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"I have been predicting oil at $60 and Dow at 7000 for a while now. Getting close....


That is only one of your predictions and if you had thought that prediction was 100% sure of coming true then why invest in stocks at all?? You would be probably close to 100% short the market if you thought that prediction was a certainty.

The truth is for the most part is that people only give educated guesses about what is going to happen for the most part. If their educated guess comes true then they give themselves a pat on the back.

If their educated guess does not come true then they hope people forget they made that guess....

Bill Mann could have just as easily been "right" on FMD and PRS but events beyond what he factored in made him "wrong" on those stocks.

There is virtually nothing that is a total certainty and I doubt many people truly deep down believe in 100% certainties or else they would bet that way 100%.

Even the bet that the Dow will make 7000 and oil $60 is not certain. Despite all the gloom and doom a totally unrelated event that no one can forsee could change the whole equation.

There is a element of "luck" (good or bad) or "random factors" or "Divine intervention" or whatever one wants to call it in the market.

To be a good stock picker takes some skill.....some rules....some good organization or systems of investing but it also takes luck.

Warren Buffett is extraordinarily lucky I say. Yes, he has skill but he has a great deal of luck on his side also. There are intangibles to what he does. There are some that use his methods and have little success and others that are wildly succesful.

Just like there are some that join Motley Fool and seem to be unlucky and pick all the "wrong" stocks....while some seem to choose all the "right" ones.

Some people have systems that work great for them. Some have systems of investing designed to beat the odds but I still maintain that if another person comes along and uses the same exact system of investing that one person uses so succesfully that there is no guarantee of success because there is some element of what people call "luck" involved. The odds become stronger over time that using the same methods will produce winners but still no guarantee.....

I would say the chances are good that the events of this week are not the start of Armegeddon but I do so with the knowledge that one day a real Armegeddon will come....maybe it is 50,000 years from now or maybe it is tomorrow.....a random event such as a meteor hitting the earth could happen a hour from now and all concerns about stock market indices could become moot as we are thrown back into the Dinosaur age....totally random event...most don't factor it in because it seems remote....but it is in the remote event that the agents of chaos enter the room.

Rob S
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