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Harken back to the 1990's generation where Intel, Microsoft, Cisco, Oracle/Siebel, Qualcomm were leaders in the charge.

Fast forward to 2018. Are they still around? Yup. Have they continued to be good investments? ;-)

Cloud, AI, Autonomous vehicles, Smart Phones, Social Media, etc...and the games continue as always.

Amazing how well the old horsemen are doing - not to mention the emerging leaders since last this board was active: Salesforce.com, Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Nvidia, Google (or STAB stocks in China of Sina, Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu).

IMO, the discussion has not altered. Only time, and the effects of the 2000-2013 secular bear market shut down the discussion on this board. Here we are 5 years after the breakout of the new secular bull market and I am amazed at the quarterly reports of the old horsemen (Intel's report leading to a 17 year stock price high), not to mention the newer leaders.

Crickets...?

BB
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This is the most overvalued stock market in history. Stocks around the world began their crash today. Crickets? Just when this board starts to make a noise is when the market will get squashed again.
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This is the most overvalued stock market in history. Stocks around the world began their crash today. Crickets? Just when this board starts to make a noise is when the market will get squashed again.

I think it is fair to say there has been zero "noise" on this board which has remained dormant for a decade or more.

Your last post on this board was on March 16, 2008 entitled Warren Buffet Was Right where you said:

To think that somehow the current environment is going to pan out differently in the long run is the height of foolishness. This board should be kept at the Fool indefinitely to remind us to stick to basic investing principles.

AMZN on that date closed at $66.53 ($1408 this morning)
INTC on that date closed at $35.52 ($46 this morning)
MSFT on that date closed at $22.15 ($90 this morning)
GOOGL on that date closed at $210.15 ($1103 this morning)
NVDA on that date closed at $16.56 ($228 this morning)
ORCL on that date closed at $17.36 ($49 this morning)
QCOM on that date closed at $30.83 ($65 this morning)
CRM on that date closed at $13.88 ($108 this morning)
AAPL on that date closed at $16.23 ($159 this morning)
NFLX on that date closed at $4.71 ($263 this morning)
FB, of course was not public then, but it closed at $38.23 on 5/18/23 ($188 this morning)

Of course, throw in the dividends for those above that pay dividends to get the total return to see how right or wrong Warren Buffett was with regard to technology investing for the leaders.

BRKB on that date closed at $84.90 ($205.50 this morning)

BB (strong believer in Buffett as well and hold Berkshire as well as plenty of the technology stocks listed above sans ORCL - both in index funds as well as individual shares)

P.S. You are correct - this board should remain at the Fool to remind us to stick to basic investing principles.
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Edit for poor typing performance...

FB, of course was not public then, but it closed at $38.23 on 5/18/12 ($188 this morning)
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A lot of stocks look pretty good from 2008 crash.

From about March thru Oct 2000 I was still scratching my head trying to understand the valuations of CSCO, JNPR, and RBAK.

Cisco is doing quite well, as a company. It's stock has still never reached the peak from 2000 though. Juniper has lost their way a bit and settled into a $10b market cap after being about 10x that in 2000. Good ol' Redback Networks got sold to Ericsson for about their IPO price or so...hard to find historical stock charts for RBAK, but pretty sure they got up to about $20b and IPO was $1-2b so they also dropped 10-20x from their peak.

MSFT has only recently reclaimed their 2000 highs.

In hindsight we are all geniuses, but if I could do it over again, starting in mid-1999 (when I, unfortunately, first started having extra income to invest) I would:

Save money for 10 years, put it towards a house and take the rest and buy stocks (berkshire, aapl, amzn, nflx, googl...doesn't really matter which ones almost) in April 2009.

You literally could have just saved money for a decade.

Plan B with hindsight and a crystal ball would be:
Save money from 1999 until Oct 2001 then invest in anything and sell it all in 2007.
Wait 2 years, buy it all back.


Market timing, historical market conditions/crashes, and having cash on hand all do matter.
Unfortunately no one was really talking about that in 1999-2000.

-Dreamer
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In hindsight we are all geniuses, but if I could do it over again, starting in mid-1999 (when I, unfortunately, first started having extra income to invest) I would:

Save money for 10 years, put it towards a house and take the rest and buy stocks (berkshire, aapl, amzn, nflx, googl...doesn't really matter which ones almost) in April 2009.

You literally could have just saved money for a decade.

Plan B with hindsight and a crystal ball would be:
Save money from 1999 until Oct 2001 then invest in anything and sell it all in 2007.
Wait 2 years, buy it all back.


Market timing, historical market conditions/crashes, and having cash on hand all do matter.
Unfortunately no one was really talking about that in 1999-2000.

-Dreamer


There are plenty feelings of regret - or the usual "what if I only had done this" - made by investors in retrospect. This could be regrets from individual stock(s), the use of margin, diversity or lack of diversity in a portfolio, not buying something when the market was down and out, not selling at highs to rebalance, and on and on. The recency bias will - or should - last for the remainder of our lifetimes with regard to choices made.

Time in the market vs. timing the market certainly remains a path to success for a well diversified portfolio (domestic/international/fixed income) covering all industry sectors, growth, value, market cap, plus continued investment and reinvestment of dividends. The technology sector's fall of 80%+ from 2000-2002 took care of excess, as did the overall 54%+ drop in the 2007-2009. They also color recency bias. Having a portfolio with a core diversity will be able to weather the storm over the decades of investing we all engage in, but the lessons of the past help point this out - especially in the case of having too much of one's portfolio in any particular sector such as technology in the dot.com bust, or financials in the financial crisis.

To continue our quarterly look at some of the big names in technology...

LifeForceDancer made the recent claim on February 3rd, 2018: This is the most overvalued stock market in history. Stocks around the world began their crash today. Crickets? Just when this board starts to make a noise is when the market will get squashed again.

I replied:

Your last post on this board was on March 16, 2008 entitled Warren Buffet Was Right where you said:

"To think that somehow the current environment is going to pan out differently in the long run is the height of foolishness. This board should be kept at the Fool indefinitely to remind us to stick to basic investing principles."

AMZN on that date closed at $66.53 ($1408 3/5/18)
INTC on that date closed at $35.52 ($46 3/5/18)
MSFT on that date closed at $22.15 ($90 3/5/18)
GOOGL on that date closed at $210.15 ($1103 3/5/18)
NVDA on that date closed at $16.56 ($228 3/5/18)
ORCL on that date closed at $17.36 ($49 3/5/18)
QCOM on that date closed at $30.83 ($65 3/5/18)
CRM on that date closed at $13.88 ($108 3/5/18)
AAPL on that date closed at $16.23 ($159 3/5/18)
NFLX on that date closed at $4.71 ($263 3/5/18)
FB, of course was not public then, but it closed at $38.23 on 5/18/13 ($188 3/5/18)

Of course, throw in the dividends for those above that pay dividends to get the total return to see how right or wrong Warren Buffett was with regard to technology investing for the leaders.

BRKB on that date closed at $84.90 ($205.50 3/5/18)


LifeForceDancer may or may not have been correct that on February 3rd, our stock market was the most overvalued stock market in history. So we all keep an eye on it.

Most are more than well aware of the tremendous growth taking place in software companies within the Cloud, but I won't highlight those players, but stick to the diverse collection of the big, well known players that dominate (includes the top 5 technology stocks in the S&P 500 + Netflix that when combined, these 6 companies have more free cash flow than the combined FCF of the bottom 250 stocks in the S&P 500 - yet they trade for the same multiple of price to FCF).

Updated prices for the morning of June 1, 2018.

AMZN on that date closed at $66.53 on 3/16/08 ($1408 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $1637.14
INTC on that date closed at $35.52 on 3/16/08 ($46 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $55.90
MSFT on that date closed at $22.15 on 3/16/08 ($90 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $99.45
GOOGL on that date closed at $210.15 on 3/16/08 ($1103 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $1115.13
NVDA on that date closed at $16.56 on 3/16/08 ($228 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $254.09
ORCL on that date closed at $17.36 on 3/16/08 ($49 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $46.99
QCOM on that date closed at $30.83 on 3/16/08 ($65 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $58.23
CRM on that date closed at $13.88 on 3/16/08 ($108 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $130.18
AAPL on that date closed at $16.23 on 3/16/08 ($159 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $188.02
NFLX on that date closed at $4.71 on 3/16/08 ($263 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $353.70
FB closed at $38.23 on 5/18/23 on 3/16/08 ($188 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $192.63

BRKB on that date closed at $84.90 on 3/16/08 ($205.50 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $193.37
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To continue our quarterly look at some of the big names in technology...

LifeForceDancer made the claim on February 3rd, 2018: This is the most overvalued stock market in history. Stocks around the world began their crash today. Crickets? Just when this board starts to make a noise is when the market will get squashed again.

At the time, I replied:

Your previous post on this board was on March 16, 2008 entitled Warren Buffet Was Right where you said:

"To think that somehow the current environment is going to pan out differently in the long run is the height of foolishness. This board should be kept at the Fool indefinitely to remind us to stick to basic investing principles."


So, we keep the indefinitely up and running - or rather, alive - to see what happens.

A reminder of our look from June 1, 2018...

Updated prices for the morning of June 1, 2018...

AMZN on that date closed at $66.53 on 3/16/08 ($1408 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $1637.14
INTC on that date closed at $35.52 on 3/16/08 ($46 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $55.90
MSFT on that date closed at $22.15 on 3/16/08 ($90 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $99.45
GOOGL on that date closed at $210.15 on 3/16/08 ($1103 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $1115.13
NVDA on that date closed at $16.56 on 3/16/08 ($228 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $254.09
ORCL on that date closed at $17.36 on 3/16/08 ($49 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $46.99
QCOM on that date closed at $30.83 on 3/16/08 ($65 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $58.23
CRM on that date closed at $13.88 on 3/16/08 ($108 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $130.18
AAPL on that date closed at $16.23 on 3/16/08 ($159 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $188.02
NFLX on that date closed at $4.71 on 3/16/08 ($263 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $353.70
FB closed at $38.23 on 5/18/23 on 3/16/08 ($188 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $192.63

BRKB on that date closed at $84.90 on 3/16/08 ($205.50 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $193.37


Updated prices for the afternoon of March 21, 2019 to kick off spring.

Not too much change from last June, but here's the latest update for the start of spring '19....

AMZN on that date closed at $66.53 on 3/16/08 ($1408 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $1819.26
INTC on that date closed at $35.52 on 3/16/08 ($46 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $54.64*
MSFT on that date closed at $22.15 on 3/16/08 ($90 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $120.22*
GOOGL on that date closed at $210.15 on 3/16/08 ($1103 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $1236.13
NVDA on that date closed at $16.56 on 3/16/08 ($228 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $183.94*
ORCL on that date closed at $17.36 on 3/16/08 ($49 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $54.04*
QCOM on that date closed at $30.83 on 3/16/08 ($65 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $57.77*
CRM on that date closed at $13.88 on 3/16/08 ($108 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $166.95
AAPL on that date closed at $16.23 on 3/16/08 ($159 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $195.09*
NFLX on that date closed at $4.71 on 3/16/08 ($263 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $377.87
FB closed at $38.23 on 5/18/23 on 3/16/08 ($188 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $166.08

BRKB on that date closed at $84.90 on 3/16/08 ($205.50 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $204.43

*Added an asterisk to denote the companies paying dividends.
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