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No. of Recommendations: 13
Feel bad for the kiddos, but nice to have the home office to myself again the last couple of weeks.
August was largely a bummer, but the recent trade war truce has given me new hope for a Sept/Oct run, and then we can re-assess the macro market then.

From Saul's board recently, Bear posted that he follows mkt cap more than P/S. I tend to follow both as they go hand-in-hand when I try to visualize the napkin math upside a stock price has, regardless of how well the company may be executing. For example, ZM killing it, but already $23b and 50+ P/S, so I am not interested as an investment right now.

Just a few days ago, here were some numbers, and these were already off their highs (except maybe AYX & CRWD)
"Company Market Cap
Smartsheet 5.3b
Elastic 5.8b
MongoDB 8.3b
Alteryx 9.5b
Twilio 17.8b
The Trade Desk 11.1b
Square 26.5b
Zscaler 9.1b
Anaplan 7.5b
Pinterest 18.3b
Crowdstrike 17.2b"


Quite a few are much lower now. Possible buying opptys, depending on how much you like the company and the upside in the stock/mkt cap from these levels.

CRWD down on impressive rev growth over 12%, getting mkt cap down in $15b range. Yahoo hasn't updated their P/S yet, but it should now be in the upper 40s, down from 50s.

ZM down 5% and flat since May. Still a lofty $23b mkt cap, but after stellar ER results, their P/S has dropped to low 50s from 60-70 range previously.

It seemed many stocks have broached 30 P/S that are discussed here, and it was becoming the "new 20" practically, and that has subsided some. ZS, WORK, OKTA, and AYX are all straddling 29/30. OKTA and WORK both about 14-15b mkt cap, and AYX about $9b and ZS about $8b after PANW ER FUD attack. While AYX is near ATH and first approaching 30 for first time more or less, the other 3 had all been well over 30 in previous month or two.

With superior hyper-growth, it only takes a couple Q's for these stocks to reduce their P/S and it seems market, especially in a lumpy August, have recalibrated the multiples a bit. MDB was around 30 at peak and now "down" to 23 after their recent ER, as an example.

I wouldn't call any of them bargains, but with a (yet again) temporary trade truce and an expected-to-be accomodative Fed later this month, I think the overall markets will be positive. Could the hyper-growth sector get singularly punished? Possibly, but I think market will discriminate, and the companies I like most have had great ERs: TTD, ESTC, MDB, BZUN, and I expect ZS will do likewise next week.

My timing often sucks though, and my crystal ball was an open-box item from Kmart in '99.

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