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Failure rates are backward looking metrics. Wouter's statements were forward looking. --- not sure how your statements address his assertions.

No one has suggested that investing large sums of money in emerging markets is prudent for the average investor. If they did, they were most certainly shot down.

I agree that luck may have been involved with a positive outcome in YONG. However, I don't think that luck was involved to the extent that you suggest. For me this investment boiled down to "Is YONG a complete and total fraud or not" The valuations were / are so low that a small investment seemed to make sense for me because of 1) the Global Gains capabilities and 2) the abilities of others on the boards.

A perceived risk will never actualize by definition. However, you will not know that it was perceived until after the fact. The perceived risk of YONG being a total and complete fraud has been shown to be false (buyout offer from management). The market is slow and not efficient so it still pices at a discout to the offer. I will grant that there may be customs and practices that differ from ours that may not have come to light yet regarding accounting standards etc. However, this would be far from a complete and total fraud. The risk of a management buyout at a low valuation became real and we can now say that it was not perceived it was an actual risk. We do not know yet about the risk of delisting.

Just my 2 cents.

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