Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
No. of Recommendations: 0
It appears that RCL may be worth entering. It is at the top of its recent downtrend. Granted, that's a bit of a risky move... but if it breaks through, it appears likely to create support and continue to move up. More aggressive buyers picked it up as it bounced off the bottom of its recent long term trend line. More jumped in as the MACD went positive and the stochatics rolled into positive territory. Volume is rising slightly and we've seen some solid spikes as various technical indicators have gone green.

Add to that that fuel appears to have more than a prayer's chance of getting cheaper. The recent hurricane season has not been as destructive as the trend suggested it might be. Passenger traffic is up. Profits are improving. Boomers are aging (and cruising). Only 16% of the American public has ever been on a cruise. The relative costs of cruising make it a reasonable value. Your hotel floats from place to place while you eat and sleep in relative comfort aboard a "all inclusive resort." Barriers to entry are high, considering the billion dollar capital cost of building a new ship as well as the long lead time it takes to actually order and then launch a ship (at least four to five years).

Insiders and large institutional money have both been net buyers at market (better than when they use $2.45 options to buy it). Mean analyst expectations indicate the stock should go to $45. Revisions to EPS forecasts could take it higher.

Seasonal disruptions caused by hurricanes and high oil prices are most of the reason why the stock was pummeled. Perhaps now is a good time to enter the stock. Any opinions?
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
artbros,

Passenger traffic is up.

It never went down, even after the "9/11" attack. Occupancy has been fairly constant, at a level solidly above 100%, for the past decade.

The downward trend in fuel prices, however, is quite significant. I expect that fuel prices will continue to decline, so that gasoline will be less than $2.00 per gallon in most of the United States by the election in November.

Norm.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Hi Norm,

Well, you pegged the gas price thing right on! Even Diesel is dropping.

So, what's your take on RCL nowadays?

In 2001, right after 9/11 this stock got down to around 7 or 8. I could only watch and wish, since DH had just lost his job and we were in survival mode.
Now, I'm looking to pick some up.

I love Royal Carribean cruises, and am way overdue for another one.

I appreciate any input...

Thanks,
T.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
T,

So, what's your take on RCL nowadays?

Strong buy. The company has a solid balance sheet, full ships wth significant pricing power over its competitors, and a lot of new capacity on order with no sign of difficulty filling it. It also just recently announced the acquisition of Pullmantur SA, a Spanish cruise and tour operator, which will close at the end of the year. Another rise in fuel prices may cause a dip in the near term, but i doubt that any long term investor will regret buying this stock.

By way of full disclosure, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE: RCL) is my largest single posiion.

In 2001, right after 9/11 this stock got down to around 7 or 8. I could only watch and wish, since DH had just lost his job and we were in survival mode.

I missed the "7 or 8" but I certainly don't regret buying sares for $14 now!

I love Royal Carribean cruises, and am way overdue for another one.


In that case you'll want to check out the company's shareholder discount: http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/irol/10/103045/ShareholderBenefitLetter.pdf -- the deal officially ends in May, but the company has renewed it annually for several years now.

And if you and your DH would like to get away, you're welcome to come along on this one: http://www.celebritycruises.com/search/vacationItinerary.do;jsessionid=0000cyzO6sHCYgUP8iQoVmS_hvO:1028etmk3?packageCode=IN14H005&backPageName=Itinerary+Search+Results

Fool on!

Norm.
Print the post Back To Top