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Same here. Of course at 11 bonds, I probably opted for a larger concentration of my portfolio than you did. (I didn't think they were a very big risk, despite the social implications.)

Joel,

I never make big bets. It just isn’t in my nature to do so. The downside is reduced returns when things turn out favorably. The upside is that downsides are always tolerable.

The present problem of course is finding something of comparable quality to replace them with. I could just buy some of the same bonds. They were trading at a slight discount (~104.75 I think) yesterday. But I'm thinking that I don't want to buy ultra-long bonds upside-down when the risk of rising interest rates is non-trivial.

Long-dated bonds are problematic in any inter-rate environment except a knowable top. Then the proper strategy is to go massively long with every penny you can get hold of. That’s not where we now are. So long-dated bonds should only be bought if their discounts justify their risks and will bear up well under the ravages of inflation. Do a bond-scan and then recall what was available even as recently as last winter. Quite a diffeernce, right? But that isn’t to say there’s nothing that couldn’t be looked at elsewhere in the yield-curve or credit-spectrum. If you poke around, you’ll find names.

Wishing he were retired so he'd have more time to devote to this stuff... :-)

Retirement does create free time. But good investing doesn’t require a lot of it. It merely requires a plan and a method (which do require time to create). Once they are in place, the daily investing-tasks can be done in mere minutes, and the rest of the day is one’s own.

Charlie
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