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RhythmMan: My thinking is that I should be able to safely withdraw more than ~4% from 48 to 62, then throttle back when the other sources of income kick in. Has anyone got a spreadsheet that will allow me to evaluate such scenarios? I wouldn't mind working a LITTLE longer than necesary to be on the safe side, say, 2-3 weeks max. :^)

Having adapted one of the safe retirement calculators to test some other withdrawal patterns, I can say this sounds like a pretty intimidating challenge. Maybe if I were already into ER and bored... nah -- ain't gonna happen! Besides, there's an easier solution.

Treat this as two unrelated problems and solve each using one of the safe rate calculators.

The first problem to solve is the long term income, which needs to be your annual expenses minus the other income you are expecting. I'd expect this needs to be very safe, so the 4% would be the maximum withdrawal rate, if it were me.

The second problem to solve is the short term income, which is your shortfall from age 48 to 62. Even if you want to be really safe, the withdrawal rate for a short term is quite a bit higher than for a longer term. An 8% rate is 100% safe for a 10 year term, under my allocation mix, and 60% safe for 20 years.

So you're starting at a higher withdrawal rate -- and you can perhaps factor in some additional acceptable risk because if you do deplete this account when you're 59, you can tighten the old belt and live on $60k instead of $80k for 2-3 years. If that's an acceptable alternative, then even 10% of this short term nest egg might work -- that's 85% safe for 10 years (but only 31% for 20 years).

If it were me, I'd probably look at the necessary portfolio as something like the following.

You say you want $80k annually, and will get $20k of that from other sources starting at age 62, so:

Long term requirement of $60k requires 60k/4% or $1.5 million.

Short term requirement of $20k requires at least 20k/8% or $250,000, depending on your risk tolerance and ability to live on just $60k for a few years if needed.

Total $1.75 million.

Dory36
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