I do not. I can not give a percentage but after studying this for over 20 years, I do believe there are some elements of random factors at work. You can't look at one example to decide this but must look at many. One case will give you a 100% outlook on your point of view but looking at many cases you will find anamolies in there where luck has played a factor. Whether it is 1% or 10% or 50%, I do not know but I doubt seriously that there is 100% evidence of no random factors influencing results of highly competent people on this earth.

I do believe skill is involved in many endeavors but luck is also involved too.

Take a guy like Warren Buffett. I know many people think Warren is like God and makes no "mistakes" but if you look at the sum of his whole investment history, he has made more than a few mistakes, even though, he made careful study of the industry, country, company....whatever. He just makes less mistakes than many but he does make "mistakes". He has also been "lucky" or "fortunate" that up until now his mistakes have not seriously impacted his wealth building machine.

I maintain that Warren has some elements of luck working for him. He plays a high risk game with a element of luck in it.

For awhile, it looked like Eddie Lampert was the second coming of Warren Buffett. At least that is what people said.......but now it remains to be seen what Lampert could do with Sears. What happened to Sears is very unlucky and perhaps Eddie will make Sears another Berkshire but perhaps not. He faces a "Live or Die" moment with Sears.

There is a reason that there is only one Buffett. If it were simple...Why everyone could do it. There is some skill involved yes.....but extra ordinarily skilled persons have failed before.

Einstein failed in his attempt to find a Universal theory to govern the Universe.....so instead we are stuck in a mostly quantumn mechanics universe where people look at probability factors.

Personally, I never factor in 100% probability of something happening nor do I factor in a zero probability of something happening. Simply because I have found that by putting something in a different frame of reference, one can make virtually any rule work or make it obselete.

I still maintain it is a bull market in commodities. You are looking at a frame of maybe 1-3 years but I am looking at a frame of around 5 to 15 years.

Also...while commodities are risky....you must look at that as a rule of the past. The more scarce a resource becomes....the less risky it will be to invest in it. The main risk is the total replacement of the commodity.

In the next 5 to 50 years....the world in general is going to struggle for solutions to things like food shortages and energy shortages. The big one is water shortage. I have not found a really good investment in water except for PICO but by the time I was going to invest in it...it had already moved. I have not looked at that one for awhile now.

Right now, I am sitting in the engineroom of a ship writing this....I am watching a evaporator make water. I am looking at all the substances that are necesarry for our way of life. Did you know ships have lots of zinc on them. Among other things Zinc is used as a anode on a ship to prevent corrosion. Some think Zinc will be impacted forever...loking at the way prices are going but I know they won't. Zinc is a valuable substance. I am investing in companies that deal with that substance.....and others also.

Investing over 15 year time frame...more likely than not...I will be proven not to be "wrong" about commodities and it is just as likely that I will do just as well as your investing method...if not better.

There is no way to tell. I also use odds when investing. I never go 100% in. I am invested in Telcoms, Healthcare, Technology and other things. I don't use strict formulas though. If I think I got a better shot at making a profit I might overweight....I go by feel...instinct.

You use the odds too. Despite your "predictions"...you don't fully believe them...If you did then you would short the market or you would have sold everything and waited for your exact predictions to come true before entering the market again....but instead of doing that you continued to invest because like virtually everyone that invests...they know there is no sure thing....which is basically what this whole thread has been about.

Ok...I got to go.....very limited time.



Rob S
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