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Your Real Motivation?

When I received your e-mail, I had every intention of answering, but not posting. Then I discovered that you had posted exactly the same message, also addressed to me, on this board. So I looked up your profile. It seems strange to me that you registered recently, but gave no name, and that your only postings on TMF have been to mention this publication, using my post as your platform. In actuality, what you posted has nothing to do with the "AMSC and ORNL" post. Furthermore, You posted exactly the same hype on the Yahoo AMSC board. I decided not to bite and respond until other members of this board, including Joe (HandofFate) did take your post seriously, some even requesting you post the "slam". I am pretty sure that is exactly what you wanted. But on the outside chance that you are sincere, I will address what was said in the publication you are trying to get everyone to buy (in order to read the article). But first, a little factual background is in order.

Sound Familiar?

On the Yahoo board you said, "I am not a short and am long on this stock. Please find the magazine and comment….I would like to know who is full of it, [this publication] or AMSC. I think the discussion will be interesting." In answer to a question regarding the publication you replied, "It is new and currently in its 5th issue." The Yahoo board has been plagued by spammers, those who are into "Pump and Dump or Short and Distort" http://www.dimgroup.com/articles/05.html , posters who have actually been kicked off of other boards, those who have been exposed for pretending to have scientific background they don't, and proponents of other superconducting companies who are spreading negative hype on AMSC in an effort to jack up their own stock. The knowledgeable members of the board who hold AMSC stock because they did the necessary DD and believe in the company aren't easily taken in. Here are some of their comments, with the most pertinent points in bold:

From Yahoo

Msg: 2142 by: pgmuller (26/M/Irvine, CA) 6/1/00 1:27 am
"I don't want to be knee-jerk, but...since this is a brand new magazine it has little credibility and frankly I would be incredibly surprised if for some reason this little rinky-dink magazine has uncovered the fatal flaw in AMSC technology. AMSC is being covered by several analysts and has sold its' products to customers. So, AMSC would have had to fool its' customers, the analysts, and the scientists at MIT and
Oak Ridge only to be discovered by [this magazine] in its fifth issue. Whatever..."


Msg: 2144 by: kidcoyote_98 6/1/00 8:30 am
"My first reaction is that it doesn't make sense. "nutso distributed power techniques", I suppose refers to D-SMES. But these are not distributed power, they're distributed units along power grid. While that may seem like a small distinction, it is not…. I don't see why GE would sign exclusive, with quotas to retain exclusive, if these were not good solutions. GE is world's largest provider of equipment to utilities. AMSC is expanding plant to reach (15) units per month by next summer. At full capacity, this would translate into about $150 million for SMES/D-SMES revenues. ST Microelectronics is leading semiconductor company in Europe, and their utility, Edison, purchased two units to use for STM's plant in Italy, with the sales strategy of winning STM's business by providing reliable power.
Sounds like [this magazine] is trying to drum up sales for its magazine. Did they even address HTS?"


Msg: 2145 by: htsfuture 6/1/00 12:29 pm
"…did you notice that the author of the article is also the entertainment editor? maybe he should stick to the things he knows best."


The Unquoted Quote

And now, to let the readers of this board judge for themselves, this is the excerpt from the article that for some odd reason you didn't quote (maybe because then they wouldn't bother to try to find the quoted publication):

There are also some off-the-chart-nutso distributed power techniques. Our favorite is superconductors. There are two parts to this dream. First, resistance-free cable will distribute power at a fraction of the cost (lost electricity) of current wires. Second, superconducting magnets will store electricity out in the grid for delivery when demand surges. Most superconducting materials - cables and magnets -work at extremely low temperatures (below -265F), so they require a "cryogenic system" (fancy refrigerator) to keep them cool. There is hope of superconducting breakthroughs at room temperatures, though they won't be coming along anytime time soon. Unless we enter a new Ice Age, super-conductor generation will remain hilariously expensive in the near future: millions of dollars per kilowatt-hour. The companies producing superconductors include American Super Conductor (AMSC) and Intermagnetics General (IMG). So far, they're only selling super-conductor wires with a few practical uses in medical diagnostic and physics research equipment. The next market will be for portable substations to help overcrowded and overtaxed parts of the grid, like The Bronx in August. The big advantage of superconductor companies is that every few months some-body writes a hype story on them and the stocks go up, and then down.

Cited Credentials

Since you used my name to start this, I have a few questions and comments for you. What credentials do the management of this so called "scientific" publication possess? Are you aware that this superconducting technology is important enough to have won the Nobel Prize for Physics four times? And that one of those winners is part of the American Superconductor team? From American Superconductor's web site, Twenty-five of the firm's 242 employees hold Ph.D.s in materials science, physics,metallurgy or engineering. Senior management has well over 100 years of industry-related and marketing experience.
Are you seriously suggesting that the Nobel prize was awarded for some "some off-the-chart-nutso distributed power techniques"?

All in Perspective

Do you really believe that some off-the-wall editor has more credibility than George Gilder who, though admittedly controversial, does have longevity and quite a few followers who pay handsomely ($295 for a subscription to the Huber-Mills Digital Power Report) to read his opinions? In an invitational letter regarding the upcoming Powercosm Conference, Gilder said that the next wave of technology (following "telecosm") will be powered by superconductors, and he has tagged AMSC's technology as cutting edge.

The Gilder Group had access to the reports and technological discoveries of hundreds or probably thousands of companies in the power sector, but they chose to feature AMSC in the first Power Report last September. And, as has already been discussed in my posts and those of other members of this board, Gilder has announced that AMSC will again be featured in the San Diego Powercosm conference in June. That conference has been sold out for months. Yurek, a founder and President of American Superconductor, is a featured speaker on Thursday, June 15 under the heading "Distribution: Real and virtual wires".

Governmental Publication

If there is no hope, as the article says, of HTS breakthrough in the near future and the cost is prohibitive, why did the government publish a 15-page report in January on "High-Temperature Superconducting Electric Power Products: Modernizing the Existing Electricity Infrastructure"? http://www.eren.doe.gov/superconductivity/pdfs/supercon_products.pdf From this report, The timing is right for superconducting solutions to emerging business problems. Power generation and transmission equipment is aging and must be replaced. Environmental considerations are increasing. Utilities are changing the way they evaluate capital investments. Deregulation is intensifying competition. Superconducting power products will help the industry meet these challenges by reducing operating costs, enhancing flexibility and reliability and maximizing the capability of our existing infrastructure. This ultimately could be reflected in lower electricity rates for customers. Most of American Superconductor's strategic partners are mentioned, with Pirelli Cables and Rockwell Automation featured prominently. The Detroit Edison Project is explained in detail, complete with diagrams, as a prototype of this new technology. Can you give credence to the opinion of an entertainment editor who claims to know more about superconductivity than the experts in the field whose research was compiled into this report by the Office of Power Delivery for the U.S. Department of Energy?

You asked me to post a response. This is it. If you are sincere, you will learn from this reply. If you are not, your ploy did not work, as I purposely did not name your source. This board prides itself on sharing news and research, maintaining dignity and not falling prey to hypsters, spammers, daytraders and posters with ulterior motives. If you post within those guidelines, I'm sure you will be welcomed here.

Judy



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Excellent job exposing a spammer. In the future, I would recommend simply witing (1) registered May, 2000 and has 2 posts, (2) posts negative comments on Yahoo. At least for me, that is all I need to read to ignore the post.
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Great Post Judy.

I am glad you took the time to answer the question. I am currently doing my DD on AMSC and learned a lot from your post. I had asked for more detail on the content of the article, just to learn what might be of value to any investor seriously looking at AMSC.

Thanks to your post and other information I have since read, I agree that AMSC looks to have a bright future, and I plan on picking some up shortly.

Good Luck.

Paul
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This is one of the things I love about TMF message boards. If you try to put spam here, whether blatantly or stealthily, you end up dead meat.

-Pup
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