No. of Recommendations: 15
I just went to Shiller's web site and noticed that he has a data series in Excel for S&P500 earnings from 1871-2001, see link:

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data.xls

I'll compare the P/E ratio for each year from 1871-2001 with the maximum 30-year safe withdrawal rate a retiree could have taken in the following year. For example, that means I'll take the 1968 P/E ratio for the S&P500 and compare it to a retirement starting on Jan 1, 1969.

As some of our more mathematically astute poster have pointed out, this comparison won't show any period where a 4% withdrawal failed, but it will show periods where you could have withdrawal far more than 4% if you choose to use P/E as your crystal ball.

Very bold retirees will have the mathematical basis for using higher withdrawal rates once the study is published. <grin>

I'll try to post the results on the REHP web site by June 1st.

intercst
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