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Some people would attribute this to the freer flow of information. Others would call it insider trading. jrr7, i gather your comment is in regard to the efficiency demonstrated by the equity market to anticipate economic weakness in the past 50 years. i would say that as a businessman, my experience is that we generally have a very hard time forecasting business more than 4-6 months in the future, and for most other businesses i suspect the same. although manufacturer new orders (series 8,27) are a part of the leading index, if you look at fixed capital investment made by business (CB series 20, 69), it tends to be more of a lagging indicator. certainly inventories are. so i have a hard time buying into asymmetric information (insider knowledge) as a primary factor in the ability of markets to anticipate future price declines or economic weakness.i lean toward the effect of more transparency, the more transparent, the more a market can anticipate future conditions.tr
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