Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
No. of Recommendations: 0
In October last year, as the Dow Industrials were banging out a record high, the NASDAQ Composite Index was well off its peak, resulting in the sell-off that took the S&P 500 down some -20%. If you look right now, both the Dow Industrials and the NASDAQ Composite are approaching record highs as Wall Street hypes the Uber IPO, but the "tell" here would be that the Russell 2000 is well off its high. This was the situation during the October 2007 Bull Market peak, and I STRONGLY suspect it will again prove to be True here. So, it's SELL, SELL, SELL as a Bear Market is right around the corner!!!

This methodology of Market Timing is detailed in the Joe Granville book from the 1980's, still available on Amazon and worth its weight in Gold. I can tell you it's worked for me every since I first caught the knack of it on 12/4/1987, both at market bottoms and tops. For example, I called the low close of the 1990's at 2365 in December 1990. Unlike most Market Timing methodologies, which tend to be trend-following schemes, the Granville methodology FORECASTS trends.

Last I heard, Joe Granville is still alive, though now ancient, and still publishes his Stock Market Letter for his many subscribers. Of course Mr. Granville is the subject matter expert on his methodology, but as a dedicated market student myself, I suggest it says SELL, SELL, SELL.

Another book I have found useful is the Robert Prechter Elliott Wave book, as long as one doesn't try to shoe-horn the market into it. If it's easy and obvious, it works GREAT. And that, too, would suggest Bear Market, as all the 3 up-waves of a Bull Market seems to be complete with the Dow Industrials last October. I do know Mr. Prechter was forecast turbulence BEFORE it occurred subsequently. Mr. Prechter also still publishes his Market Letter, I suggest one take a look at it.
Print the post  

Announcements

What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.