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"I disagree with the notion of calling Buffet lucky. Information reduces risk and he studies companies for years before making a purchase. There are others at TMF who almost always make the right choice. Look at TMF1000 who retired at the age of 40, Bill Mann who made a killing in several of his ventures (read his interview). Look at Bills's personal portfolio. Superb choices for years capped with a BRKA. Read the earlier posts of Gardner brothers to get an idea of the killing they made in the stock market. Seth Jayson made the call for a collapse in 2007 and acted upon it and probably made a killing. All a product of exhaustive research and correct (not lucky) analysis. Reading all these people and the boards for so long gave me some foresight into making my decisions."


Nice post...I maintain all that you have mentioned were also lucky. They all have intangibles. They all have skill.....but I also maintain that they had elements of luck working for them whether they would want to admit it or not.

You are talking about a top class of investors. Maybe these investors are in the top 20% of investors around. There are many more investors that have tried maybe similar methods and failed. They just did not have the right luck, divine guidance, miracle or whatever one wants to call it working for them.

Unlike you...I can not give examples because many of those people tend not to be hanging out posting on the Fool's boards. Many failures do not want their names known.

One of the reasons I know this is because a long time ago I got involved with Network Marketing...things similar to Amway. People should join a Network Marketing group just to see what I am talking about. In Network Marketing meetings everyone is taught the same exact methods in which to recruit.

There are some people that no matter which network marketing group they join will always rise to the top producer. There are certain people that using the same exact methods can not recruit even one person.

I used to ask myself why this is???....and I never figured it out...Maybe people carry a aura...maybe luck...just don't know. I also came across the 20-80 rule in Network marketing. 20 percent of the people make 80% of the profit is what that means.

That RULE probably maybe also applies to investing....I have not looked at statistics but it would be interesting to see if the top 20% of investors make 80% of the money. Maybe that is something I will look up one day if I have time. Then again maybe that RULE does not apply for RULES only have meaning depending on the FRAME that they are in.



Rob S
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