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I havn't read Non-Linear Pricing, thanks for the tip - most of my non-linear experience was in an engineering/physics environment.

As another Berkshire B owner, I'm not too sure that even a cluster of super-cat events would be such a bad thing if reasonable premiums were able to be calculated (big if i know) even after a substantial lag. These sort of events highlight reinsurer credit-risk and have the potential to pull a lot of capital out of the markets.

That and there is quite a lot of fixed-demand in cat (rather than super-cat maybe) insurance - which if anything is likely to go up (interestingly Jack Byrne of GEICO fame is out of retirement at WTM - poss. worth a look if you follow insurers - and trading on insurers desire to get out of "ugly" businesses).

peter xyz
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