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"Probability is a way of life but it should not be tied to luck. The outcome of a probabilistic event cannot be termed as luck. Rather it should be treated as expected at some level. We can discuss on this endlessly but I think this is where the cruz of our argument is: probability vs luck. The definition of success must used probability in a hedged manner to make it free from luck other than events like: birth lottery, disease, death, accidents etc.

Regarding commodities: I am already back in at rock bottom prices. Will sell again at the upcyle. Absolutely no long term investing in commodities for me. I have seen way too many people loose their shirts over commodities."

Some regard Warren Buffett having more skill than luck in regard to gaining wealth but the question is how would you regard Paris Hilton???

I would say much more luck than skill.

I see you exclude from success certain events like birth but the cosmos includes exclusions or distinctions but we can define things to make things our own reality and our own point of view.

Some people call luck different things. Some people call it Divine Intervention. Other people call it God. There are just some things that can not be explained. That are outside of even probability factors.

I don't believe man is free from luck...other forces in the universe are at work.....whether you call it luck or God or random events....there is a higher power than man that has a influence on events.

It took me a long time to come to that conclusion......I am sort of a agnostic but I came to that conclusion by studying for many years a devout atheist that lead me to believe that the guy was not as much a atheist as he implied.

I also study what a lot of physicist and sceintist say.....there is much debate on this topic. You are welcome to believe in a 100% determinstic way of life but not me...Being somewhat relavistic, I believe that there are frames or universes or whatever you want to call it where the rules of the determinstic way of life do not apply.

If you ever enter such a universe or frame you will definitely be confounded because the rules you hold so dearly will not work. That is why even though I debate things and seem opinionated, I have a more open mind than most...I have the allowance factor of being wrong and I realize there are universes where my "theories" do not apply.

When I enter such universes where "luck" or "God" or "Black Swan" whatever constricting label that people apply to such unexplained events...I am not confounded.

Physics used to frustrate me because when you begin to learn Physics they have all sorts of rules that they say can't be violated like the three laws of thermodynamics. I grew up being very much rule oriented...but the deeper you delve into physics the more you will find all sorts of rules being "violated" for instance our macro-rules do not apply very well on a atomic or quark level.

Many major religions do not like sceince much because they feel sceince is looking into the realms of what only God is supposed to know like how to create life the people who want to create clones say. Many also assume so that a lot of sceintist do not believe in God....that the system we believe in has a orderly set of rules where "God" or "random factor" or "luck" is not a factor.....but if you go into very high end physics...there are some...mind you not all....that theorize on the existence of the "random factor" or "God" so there is debate among the rule based scientific community in that which I speak of...It is not all 100%.

To speak of probability factors and then to deny the existence of another viewpoint breaks things down into a totally black and white universe where there is only Right and in between.

Me...I give you the allowance that you might be "right" simply because I never assign anything a 100% or 0% probability. I have a great deal of believe in quantumn mechanics.

As for commodities.....commodities are volatile and have a history. Some believe history is a circle going round and round. I believe history is much more than that. History repeats itself until it doesn't repeat itself.

It might not happen in my lifetime but I might live long enough to see some of the effects of the world's increasing population and the declining resources to support it all.

When you think of commodities, some think of just oil or metals....but me I see a world long in the future where even air might be a commodity. You might have bottled air in the supermarket being sold....One possibility. Water is a definite one but no one has thought about air...LOL...I think farther ahead than most because my mind looks at virtually every possibility.

Rob S
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