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No. of Recommendations: 3
https://rationalwalk.com/the-scientific-consensus/

See how a real scientist teaches scientific method
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No. of Recommendations: 5
See how a real scientist teaches scientific method


“it is scientific to say what is more likely and what is not more likely, than to be proving all the time what is possible or what is impossible.”
[From your Link]

“Compare it (the guess) directly with observation. If it disagrees with experiment, it’s wrong
[From your Link]

Example:
?Wearing Masks
Not Wearing Masks

South Dakota: no masks
Population 884,659 
Covid 19 deaths 1360
Total confirmed cases Covid 19, 107,180

San Francisco: masks required by law
Population 874,961
Covid 19 deaths 293
Total confirmed cases Covid 19, 30,562

BTW as an added consideration: the entire population of San Francisco lives in an area 1/100 the size of the area in which the population of South Dakota lives.
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No. of Recommendations: 4
T-B"“Compare it (the guess) directly with observation. If it disagrees with experiment, it’s wrong”
[From your Link]

Example:
?Wearing Masks
Not Wearing Masks

South Dakota: no masks
Population 884,659
Covid 19 deaths 1360
Total confirmed cases Covid 19, 107,180

San Francisco: masks required by law
Population 874,961
Covid 19 deaths 293
Total confirmed cases Covid 19, 30,562"

---

Actually, that is a bogus comparison. For several reasons

1) the health care in SF is probably 10x more effective with QUICK easy access to hospitals compared to most of South Dakota with very limited rural capability, no easy access to life saving COVID treatments like anti-body infusion, etc.

2) You haven't shown what the percentage of people wearing masks in either location is.

3) You haven't used the age distribution, nor the racial makeup. We already know that certain racial groups (Native Americans, Blacks, Hispanics, etc). I doubt there's a lot of elderly actually in SF...they can't afford it there.

4) You haven't looked at the ability of people in those states to have things like food delivered rather than having to go to the super markets..... it's probably a lot safer in your SF apartment with food delivery and grocery delivery. You don't have to venture outside, and of course, most of CA has been under 'stay at home' orders for the past half year. Just about every restaurant shut down.

5) Nor have you looked at the 'family composition' in SD. It's made up also of major Indian Nations that typically have multi-family dwellings with 3 to 10 people living in a house. I doubt there are too many 'multi-generational' homes in SF. Heck, they can't afford the rent.

- - -

It's about the same comparison of saying lots more people die in snow and ice accidents in South Dakota compared to San Francisco with the same population. Therefore, drivings in SD are 10x worse drivers!


t.
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No. of Recommendations: 8
Statistics can be monkeyed with in so many ways.

Take the claim that police shootings are a result of racism based on statistical evidence. To prove this total population of the races is put in the denominator to provide evidence that blacks are shot by police in a far disparate percentage than whites.

This is easily debunked by changing the denominator from total population to a more accurate determinate of contacts with police (# of arrests) by race. This more insightful analysis reveals that the difference in questionable shooting by police is miniscule (roughly 1 more black shot than white per million arrests). There is no evidence that this extra 1 per million is due to racism in policing and more likely due to black criminals commit a much higher incidence of violent crimes and are more likely to resist police.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Of course a lot of black people are shot (in the back) when they are not doing anything wrong, and a white kid who actually killed two people is given a pat on the back and becomes a local hero.
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No. of Recommendations: 4
"Of course a lot of black people are shot (in the back) when they are not doing anything "

Of course. That's probably why under Trump, the Republicans doubled the black support and the black vote.
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""Of course a lot of black people are shot (in the back) when they are not doing anything ""

A perp can surely point the gun at the cop while running away....and there are now cop-cams to show it.

If they aren't doing anything, they shouldn't be running away with a gun in their hand, right?


t.
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No. of Recommendations: 3
Actually, that is a bogus comparison. For several reasons


I guess you missed the most important factor (in this case) in the spread of infectious disease:
Distance

Infection transmissibility in the case of viral infection is dependent on three factors:
Viral Burden
Time of contact
Distance

South Dakota has the same population as San Francisco living in an area of 77,184 mi² compared to San Francisco with 874,961 people living in 46.87 mi²
The spread of communicable disease has always been more rampant in congested cities than rural country-side; this has been consistently observed going all the way back to the Black Plague in Europe.
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No. of Recommendations: 4
It's made up also of major Indian Nations that typically have multi-family dwellings with 3 to 10 people living in a house.

South Dakota
White: 84%
American Indian: 9%
Persons living per household: 2.43

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/SD
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No. of Recommendations: 2
"South Dakota has the same population as San Francisco living in an area of 77,184 mi² compared to San Francisco with 874,961 people living in 46.87 mi²"


And one third of South Dakota residents live in just four cities, and the majority live in the top 10 cities -

In addition, many of the rural folks - are on the Native American reservations that typically have multi-generational homes -

SO again, you're trying to compare apples and monkeys....

try getting your groceries delivered in most of South Dakota. Really. You think Uber-Eats serves most of South Dakota? Really?

there aren't that many jobs in SD that can be done on-line compared to SF, right? Where are all the high tech workers centered? Not in Sturgis, SD...... so folks have to get to work, mingle with co-workers to get things done.

again, this isn't year 800 and the Black Plague. It's 2021.



t.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
there aren't that many jobs in SD that can be done on-line compared to SF, right? Where are all the high tech workers centered? Not in Sturgis, SD...... so folks have to get to work, mingle with co-workers to get things done.

Maybe doing things like hosting the annual Sturgis rally wasn't such a bright idea...
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No. of Recommendations: 0
A perp can surely point the gun at the cop while running away....and there are now cop-cams to show it.

What about the "perps" that did not have a gun? Or any weapon at all?

In a related topic, a player for the Seattle Seahawks was arrested for beating his girlfriend over the weekend and released on bail. There has been a lot of discussion on Twitter today as to lack of coverage / outrage on this like there was when Ray Rice or Kareem Hunt were likewise arrested. I have no idea how it will play out, but it will be interesting to see if reactions are the same.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
DS:"Maybe doing things like hosting the annual Sturgis rally wasn't such a bright idea... "


about the same as the half million marching in BLM events around the country, in Foreman protest rallies around the country....

you weren't noting those events, were you?

Also, most of those Sturgis visitors were from anywhere but SD.


t.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
one third of South Dakota residents live in just four cities, and the majority live in the top 10 cities -

Which only supports the point that transmissibility of infectious disease is less likely with two-thirds of its population spread over an area 1700 times that of San Francisco. Two thirds of the population of South Dakota lives in and area of 77,184 mi², while All the population of San Francisco lives in an area of 46.87 mi².
The largest city in South Dakota, Sioux Falls, has a population density of 3,141 people per square mile. The population density of San Francisco is 18,790.74 people per square mile. San Francisco has the highest population density in all the United States after New York City.
None of the cities in South Dakota are any where near the population density of San Francisco. Earlier you tried to present a pictures of South Dakota as mostly American Indian Families that live in large extended families in one house. Turns out that is not even close to the reality. 86% of South Dakotans are white non hispanic and only 9% of South Dakotans are American Indians. Only 46% of San Franciscans are white non hispanics. I point this out, and you repeat this non-reality assertion saying, “many of the rural folks - are on the Native American reservations that typically have multi-generational homes” even though you have been presented evidence, facts that are contrary to your assertion (beliefs), you continue to repeat something to support your point which is not true.
No…. The American Indian population is only 9%
And, no, the number of persons living per household in South Dakota is 2.43

The fact is, you’re not interested in the scientific method that was posted here by the OP. You believe a hypothesis and make up the facts to secure your belief rather than objectively look at the evidence.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
"And, no, the number of persons living per household in South Dakota is 2.43"

again, useless but irrelevant stat.

Now, how many households are single person? How many are multi-generational?

You haven't a clue from your combined example.

Take the state of CA..... if we look at the 'wealth per capita', I'm sure it's more than CA.

If we look at SF and figure out the 'wealth per capita' compared to, say Rapid City, SD..... I'm sure there would be a giant difference. Not many billionaires or billion dollar companies HQ'ed in SD.

Nor, you have yet to explain how you are going to get groceries delivered to your door in SD, or Uber Eats to the farms there.

Nor have you explained how many jobs,percent wise, can be done remotely in SD vs SF. Which means SD folks have to 'go to work'. vs SF folks hiding in their tiny apartments 24/7 with mandatory 'stay at home' orders.

t


t.
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