NVDA - 2nd thoughts, or maybe 3rd

“I don’t remember anyone expressing any negatives or worries about the company.”

The negative case is not too hard to imagine. The bulk of compute workload (AI included) are moving to a few large cloud providers who operate at the scale where they can run a hardware R&D program to design their own ASICs, which are intrinsically better suited for the workload than GPUs. Google has TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) and Apple is reportedly close to announcing Apple Neural Engine. In terms of other competition, Intel recently purchased Nervana which was also designing a custom ASIC. Even if GPUs are still used in the training phase, it’s a smaller part of the AI/ML pie.

Even if that’s not the case, they are selling into terrible markets (cloud providers that have lots of leverage over suppliers and automobile components).

On top of that, they are 10x next years estimated sales. Priced for perfection.

Final note: cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic need for mining at all. It exists to gamify network participation by introducing artificial difficult with a large reward in order to increase the number of network participants. If a large retailer or fintech company was to operate it’s own private blockchain there’s no reason they’d impose artificial constraints on block hashes (which is what requires the GPUs). Anyway, even looking at Bitcoin miners, they’ve all moved onto ASICs, too.

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