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So at $25 or so we've once again come around to Apollo trading at a pleasing FRE yield. In my opinion it's trading at too low a multiple of FRE given the growth and stability. Add the potential incentive income and balance sheet for free.

I agree with this.


Not exactly apples to apples comparison because of the implied future growth rate of management fees may be different now versus a couple of years ago, but here's a quick comparison.

Off the top of my head, I don't recall the outlook and circumstances regarding management fee growth in 2016. However, I think APO is reasonably well positioned to continue management fee growth from today. Organic growth in what they already have, such as Athene. Also, some significant new initiatives, like Athene Europe. I am optimistic about FRE growth in at least the near-medium term.

to the $1.85 that we made over the last cycle

I don't have a good read on the appropriate over-the-cycle, yearly number for incentive fees. Bigger funds, not as many bargains.

What do you think of the $2 number?

GnV
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