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I've posted about this before: and at other places around the same time frame. Long story short, since 1968, when the 3 month Treasury yield has exceeded the Ten year treasury yield, on average, for a calendar, month, a recession has followed 6-16 months later.

This had happened six times (starting in December 1968), and there had been 6 recessions, prior to the post linked to above. That post noted that phenomenon had happened for a seventh time, beginning in August 2006. As we all know, the Great Recession began on December, 2007. Seven for seven.

Well, guess what happened in the month of June?

Yup, 3 month yield exceeded ten year.

That makes an 8th time.

If I had to bet, I'd put money on a recession starting sometime between December, 2019, and October, 2020.

Take that information and apply it as you wish.

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