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So I was browsing for biotechs and came across Principia.

On first glance, they have a "BTK franchise" - pretty much one drug they own, but with later stage trials for auto-immune disease, and a second BTK drug for MS that they have a mid-teens royalty on. Plus maybe one or two more early stage things in the hopper.

They have this nice little image on their website which is a tree with all the BTK applicable diseases, pretty much alluding that their drug could expand to multiple autoimmune disease.

To me, this was either:
1) going to have to really work and be really safe
2) a trap.

I'll be honest that my first thought was, hmmm, maybe this is a better mousetrap than Imbruvica. So I look into it more.

At $800m market cap, its in that gray zone. Either I'm early to the party, or I'm missing something and it hasnt gone to zero yet... but still, let's look more.

-4 drugs in the pipeline, 3 different foci, and under 1b cap. yellow flag.
-small N in trials, thusfar all under 50 patients. It *might* be safe. It *might* have 5% bad side effects we're not seeing. No stage 4/5 ADRs, so bonus there. green-ish yellow flag.
-competition. Gotta be some competition, right? Imbruvica has been around for awhile, so maybe others have latched onto the BTK bandwagon.

So let's look at their filing at who they say competition is....well, they have competition. or rather, they *had* competition.

Biogen - still trialing for MS
AbbVie - imbruvica, oncology
Boehringer Ingelheim – withdrawn for lupus
BMS- they say they have one in P2 and P1, but cant find anything active in except that they terminated in Sjogrens
CELG performed poorly and withdrew
Eli Lilly – stopped trials for RA
Merck – evobrutinib for MS
Roche- fenebrutinib for RA, SLE, chronic urticaria (only on for the last one)
GILD- looks like they canceled their program
NVS- chronic urticaria
Taiho- RA
Takeda- no longer on their list

So. Either, out of the hundreds of billions of dollars of brain power between all of the above competitors, PRNB has stumbled onto gold or is holding onto a terd.

I point this out because it was easy to get excited early on. They have a drug, that in small trials, looks like it might work. These are the dangers with small trials. This is why I get nervous with a non-focused pipeline.

I hit pause on PRNB. They have upcoming trial read outs in 2H19. If they're positive, PRNB might make a nice add-on for a larger fish. If they're negative, its going close to zero. For those of you that like seminal events, this is it.


ps, I swear the post with a biotech spreadsheet is coming, I just got sidetracked with this one!
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Did you end up buying it or now?
I've love to see your spreadsheet.
I agree with you, it's a high risk, but now the price is much better:)
Also, just checked AskFinny bull case/bear case, and it appears it's heavily shorted. So at some point will rebound I think.
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I was reviewing PRNB over the weekend...

It's more than doubled. :(

also with better data than before:
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