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Everyone has stocks that they just wish they'd got in and bought at a reasonable price. Recently there have been moans from people about missing Broadcom, Qualcom and others. And Inkwell has bene gloating over his rat-inspired purchase of UNPH recently at 137. But most of us are having severe stickershock at contemplating buying these at current prices. On the other hand other stocks (like Cisco) are ones that you happily accumlate in dribs and drabs as they drop down a little.

So do we have a feel for the stocks that are too pricey now and the stocks which we might feel happy with investing in now and the ones that we will never be unhappy buying no matter what the price? And what about the ones that have recently dropped and put themselves back into affordability?

Here's my first stab at a list in each category. I'm sure we can put some more in the various buckets and maybe move things about. I'm certainly not doing this in a really scientific way (like the Rule makers/breakers) just looking at charts and going on feel for the products and company size.

Too expensive for now

Buyable now but not for long

Always worth buying

Back down to being worth buying?

Dirty Dingus
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DD... sorry, but I have to disagree with one of your "too expensive" stocks. That's QCOM. Basically, this stock has gone up so far so fast that people everywhere think this thing is now way overvalued. I beg to differ... I think this still has lots of room to grow. The market still doesn't get the importance of the royalty stream QCOM will be collecting, nor does it understand the importance CDMA will play in the wireless future.

Why do I think it's undervalued? Compare it's market cap to that of Nokia or Ericsson. It's relatively tiny, yet QCOM is poised to become one of the most important companies of the next century (think the next MSFT). And they consistently blow away all earnings estimates.

I missed the boat on this one, waiting in vain for the ascent to stop long enough for me to hop on. Finally gave up waiting a couple of weeks ago and bought at $116. The more I think about it, the more I like this purchase. QCOM is now #2 in my portfolio (second to UNPH) and I'm looking to increase my position. In a few years we'll look back at QCOM's current price and kick ourselves for not buying more.

Another question: why do you say NOK is always worth buying, yet QCOM is too expensive? I think you're underestimating the importance of QCOM's patents. Don't forget, every time Nokia sells a phone, Qualcomm collects royalties... what a business model!

Feel free to shoot me down,
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very worthwhile effort-sorry if you took my post as gloating-I went into the detail i did because my original post wasnt clear enough apparently judging by the reply.

Id submit these additions:

too expensive for now:

buyable now but not for long:

Always worth buying:

Back down to being worth buying:
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Back down to being worth buying?

I'd classify QWST and GBLX (for RBB purposes) as "watch closely, the story may be changing." Right now, they are in an acquisition struggle for FRO and USW. While FRO would fit with either, USW complicates the longer term picture. Either could be okay for a medium-term trade, but I don't think that's the style of the Bandwagon.

I suppose if you buy both of them, you'll be happy with whichever one doesn't get USW. And it is possible that the one that does get USW will turn USW around, though this is a big area of uncertainty right now.

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Dingus...good seem to have your pulse on it....rat finally bought RIMM today...been waiting at a cheap limit for weeks and the chart said.."UH OH!" a rat pulled trigger this am at 18 3/8..will add...maybe????....cheapRat
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Looks like I struck a nerve, so here goes on some replies.

1) NOK vs QCOM
I think that these are very different markets.

Firstly NOK is the premier handset manufacturer. And is doing lots of good things wrt reduction of product cycles, support of major standards, extracting $$$ on accessories and all the things that mean that its a great consumer products company. It also happens to be spending a bunch of money and doing a lot as a carrier equipment supplier as well and, while its not the top supplier it has a good rep there too. I.e. if NOK isn't a classic TMF rulemaker its damn close and thus worth picking up on any momentary market dips becuase its trending steadily upward.

QCOM is a company that has bet the farm on a mobile telephony standard - W-CDMA. if W-CDMA becomes the sole global standard QCOM will indeed rock. But if there remains a large number of non CDMA kit then QCOm may not rock as much. For example if GSM continues to dominate the "developing" world and the developing world sees no need for new and expensive WCDMA because what they want is simple narrowband voice then QCOM will not have quite the rosy future its expected to. Given the expected price differential betwene CDMA kit paying a royalty to QCOM and GSM kit which doesn't (and which has its R&D costs already paid for) I would expect a lot of people to just buy the cheap stuff from Ericcson and Nokia. If I'd had my crystal ball around I would have bought in march but IMO QCOMs current price probably has most or all of the good news already factored in. Hence I put it in the "oops missed category" but I'm quite happy to listen to other views Maybe we should have a separate debate about this one.

2) Inkwell - the UNPH "gloat"ing was kind of tongue in cheek. I like some of you other suggestions but would be curious as to your support of Citrix - I'd class this as a niche co myself but maybe I'm missing somehting. Also what are your thoughts on Network Appliences (NTAP)? I'd put this in the buy now category.

3) Rat - I assume the "chart saying Uhoh" means buy? the chart looks confused to my eyes and I don't really see the attraction of the company

4) QWST GBLX. Personally I'm just glad I didn't buy either a month ago. I'm putting them on the watch list but not the buy list until the whole FRO/USW stuff clears up.

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Don't forget, every time Nokia sells a phone, Qualcomm collects royalties... what a business model!

OK, samson19, I'll bite. What IP do QCOM collect royalties on when Nokia sells a GSM phone? I thought QCOM's IP portfolio was limited to one species of CDMA. Am I missing something?

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<<but would be curious as to your support of Citrix - I'd class this as a niche co myself
but maybe I'm missing somehting. Also what are your thoughts on Network Appliences (NTAP)?
I'd put this in the buy now category.>>

I think the ASP niche is expanding and takes advantage of a growth in thin client implementation. This and the other applications of Citrix' technology are a large enough niche for me. I think they dominate their niche and I like having Microsoft and IBM licensing my products. They have a growing market outside the US. They have consistent 30% net margins and steadily rising revenue figures. Analysts 5 year predictions of growth rates call for the company to exceed 40% beating the industry average by 12%. If its niche status excepts it from the list you are creating, sorry-I was just listing cos related however tenuously to the broadband field that I have been following

I know nothing from an investment standpoint of NTAP though I have seen it mentioned often on these boards
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One stock that have gotten my attention recently is Adaptive Broadband (ADAP). I posted this earlier and suggest that you check it out. They have broadband wireless technology that could really rock. Check out the recent price/volume action and you might agree that it is ready to pop. LT it may be suitable for those with a high-risk tolerance but the ST interest and business prospects are there. Check out the SI board for starters on this one...

Another "sideways" broadband play is Gemstar (GMST). (check out TMF board, it is excellent). They are expected to get favorable disposition of their patent disputes in the coming weeks.

I'm not trying to hype, just trying to share the wealth, but check them out if you have time and make your own decisions...

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Here's my $0.02:

Worth buying, undervalued:

My view of CTXS is that it's more than a niche player. Its market cap is roughly the same as BRCM and is larger than PMCS or NTAP. 5-year historic EPS growth rate of 209.1%, 5-year projected EPS growth rate of 40.7%, gross margins over 90% and net margins of over 25%. It is undervalued in that its year-forward P-E is 35.5. Measured against its growth, the YPEG is 0.87. Amazing investment – I'm just waiting for a dip so I can hop in. (Actually, it's pretty stupid that I haven't invested yet, in that the damn stock is so cheap already, but I can't resist waiting for a better deal. Could be my downfall, though.)

Similar story with NTAP. 5-year historic EPS growth rate of 100.2%, and 5-year projected growth rate of 42.7%. Year-forward P-E of 52.2 and YPEG is 1.23. Data storage is a no-brainer growth industry. This one has the potential to break away, IMO. (Still waiting for a dip before investing in this one, too.)

Worth buying, fairly valued:

Gotta agree with samson19 on this one - don't look backward at how high the stock has already climbed. I know it has grown a ton already but its forward P/E is 50, with a conservative (too low) long-term growth rate of 30%, giving it a YPEG of 1.67. Everything I've heard about this coming quarter indicates that QCOM is going to blow away current earnings, like it did last quarter. FWIW, this quarter's estimate is 0.55 and the whisper is 0.61. If you want to buy this stock, buy it before earnings are released, IMO. (Already invested in this one.)

Worth buying, overvalued:

Not worth buying:
ATHM (Ouch! I know I'm going to get killed for that one! Sorry! ;-) )

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You're correct. I'm just betting that CDMA becomes the global standard, that's all. I'm no technical expert, but from what I've read I think this is a reasonable gamble. The windfall will be enormous... we're seeing the market leaning more and more towards this belief every day... QCOM refuses to go down. I'm not thinking of this year or even next... I'm thinking 5 and 10 yrs down the road.

btw, I actually own a Nokia phone, and agree that currently they're much better (user friendly and in looks) then Qualcomm phones. I just don't think that the big money will be made in selling handsets. I think QCOM will reap gigantic rewards b/c it owns the best technology out there. Of course, I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again. I think I've got a winner here, though. I firmly believe this stock is not yet fairly valued at current levels.
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<<I actually own a Nokia phone, and agree that currently they're much better (user friendly and in looks) then Qualcomm phones.>>

Nokia's phones are better than Qualcomm's, but Qualcomm may be set to leapfrog Nokia due to the market for "smart phones," which is about to explode. Qualcomm is set to release the pDq, a hybrid between a cell phone and a handheld computer, within a couple of months. The pDq is based on 3Com's Palm OS. The company's also begun work on a microprocessor that'll combine the functions of their MSM chips and those of handheld PC CPUs. The smart phone which will run off of of this microprocessor will use Windows CE, so Qualcomm has both bases covered. Meanwhile, Nokia, Ericsson, and Motorola have rallied around a company called Symbian to develop the software for their smart phones. If I had to choose, I'd definitely bet on Qualcomm's Palm-based and Windows-based smart phones to be more successful than those running Symbian's software. This could allow Qualcomm to leapfrog Nokia in the digital handset space the same way Compaq leapfrogged IBM in the late 80's by developing the 386 ahead of them.

Also, Qualcomm will make most of their money off of chips and royalties. Currently, 90% of the world's CDMA chips are made by Qualcomm. While they expect some of that market share to erode, the company stil believes they can hold on to at least 65% of the market, if not more. If CDMA becomes the worldwide standard I expect it to be in a few years, that's 65-75% of all cell phones, smart phones, and base stations with Qualcomm's chips in them. And as for those companies that use other chips, they'll still have to pay Qualcomm royalties.

Furthermore, Qualcomm is talking to PC manufacturers to have CDMA chips installed in laptops to work as wireless modems. This idea is so logical I can't believe it's taken so long to come to fruition. Within a couple of years, Qualcomm will be moving to a 1.5 mbps downloading standard for their technology. Sure beats a 56K mode, doesn't it? And it shouldn't be too expensive either. Within a few years, all laptops will probably have CDMA wireless modem chips in them. We all know who'll make most of those chips, and who will collect royalties on all of those chips.

Qualcomm defnitely has unbelievable potential. It has the chance to be to the wireless communications industry what IBM should've been to the personal computing industry. Let's just hope that, unlike IBM, they don't screw it up.
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samson19 and stocksure,

Thanks for your opinions guys. I am afraid though that I cannot immediately agree with them, without a lot more research of my own. I know there has been a great deal of bullish sentiment on QCOM, stemming mainly from the Ericsson settlement, but I find myself wondering if there is not a lot of smoke and mirrors involved.

QCOM being a US company, and CDMA having been deployed more widely in US than anywhere else, I believe US investors naturally tend to overestimate QCOM's competitive position. I am still garnering facts about 3G mobile systems, but at present it seems to me that the prospects for QCOM are not quite so rosy as perhaps some analysts have suggested.

I hope to post a more useful assessment on this board soon, since I think 3G is of significant interest in relation to a number of stocks that we track here, including ARMHY.

Still turning the handle,

PS. I really like Eudora though.
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I still think of HSAC as a miniature ATHM that is 54% owned by Paul Allen, and also part-owned by Microsoft and Cisco. It's aiming to provide cable modem service to communities sized 10,000 to 100,000 that are off the radar of ATHM for now. With Paul Allen's substantial cable properties, High Speed Access has the connections to be successful.

As a mini-ATHM, HSAC still seems quite reasonably priced at 25. See the website at or come to the TMF HSAC board if you want to learn more.
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I can't describe how impressed I am with this board and it will take me weeks, if not months, to read up on all that you've done here! Following the rat & inkwell led me to this place of uphoria and I thank them. I bow to the other regulars that are obviously updating and scrumeraging around to seek the best the markets have to offer! I am still in my infancy of investing, but I am assertive and I love to do research but most important I am willing to learn from the best!

I posted this earlier as a regular post until I realized that there was this thread, so please excuse me for this one time double post. I have become interested lately in ATI Technologies(ATYT:NAS/ATY:TSE) a mid-cap stock with a low P/E etc. and this is definitly an undervalued stock. They are catching the eyes of the investor lately and with this there will be some decent up-play within the next 6-12months. If not interested, fine I just thought that I'd pass it on as I have seen posts regarding General Instruments.

ATI won the largest set-top design contract in North America with General Instruments based on the performance of our first-generation Set-TopWonder reference design.

ATYT comparison with SIII TDFX INTC,TDFX,ATYT,INTC&hdr2=5&hdr3=0&hdr1=SIII,TDFX,ATYT,INTC

(snips from their last Q3 Report)
During the quarter, ATI announced a number of design wins for its newest component, the award-winning RAGE 128. Following robust demand from Apple Computer, the Company was selected to power Gateway's new Essential consumer and E4200 corporate desktops, Hewlett Packard's Pavilion 8485 Home PCs, Acer's Power 8000 and 6100 corporate and Aspire 6100 consumer systems and
Sony'sVAIO Digital Studio desktop PCs.

With overall performance to match the best 3D chips on the market today and unmatched support for digital video and HDTV, the RAGE 128 has the best combination of features and performance among graphics accelerators. During the quarter ATI also reported that the RAGE family of components are used across the
entire range of desktop computers made by eMachines Inc.

In the latest market study from Mercury Research ATI vaulted into the number three position in mobile graphics. During the first quarter of calendar 1999 ATI more than doubled its 1998 market share in the laptop market, reaching 15 percent in this rapidly growing segment. Driving towards the number one spot, ATI reported a long list of contracts with Apple, Compaq, Dell, Fujistu and Gateway for notebooks. Illustrating success in multiple market segments, ATI also earned the highest market share of graphics and video cards sold through the U.S. distribution channels, ever reported.

During the quarter, ATI announced several new products. The RAGE 128 PRO AGP 4X unveiled the next generation of components that combines architectural enhancements with higher clock frequencies to achieve a 50 percent improvement in 3D performance.

Also announced was the Company's Set-Top Box II reference design, a platform from which consumer
electronics OEMs can develop low-cost, high performance set-top boxes. The Set-Top Wonder II is a complete design including RISC CPU, memory, graphics, modem, audio, I/O, drivers and sample applications. ATI won the largest set-top design contract in North America with General Instruments based on the performance of our first-generation Set-Top Wonder reference design.

TORONTO, June 14 /CNW-PRN/ - ATI Technologies Inc.

``The combination of Libit and ATI silicon will dramatically enhance the television experience provided by the next generation set-top boxes,' states Jacob Tanz, vice president of sales, Libit Signal Processing Corp. ``This demonstration with ATI on the Microsoft TV platform is the next step in the evolution of the Internet through the TV. Set-top Wonder II combined with our low-cost Cable Modem is the beginning of a new era of ``cable-ready' TV's and PC's with the ability to deliver fast-internet access, IP Telephony, and video conferencing. The overall industry and consumer
potential of a low-cost cable modems is immense.'

``The Set-top-Wonder(TM) II is a highly interactive reference design that requires uncompromising performance from the front-end components,' said Daniel Eiref, ATI's director of set-top box marketing. ``We searched the world for the very best cable modem technology to use in our Set-top-Wonder(TM) II reference design and we are partnering with Libit because of their leadership technology. ATI graphics & video chips, Libit cable modem, and Microsoft TV software each represent best-in-class products.'

The ATI Set-top-Wonder(TM) II provides a platform from which consumer electronics OEMs can develop low-cost, but high performance Microsoft TV-based set-top boxes. This reference design incorporates the Rage(TM) XL 3D and video graphics chip and Rage(TM) Theater video in/out companion chip from ATI, which together easily provide the world's most powerful set-top graphics subsystem. It is an ideal platform for OEMs designing a variety of consumer electronics devices including cable, satellite, and terrestrial set-top boxes, digital VCRs, and other devices requiring a high degree of interactivity or graphics/video performance.

I get the sense you have no time for analysts recommendations, but the majority of them posted
July 9, 1999 state `Strong Buys' with Goldman, Sachs & Co.reiterating Market Outperform. Others I have posted on the ATYT board:

Thank you again.

Yes, I know this is a long one, but I will try to limit it to two paragraphs on further posts!
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