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No. of Recommendations: 0
Surely there must be some reasonableness to the valuation.

Maybe, maybe not, but it seems to me that the successes and failures have more to do with it being the right company and the right time than it has to do with the valuation. Pick a company with the right story ... not just perceived as right at the time, but actually right as things work out ... and the valuation thing is likely to take care of itself ... at least for a while. Pick a company with a good story at the right time and know when to get out, and it doesn't matter whether the story is true in the end.
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