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"who cares what it's really worth..it's just a good bet it'll get bid up to 200."

Not to throw water on anyone's fire, but the number one criteria of any investor should be preservation of capital.
Who knows what can happen tomorrow. If the market suddenly turns down and you're sitting on an overvalued investment, you could be holding a loser for years.
You may say that you're a long term investor, but when you look at the stock price day after day and you're losing money eventually you'll sell.
I've been doing this for twenty years. And I've lost more money because I was impatient to get rich.
Be patient. You have over 9,000 stocks to choose from.
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