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According to Apple's forecast, in the first quarter in 2018 the company can increase revenue by 7-10%. Models iPhone 8 and iPhone X were expected by consumers. We can assume that not only owners of iPhone 7 and 6 will acquire a newer model, but also owners of earlier versions of the smartphone, who postponed the purchase for several years.
It is also worth noting that sales of iPhones bring Apple about 60% of annual revenue, that's why successful indicators of this segment are the basis of the company's financial performance.
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No. of Recommendations: 5
It's going to be an interesting earnings release as beyond the iPhone there are some other interesting developments that need to be tracked including ...

* The iPhone - How has Apple's continued push into even more premium phone pricing has worked out? Are unit sales & revenue both great? In which case the iPhone X is a home run. Do unit sales & revenue diverge - i.e. there are fewer buyers, but those buyers are willing to pay more? That would signal moderate success for the iPhone X experiment. Are unit sales OK & revenue is in-line? Then the iPhone X may not have worked out as Apple hoped, or Apple has successfully established two-tiers (some folks moved up, the remainder bought 'better value' iPhones.) Given the rumor mill it should be interesting. If the iPhone X hasn't worked out quite as Apple planned, then we might see the X discontinued (it was a one year limited offer) & iPhone 9s that are developments of the X, but at 'regular' iPhone premium pricing (that'd almost be my guess.) Otherwise we might get an iPhone Pro (as John Gruber was proposing back before the X) & regular iPhones that are X-like but slightly compromised in comparison.

* The iPad - Last quarter looked good (within limits). Apple appeared to successfully establish a two-tier strategy - the Air & the Pros. In some respects this quarter is as critical for the iPad as it is for the iPhone, as if the iPad continues to grow it could guide iPhone development (normal & Pros.) If the iPad returns to declining, that could well throw Apples nascent two-tier strategy into question. And as the iPad is Apple's declared 'vision of the future' computing platform this is pretty important.

* Services - frankly I'd expect continued growth here - Apple Music appears to be a strong #2 in the market. So any low-non growth would be a pretty big surprise.

* Macs - I'm not expecting much detail, but any indications that the 'Pro' iMacs are doing well would be nice. The pro market isn't a big part, but it's pretty vocal & there are a surprisingly large number of 'I switched to Windows, it wasn't bad & performs better' articles. As a shareholder I'd prefer this to be snuffed out. There's also some interest around the Macbook Air with rumors that there'll just be a Macbook or two moving forward - totally logical. Any news on this would be interesting - and also whether Apple will try to get the Macbook to that entry Air price (or not.)

* The rest - Any detail would help, but I'm not expecting much.

There's probably more, but those are the potentially interesting angles that spring to mind.
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The iMac Pro was released in December, and it’s spectacularly expensive. While it’s truly an awesome beast, I don’t expect it to contribute much to Apple’s bottom line this for this report.

As for the iPhone X and rumors, one thing that’s unclear to me is whether any success with the 8’s can explain or even offset the so-far-rumored disappointment with the X. I suspect the X isn’t as unexpectedly-poorly-selling as the rumors say, whether or not it’s a huge hit. Somewhere in the middle, maybe.

-awlabrador
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As for the iPhone X and rumors, one thing that’s unclear to me is whether any success with the 8’s can explain or even offset the so-far-rumored disappointment with the X. I suspect the X isn’t as unexpectedly-poorly-selling as the rumors say, whether or not it’s a huge hit. Somewhere in the middle, maybe.


Well, I don't know about rumors, I tend to stay away from them. However, I bought an iPhone X. I do not normally say this about an Apple product, but it's over-priced. The face recognition is okay, but I think I preferred the thumbprint. The one thing it has and the main reason I bought is is for the larger screen but still in a size similar to the 6.

I've personally found the face recognition to be a PITA. With the thumbprint, I could pick the phone up without looking at it, and handle everything via voice. The face recognition is not as accurate and frequently tells me I failed - which means I then have to type in my unlock code, defeating the purpose of the facial recognition. Also, if you are in a dark room, it does not recognize you. And if you turn your head (and I have it set so that I do not have to look at it).

All in all, the thumbprint was MUCH easier. The Facial recognition just really isn't ready for prime time.

Kathleen
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if you are in a dark room, it does not recognize you.

Not True. My 10 recognizes me all the time in rooms as dark as a movie theater, and walking down a dark hallway (no lights at all). My wife had problems until she reset the face scanning.

All in all, the thumbprint was MUCH easier

Again, not even close to true. Especially with apps that require secondary proof of owner (Banks, password programs, Brokerages, etc.). I can lift the iPhone X, blink once to unlock, and if the Brokerage program was running when it closed down, keep looking and it logs me right in.

With facial recognition you don't have to find the button, which saves time. And it works 99% plus of the time for me. I will never go back.
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All in all, the thumbprint was MUCH easier.

Again, not even close to true.

All I think this says is that for a group of people, fingerprint sensors work better (depending on how the device is used) & for others facial recognition is the preferred solution. All of which is fine.

The iPhone X is opinionated - perhaps a little too much IMO. Apple could have placed a fingerprint sensor on the back of the phone - this is a solution that Android phones with facial recognition have done e.g. Samsung's finest or even the OnePlus 5T. Granted Android facial recognition isn't as comprehensive as FaceID (which has a lot of additional hardware in support) but these days it's not as far off as one would expect (given the lack of additional hardware.) However the advantage that including TouchID for the X in addition to FaceID is that 1) people wouldn't need to choose right now & not before purchase; 2) it would enable Apple to collect telemetry about use of both sensors & whether that changes over time & 3) it's possible that people use both, say FaceID normally, but TouchID in the pocket with Apple Pay. It's not as if there is much of a profit constraint on a $1000 phone.

This is not the first time that Apple have felt the need to be *overly* opinionated - to potentially negative consequences. Take the 'innovative' Mac Pro that's subsequently viewed as a failure (over time.) Apple could have built what 'Pros' were requesting (perhaps a more compact yet still easily upgrade-able cheese-grater Mac), however the released Mac Pro innovated itself into a dead end (upgrade-wise & thermally.) It's one thing to be very opinionated when the trend is clear (floppy disk use is dropping fast so let's get rid of it in favor of a USB drive) it's another when you are trying to 'guide' development. Hedging your bets has value too.
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Well, I don't know about rumors, I tend to stay away from them.

For the LTBH portion of my investment strategy, I agree, and I ignore rumors.

However, for options trading, those rumors can have a big effect, relatively speaking, and rumors of the iPhone X being cut have apparently knocked $13 off AAPL. Whether that's good or bad depends on one's specific positions or intended positions.

In the Steve Jobs movie, Joanna Hoffman -- played spectacularly by Kate Winslet -- told Steve Jobs (Michael Fassbender) that the original iMac was projected internally to sell 1 million units in the first 90 days, followed by 20k a month thereafter. I assume that the first 1 million units was weighted more heavily during the first month or so, rather than uniformly distributed over those first 90 days. (I also assume the movie echoed the actual projections correctly, but I don't have those at hand.)

These iMac numbers were considered a triumph. It should go without saying that iPhone X sales expectations are going to be different, but still, in comparison with the projected decline in iMac sales after 90 days, it's hard for me to get worked up over a 10-30% cut in orders for the iPhone X after a month, particularly for a radically new design (relative to the slower evolution of 6/6S/7/8).

All that said, however, the market seems more worked up about it than I am, so I have to face it with respect to short-term options (not so much with my LTBH position).

-awlabrador
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I went for an 8+ rather than wait on the X, and glad I did, fingerprint has always worked well for me, and I don't always want to pink my iPhone up to do a simple thing.. Siri is seemingly better than ever, battery life is great.. The X camera has some new trinkets that might be fun, but not worth the wait or expense.. I don't see the need for an upgrade for a long, long time..
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Not True. My 10 recognizes me all the time in rooms as dark as a movie theater, and walking down a dark hallway (no lights at all). My wife had problems until she reset the face scanning.


Please accept my apologies. I did not mean to offend by telling my experience, which of course, could be no match for YOUR experience.

Kathleen
Never before realizing that a personal experience would be called a lie.
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I went for an 8+ rather than wait on the X, and glad I did, fingerprint has always worked well for me, and I don't always want to pink my iPhone up to do a simple thing.. Siri is seemingly better than ever, battery life is great.. The X camera has some new trinkets that might be fun, but not worth the wait or expense.. I don't see the need for an upgrade for a long, long time..


I came very close to getting an 8+, but I really like the size of the X. I don't like a huge phone, although I really liked everything else.

Besides, I might've given home or a heart attack if I came home with anything less than the "latest greatest".

Kathleen
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Please accept my apologies. I did not mean to offend by telling my experience

Right back at you. However your posting "Also, if you are in a dark room, it does not recognize you." was not a statement of experience, but rather a statement of fact. I was reacting to that, not the experience. I do apologize.
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I fell for the + size along the way, it fits my Carhartt shirt pocket, lets me read most things without having to use my reader glasses, and I like the larger battery as well... I link to my powerBeats for music or podcasts on daily walks, or the gym...

DW is smaller, has trouble with fingerprints, flunked the TSA GOES testing after several tries, just no fingerprints, nearly. So she may be a customer for the X... At the moment, she tired of the passcode so turned it off... So a facial recognition might be better for her...

So we'll see what comes along, but for now we're happy with the 8 & 8+.

weco
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However your posting "Also, if you are in a dark room, it does not recognize you." was not a statement of experience, but rather a statement of fact.


So, I'm guessing you completely overlooked this statement, "I've personally found the face recognition to be a PITA. "

You posted this: Not True. My 10 recognizes me all the time in rooms as dark as a movie theater, and walking down a dark hallway (no lights at all). My wife had problems until she reset the face scanning.

And this: Again, not even close to true. Especially with apps that require secondary proof of owner (Banks, password programs, Brokerages, etc.). I can lift the iPhone X, blink once to unlock, and if the Brokerage program was running when it closed down, keep looking and it logs me right in.

Rather than qualifying to express there may be a difference between how YOU use the iPhone and how I use the iPhone, you made it a statement of fact. I prefaced it as an opinion.


Also, there may be large differences between YOUR idea of "dark" and MY idea of "dark" (and I personally think that to be a true statement), and there may be differences between your method of using the iPhone and my method of using the iPhone (again, I personally think that to be a true statement).

One thing you posted which tells me that is EXACTLY the situation is that we use our phones quite differently is that you specifically posted, "I can lift the iPhone X, blink once to unlock, and if the Brokerage program was running when it closed down, keep looking and it logs me right in." That was one of my points. I have mine set that I do not have to look at it, but it does not always work. I posted, "With the thumbprint, I could pick the phone up without looking at it, and handle everything via voice." If I have to actually look at it, it is less useful to me. This may not be an issue for you.

Please do not tell me I am wrong when you have not properly read what I have posted.

Kathleen
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I fell for the + size along the way, it fits my Carhartt shirt pocket, lets me read most things without having to use my reader glasses, and I like the larger battery as well... I link to my powerBeats for music or podcasts on daily walks, or the gym...

DW is smaller, has trouble with fingerprints, flunked the TSA GOES testing after several tries, just no fingerprints, nearly. So she may be a customer for the X... At the moment, she tired of the passcode so turned it off... So a facial recognition might be better for her...


We got my daughter the 8+ for Christmas, and she loves it, but she also has no fingerprint issues like your wife.

Kathleen
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We got my daughter the 8+ for Christmas, and she loves it, but she also has no fingerprint issues like your wife.

Interesting, the interviewing agent tried several things to make the required number of points, but in the end, made a note in her file, so dar it hasn't mattered, other than annoying in trying to use her iPhone. There is a percentage with minimal ridging causing this it seems...
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