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http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/07/rasmussen-poll-ro...

Mitt Romney has the support of 49 percent of voters nationwide, compared to 47 percent for President Obama, according to a Rasmussen poll based entirely on interviews conducted after the first presidential debate Wednesday.

Two percent of those surveyed prefer some other candidate and 2 percent are undecided, according to the first daily presidential tracking poll for Sunday.


Since there was such interest in polls by the liberals on the board these past 2 weeks, thought you would want this one also. Hope you enjoy your weekend!

Ready.......set............spin.
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In addition to the points I have raised previously about Rasmussen, i.e.,:
* empirical house effect about 2 points to Republicans;
* calling only landlines which systematically under samples a demographic that leans Democrat; and
* using only robocalling, which has a low response rate and preferentially samples the enthusiatic.

It turns out there is another interesting aspect of Rasmussen in the wake of the recent flap about oversampling and that is that Rasmussen weights according to party affiliation and is highly unusual in doing so. Changing party identification is one of the data points one would hope to find from polling, so weighting by it is likely to distort all of the data.
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* empirical house effect about 2 points to Republicans;

Interesting that you want to downplay these results.......I am surprised that with all the polling data you repeatedly posted.....not you choose to ignore this one.

There have been several studies on polling bias vs ultimate outcome of presidential election and as I recall, the bias is usually in favor of Democrats.

So you charge of a "house effect" is indeed surprising since you don't complain about the majority of polls having a Democratic bias??

But perhaps you missed the more important issue in that Rasmussen had Obama up before........ie it is the trend in Romney's favor in this first fully post debate poll. This trend will likely be similar in other polls......though the absolute percentages may differ.

Just curious......what exactly is Obama's plan for jobs in the next 4 years since his last are WAY below any prior recession (maybe even the depression?)?
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it is the trend in Romney's favor

Mr Duma,

I thought you were a TA guy.

Don't they have a saying that goes something like...

"one day does not a trend make"

Any chance, in your expert opinion, that this just might be applicable with polls as well?

Just saying,

B
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B:

Ever skeptical on any non-liberal I see.

It is a trend as there is a graph if you go to Rasmussen's site.

This is the first entirely post debate poll but there were prior partially post debate polls showing Romney's improved position.

Why are you so sad?

BTW, what exactly is Obama's plan for more jobs again???

Why has his last 4 years been so lackluster being the worst recovery in jobs after any prior recession?

Also, what is Obama's deficit reduction plan going forward (exclusive of cuts already enacted by Republicans).
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Why are you so sad?

In a word...you.

A mind is a terrible thing to waste. :<(

B
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I don't complain about any form of house effect, Dem or Rep. It is an empirical measure of where a firm lies, on the average, relative to the average. Hence, the term "house effect" to remove it from the sense of bias, which someone might think is intentional. I don't comment on it except when interpreting individual polls, which mostly I don't cite since averages are more reliable and informative. It comes up here a lot because you guys cite individual polls. If you were citing polls that were from firms with dem house effects, and there are just as many of those and with rep house effects ... by definition! ... then I would point that out, but we aren't likely to run into that, are we.

Yes, there has been some post-debate swing to Romney. We have yet to see whether there will be a post-jobs report swing, whether the post-debate swing is a bounce that will fade or if it is lasting, or what the effect of the remaining debates will be, because I am pretty sure the next two are unlikely to be like the one that has passed.
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