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shiller's data is no good and we have talked about why on this board before. better to use the CRSP database.

this is in my opinion "groping for grunions" and you can get any answer you want depending on what you think earnings will be in the aggregate the next few years and what discount rate you want to use....i am not an investor in the aggregate but if you beleive that equities in aggregate have negative numbers in front of them 10 years out then you are counting on a level of outperformance by AAA's over equity that would be more extreme than at any time in history (11600 BP over 15 years, 116%)- you would be betting on an extreme outlier to occur.

good luck.

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