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So the IPCC team will probably use reality—the actual warming of the world over the past few decades—to constrain the CMIP projections.

The discrepancy between estimates of climate sensitivity based on historical records versus models was apparent in the last assessment report, the AR5, and the accompanying generation of climate models, CMIP5. This caused the IPCC to expand the likely range of sensitivities on the lower end and to not give a central value estimate.

The CMIP6 models just made the situation worse.

DB2
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