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"So why hasn't this been priced into the bond market already? The guy is using the exact same arguments that the permabears and goldbugs use."

jrr7,

In what way has this not been priced into the financial markets? Or do you think that only the self-delusional beliefs of ever-bulls should be priced? ROTFL

If markets are discounting mechanisms that are generally useful tools for price discovery, why would the bullishness, or bearishness (or foolishness) matter? The discounting is going to happen, and over- and under--estimating mistakes are going to be made. However, the consequences of the forecast are magnitudes apart. In one case, an opportunity is missed. In the other, devastation ensues. By and large, people insure against potential damage, not against potential gain.

Heeding well-reasoned forewarnings and taking precautionary steps is "buying insurance".




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