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Somewhere way down the road you may be correct but anytime in the next decade or two I do think it is a new era in the sense that the US simply can't afford high interest rates due to the huge debt payments they have to make.

From a Fed web site - Since 1977, the Federal Reserve has operated under a mandate from Congress to "promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long term interest rates" — what is now commonly referred to as the Fed's "dual mandate."

It is not in the Fed's mandate to keep the deficit down by maintaining low interest rates. They cannot do so if inflation rises. Their main focus is to prevent inflation, and they will do so even if it increases the deficit.

Now maybe some external factors will come along and nothing the US does can control it but I think the FED especially wants to maintain interest rates and inflation on the low side and will do everything possible to keep it relatively low.

Of course they do. But as far as the Fed is concerned, the federal deficit and national debt are external factors. The Fed can't control them.

The 70s/80s had a number of factors that contributed to the high inflation, everything from going off the gold standard, price controls, etc. Obviously with the state of politics similar mistakes could be made again but I think it falls into the very low probability side of things.

The main factor was an inflationary explosion of commodity (mostly oil) prices. Yes, that's an external factor. There always will be external factors from the Fed's view point. The Fed is only concerned with inflation and the level of employment/unemployment. Everything else is external.

I do think the FED would like to get the rates up to 3% so they can drop them in the event the economy needs stimulating.

Of course the fed would like to get rates up to 3%, and more if necessary, to keep inflation in check, and to have some stimulative ammo if the economy slows down. That is precisely the Fed's traditional role. We are only in a certain phase of the classic Fed policy shifts. The recession of 2008-2009 was the deepest in the history of the Fed, took the longest to recover from, and thus kept interest rates lowest for the longest time. That phase is over. Fundamentally nothing has changed.

Elan
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