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RE: "That's just my 2 cents."

Your 2 cents are in the mail. ;)

The real question is whether you plan to make investment decisions base upon what sounds like a logical deduction in the absences of any direct evidence or even specialized knowledge of the subject. Coca cola? Sound's like the answer is Yes. Admittedly Foolish, but also very foolish IMHO (please ignore my definition of "IMHO" on the MLNM board!). And, no, I don't think much of Peter Lynch's book.

Yes I have specific examples. No, I'm not going to tell you (or I would have to kill you). Perhaps you could call up the IR department of your favorite big pharma, but I doubt you'd get anywhere.

Just think about it for a moment. To do what incylong has proposed, the company in question will need large quantities of the drug and an approved production process, perhaps repeated toxicology if there are any changes in the former (end of story for any protein-based drug), historical patient samples (sorry, don't exist, so end of story for any non-lethal indication), all the necessary records (10% will disappear each year), the memories of the scientists/clinicians involved (if not dead or rapidly becoming senile, now working for a competitor), and very possibly repeated clinical trials. Difficult, expensive, and until they do it for each drug, scientifically unproven. Which would you rather spend money on: a known looser, or something fresh that has a 10% chance of success?

Of course, in the future, patient genotyping studies will be performed during the clinical trials.

Note: I'm not talking about something very recent like Rezulin (see: http://www.rezulin-facts.com/ ). But in that case the question becomes whether there is a single gene polymorphism that can be assayed with 100% reliability predict the observed very rare lethal side effect. I bet the answer is no. [As I've mentioned before, the whole patient genotyping question is much more complex than the article you read in Newsweek let on.] Since they are suing them, I doubt many patient samples will be available. Besides, Pfizer/Warner Lambert probably wants to get shut of the whole Rezulin PR mess as quickly as possible.

As always, JMHO, and I may be full of it,
Fushi
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