Skip to main content
Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
No. of Recommendations: 14
Separate the strategy from the person.

There's a NASDAQ index that tracks emerging cloud stocks. Run 10,000 12-stock equal-weighted
portfolios picked at random from the 51 stocks in the index for 12/31/2018 to 2/28/2019. Median
and average results are 31% return. Twenty percent of the portfolios returned over 35%. Worst
result was 14%. Best was 48%. Investing equal weight in *all* 51 stocks in the index returned 31%.

On that board the strategy appears to have been adopted around the beginning of 2017, but the
strategy has been around much longer than that -- for more than a decade. A form of the index
above has been tracked since August 2013. If you had invested equal amounts in all 20 or so stocks
in the index in August 2013, and added new stocks as they were added to the index, your return from
inception is 34% annualized as of 2/28/2019.

With these kinds of results, if you attach a story that purports to explain cause and effect then
264 recs would not be surprising. The results seem inevitable because people see the outcome that
actually occurred rather than any of the infinite outcomes that could have occurred.

It's suggested on that board that these stocks are relatively safe. And in fact that may turn out to
be the actual outcome going forward. There are heavy smokers who have lived into their 90s.


<no position in emerging cloud stocks>
Print the post  


What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.