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"I think you make a logical error in assuming that the GA governor and the TX senate race are good analogs for 2020 POTUS.... One could just as easily say that Abbott's win in TX (55-43) which was also a statewide race is the proper analog to 2020."

Certainly true if the republicans nominate someone like Greg Abbott for president. If it is someone like Ted Cruz, or worse yet Donald Trump, copnsider that the population of Texas is 47% Hispanic, 12% Black and 5% other minorities. Texas became a majority minority state a while ago... just like California. California democrats were fortunate enough to have Pete Wilson, a republican governor, that turned its Hispanic population solidly democrat. There hasn't been an organizing force in Texas, positive or negative. Trump 2020 could be that organizing force.

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