Sorry…this one always stuck with me, as looking at random 3 month periods can show very different outcomes to suit any perspective.
Saul wrote on June 8th:
"Now I have 0% in Elastic, and 14% in Mongo. How has it worked out? Let’s see.
Going back exactly three months to March 7th, Elastic was at $84.94. Friday it closed at $81.40, so in three months Elastic is down 4%.
Going back exactly three months to March 7th, Mongo was at $99.46. Friday it closed at $169.97, so in the same three months Mongo is up 71%."
The idea being that the market was apparently validating the MDB over ESTC argument.
I own both.
But I would note MDB has now done just about nothing for over 4 months, and is at $143 today…quite a bit down from the $169 price on June 8th.
ESTC has of course had a nice run, and is about $100, up from $81 back on June 8th.
What does this all mean? Nothing really.
To me though, MDB got a bit too hot, and ESTC was too beat-down, and as they have similar hyper-growth rates and similar revenue run-rates, it seems they both reset to where they perhaps should be at this moment in time, with just about the same market cap of $7.5b and roughly same P/S now.
They both had same ER date of June 6th, so next ER likely not until early Sept, so a month away at least.
I have a heavy ESTC position right now, and added more to MDB yesterday, and if it falls further I will likely add some more. I look forward to watching their race up from here!
Dreamer