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No. of Recommendations: 2

Don't expect an immediate complete response from me after pointing to such a lengthy tome (not to be redundant, but it deserved it).

FYI, I'm cautious but not nearly as much as implied by the portfolio you've described, which would seem to be nearly 90% cash. I'm not sure where your (a)-(f) principles fit in when you appear to have so little currently invested right now.

Personally, when the market feels a bit frothy to me, I like the idea of having some money in counter-market things that could be easily liquidated if/when a correction actually happens. But since I've been expecting that correction for about the last 20% gain of the S&P, I've not only missed out on a lot of upside, but I've had some of those contrarian investments go real sour as well. It's been a nice (albeit somewhat painful) lesson about calculated risks with well-defined downside (which unfortunately I didn't adequately employ).

OTOH, we've all got to do what we're comfortable with, and we all have different manners and levels of risk tolerance. I need to remind myself to listen to the advice that I've given others: don't confuse the quality of a decision with the outcome that results. Given the uncertainty/randomness of the world, it might have been pure chance that something turned out good/bad, so a decision should not be second-guessed purely with the hindsight of the actual results. (My most recent example was talking with a friend yesterday who's been renting the past 12 years and consternating over buying a house, especially during the past few years after the housing bubble burst -- but owning a home may not be the right thing for him to do, given that he still can't see beyond a couple of years into his future.)

as always, i am full of carp

... back to the deadlines at work ...
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