Fools!Ok, if you've been investing in RS-based screens, you should have expected that once in a while you will get punched in the gut. LMS is the latest bruiser to come along and sock you. Accept it. Get over it.Yeah, it sucks. Trust me, it does. I hate it. Deal with it. Make your trades and wipe the slate clean or hold on until you are suppose to. If any of you would look at the daily RS-IBD data I put on my site last week you would have noticed that there were a significant number of +/-10% daily movements over it's 15.75 year history to 2000. There is a -30% daily return on there somewhere.YOU MUST ACCEPT IT OR YOU ARE LYING TO YOURSELF! IF YOU CAN'T TAKE IT GET OUT OF MI. IF YOU CAN QUIT YOUR B*TCHING! I admit to two days of a horrible loss, but it is only part of my portfolio, and, yes, it sucks. But in a few hours it will be over and that will be that. There will be days like QCOM in late December and early January this year and AOL and YHOO early last year again. There will be days like this again. They will always be here with us. Accept it. You know I'm right.Sux
Make your trades and wipe the slate clean or hold on until you are suppose to. Well said. It appears the newbies do not know what to expect and have to vent somewhere.This year has been tough in comparison to last year. But just waiting for Jack to show us the future possibilities.Jeff
Stocks like LMS test your understanding of fumdamental MI concepts. If you only understand with your head (ie you know how to drive a car but have never done it) then you will be pretty upset by LMS. If you really KNOW MI then LMS is not even a bump in the road.Jeff
Sux,The only post that was complaining was a cut and paste from the LMS board. The MI everybody are just wondering what happened. Which I believe is a legitimate question.Chrishttp://www.sff.net/people/ckanderson/
Not to mention that LMS is just ONE of the stocks. If you're buying a basket (Top 4 or 5) then of course you'll have losers but you'll have MORE winners. Just like I posted over on the LMS board in response to that guy whining - I started a PEG 4 in December. 3 of my stocks (HLIT,TTN, and CTS) are down 59.5%, 32.8%, and 27.0%, but am i whining? NO, because my overall portfolio is up 12.2% because IRF is up 167.4%.So follow the screens and don't just randomly pick stocks out of them (which appears to be what that guy on the LMS board did)dan.
Chris wroteSux,The only post that was complaining was a cut and paste from the LMS board. The MI everybody are just wondering what happened. Which I believe is a legitimate question.Chrishttp://www.sff.net/people/ckanderson/_______________________________A wire service report indicated that MArio Gabelli's group reduced its stake in this stock over the past several weeks. Evidently this has caused a reaction. There has been no substantive news from the company on the wire in the last two days other than that story. John
SuxLMS is no different then any other stock selection coming through MI. This one stock in a basket.. some go down and most go up. Sux is right on. If you think LMS hurts check out the historical quotes on Qcom between late dec and mid Jan.MI has made me more money than any other method. It has placed me in stocks that I never heard of including LMS.Losses are a part of life. But so are winners UggieK
LMS = Little Mechanical Slip. Nothing more.Gany
Which I believe is a legitimate question.ChrisIf you think I was refering to you then you've misinterpreted my little rant. My rant is targeted to all those folks reading the board, replying or not, that are cursing MI right now for LSM. I know they are. Why? Because I was yesterday.Then I reminded myself that this is a proven method and that on a daily basis +/- 3-sigma events do occur. You can see it in the data! This year many have had their will tested. I've had a very ugly year indeed. Relearned the rules of MI the hard way. Burned my Foolish soul in the hell that can be MI. Then you back away and realize that the tool inflicts pain and gives pleasure, and that others have suffered the same fate and there is comfort in that.Stick with it Fools! March on! Sux
AMEN!Thank you sux for keeping many of us in reality.William
...but am i whining? NO, because my overall portfolio is up 12.2% TESTIFY!!!!Sux
You know, I never ever would have heard of QCOM or Siebel Systems w/o my MI UG screen. I figure that if I can find 1 of those stocks using a MI strategy I might find another some day. That's why I buy what the sorts say, 'cus you never really know.cat
"Stick with it Fools! March on! "Can we still wear the funny hats? Do we have to stay in line?:)
So if you don't currently hold LMS and today was your rebalance day, would you buy LMS, or move down one slot and skip it?
..I apologize for adding another thought to this thread.....but talk about testing your MI mindset.... guess what company I have to buy today .... LMS!!!!!..I just ran Jamie's backtester using my blend but picking PEG13 (2-3), instead of PEG13 (1-2) ... same CAGR..... could pick the number three spot instead of the number one spot.... yikes........this will take awhile to decide... yet, will probably buy the screen... and add more LMS to my portfolio... or should it be ALSI???..who said mechanical investing is not emotional????..marjory...
So if you don't currently hold LMS and today was your rebalance day, would you buy LMS, or move down one slot and skip it?____________________________Since I'm a fool, I'd buy. I have no crystal ball -- that's why I use MI. This one's not really a hard decision. There are no reports of accounting irregularities, reduced earnings estimates, or the like that materially alter this stock's prospects.FWIWJohn
I'm in the same boat. I rebalance my RS26 today. I 99.9% sure I'm going to just follow the screen. I've been doing MI since April of last year and every single time I've deviated from the screens it has cost me money.The way I look at, even if LMS goes bankrupt my NEWP has more than made up for it.
nyua,So the screens tell you to buy LMS today.Do it. FTS.Maybe Mr. Gabelli had a good reason for dumping some of it, like he needed a new yacht, or house, or decided "Hey, I gotta great options play over here!"Doesn't matter.Looks to me like you're gonna get it at a discount,Oily
So if you don't currently hold LMS and today was your rebalance day, would you buy LMS, or move down one slot and skip it?I can't tell you yes or no on that and no one really should. It's a personal choice.I'll rarely second-guess the screens and buy something further down, but on occasion I'll skip out on something that look foul. LMS has had the hell pounded out of it--it might be a good LTBH here. I don't know and I can't tell you what to do in that regard.Sux
...who said mechanical investing is not emotional????..marjory...I never said it wasn't. You just have to restrain them when it comes time to do the deed. Once a month, once a year, whatever.
>AMEN!>Thank you sux for keeping many of us in reality.>William Ditto that William. I don't see what all the ruckus isabout. LMS is part of my SOS_KJ monthly, and todayis trading day. It was off to a big gain, but if Ihave to sell it today, I still will likely make 5%+on it for the month. I'm not going to bitch andmoan about the difference between 32% and 24% forthe month. Last month I lost money on NEWP, butthis month, I made it all back and then some. MI can be a rush, however....The sun rises and the sun sets.... Tommorrow is anotherday.Kevin
Catscanner says:>>Can we still wear the funny hats? Do we have to stay >>in line?I wear my funny hat frequently. I got a really coolgreen/gold/purple one at Mardi Gras this year. Ona good day in the market, I dance around the househappily. On a bad day, I cry in my beer. :)Fool on!
I'd happily buy it. If you don't, your not followingMI. Follow the screens!Brian Davis Writes:So if you don't currently hold LMS and today was your rebalance day, would you buy LMS, or move down one slot and skip it?
So if you don't currently hold LMS and today was your rebalance day, would you buy LMS, or move down one slot and skip it?I was going to tell about holding my nose and buying it. But I'm trading options today, not stocks. There are no options on LMS! I get to take a pass on this one.
And you know, I actually MADE money on the LMS trade anyhow!doug
Mechanical investing is hard, and there's plenty of emotions involved. Last month when I rebalanced RSOLAP, I penned http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=12828924where I said I was passing on the sucker. There used to be some concensus on doing this among the likes of rayvt,sparf, and elan as I recall (probably maligned one or more of these MIGiants). Nobody spoke up and agreed, and everybody who posted followed the screen (killer2000 and moe included i think).Now, for 30 days I've regularly kicked myself as LMS soared 50% above its buy point then, accompanied by high volume. Just follow the screen, I told myself each day, doublethinking results in confusion.So today was rebalance day, and I held my nose and bought LMS. Gabelli may get credit for the drop until today, but you may feel free to blame me for the inevitable further drops from here.And I still don't know what to do about these low floaters!Regards,Apalachi
The sun rises and the sun sets.... Tommorrow is anotherday.And that has been backtested for a very long time....I've read all the LMS tales of woe and would just like to point out that if you've held it for a month or so then you are about even.One other observation: How many people were disappointed to find that LMS had no options. Dodged a bullet there, didn't we.OxBeaux
1) I recall reading about a year ago about one of the Gardner brothers confronting Gabelli at a public meeting about the embarassing fact that none of his funds consistently outperforms the market, never mind the MI screens. So if all this brouhaha about LMS is because of him, I wouldn't worry about it.2) Less than a month ago, I let myself be scared into selling half my PMCS because of the suddenly negative forecasts about the semiconductor sector (remember that?). I sold at about 182. Yesterday, PMCS closed at 238, up 31% from my sale price. That's why I get for panicking.4) The people who dumped Emulex in this morning's hoax must be feeling very stupid by now.
The sun rises and the sun sets.... Tommorrow is another day.And that has been backtested for a very long time....I've read all the LMS tales of woe and would just like to point out that if you've held it for a month or so then you are about even.OxBeauxSuch tales of woe I am want to tell. Today was tradingday, and LMS was on the list. So I (drum roll.....)rebalanced an bought more LMS. Still, from last months buy point to this months buy point, LMS was up15%. Woe is me... :)Kevin
Before rebalancing my monthly RSO today I read the MI board and was shocked to read about LMS. Last I had looked it was way up. When I finally looked at the price I saw it was still 3.5% above my last month's purchase price (51% annualized - I know annualizing monthly gains is silly, but it helps me decide whether a monthly gain is large or small). So LMS still had a good month. And my RSO 1-4 monthly is up 15.6% for the month (thanks NEWP). I was annoyed at the thought of sellin LMS today when it had been so high, so I was relieved to find it still on today's RSO list. Following the screen, I kept it. Of course, if it drops a lot more ...Overall, as I rebalance, I am once again amazed at the performance of my MI port despite the "disasters" and can't thank you all enough.
MI and the LMS bit are a lot like learning other technical endeavors.As a pilot, if you're short of the runway the instinct is to pull up. The correct choice is to add power and not pull up. Pulling up makes you fall like a rock. Adding power looks scary, but gets you to the runway.As a skier on a steep slope or a climber on a steep rock, the instinct is to put your head and body close to the slope where it feels safer. The correct choice is to move your body out closer to the drop, which causes better friction with the surface, better edging, and better control. Moving inward gets you splatted.There are lots of other examples. Get used to the uncomfortable feeling. Fight the instinctive wrong response. After a while, you'll get good and the whole thing will become fun.-gelasmus
LMS is no different than QCOM, HLIT, NOK, or any otther MI stock that hiccuped. It's no fun watching it, but what can you do, other than wait it out and follow the screen. I'm at least fortunate in this case (so far) in that I rotated into LMS on the first Friday of this month so I'm still up around 15% from my buy point.Larry
So if you don't currently hold LMS and today was your rebalance day, would you buy LMS, or move down one slot and skip it?Does anybody know how to make a little graphic that means "dope slap"? I think we could use one.Baltassar
Last month when I rebalanced RSOLAP, I penned http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=12828924 where I said I was passing on the sucker. There used to be some concensus on doing this among the likes of rayvt,sparf, and elan as I recall (probably maligned one or more of these MIGiants).Maligned is right. I think I wrote once that if your planned purchase is more than 1% of the stock's daily volume, let's say, then you've got somehing to worry about. I don't think that was the case with LMS. In fact, I bought it on 7/7/00 and I'm (still) happy that I did.Elan
LMS hiccups now and then. Note 3/9, 7/28, and this week. As we all know, when a stock rises quickly, it tends to fall quickly also. I didn't see anything in the news that convinces me to sell LMS. When a big holder sells, the stock price falls. We could easily see low to mid 20s in the next couple weeks. Bought original position on 7/21 (PEG13, RS4Wk), added to position on 8/18 (RSO, PEGO and others), added to position mid-week and today (RSO, PEGO, PlowRS).I see this as a great buying opportunity. If it isn't, the screens will tell us to get out.Kathy
The fundamentals look good at LMS but I am deciding whether to bail out or hang in there. Not clear why it took off so quickly , momentum? I have a lot invested and regret it now. I think this stock is drifting down to single digits... Willy
The fundamentals look good at LMS but I am deciding whether to bail out or hang in there. Not clear why it took off so quickly , momentum? I have a lot invested and regret it now. I think this stock is drifting down to single digits... Willy So does anyone feel funny taking advice from a bunch of digits?Just wondering......
So does anyone feel funny taking advice from a bunch of digits?Depends which finger it is.>:-EOilyYes, that is a "1" I'm holding up
So does anyone feel funny taking advice from a bunch of digits?I thought it was the phone number where you could call to get more "good" stock tips. dcobranchi
..just a quick observation.....as some of you know...I have recently completed reading over 60,000 posts during the past two months.. and I have to tell you ... there is more discussion and wringing of the hands concerning LMS than there was when the market tanked!!!..jeeshhh... this is only one stock... let's move on!!!..regards....marjory.....as an aside.... I followed the screen and added more LMS... only regret, could have gotten it for less if it wasn't for my indecission...sigh...
Dear SuxTell it like it is. Diversification, and long terminvesting is the bases to good investment.I have been reading few of your articles and I thinkthat you might be on to something! I have also visitedyour site and it is not bad. I am testing few different approches and yours is one of them.Keep up the good work and continue to enlighten me.P.S.Whats the deal with this LMS. Nah, just joking.Thank You
So does anyone feel funny taking advice from a bunch of digits?I have taken advice, or at least gotten a lot of information, from someone who points out that it sux to be me and I've done very well. So you just never know. ;-)Mark
TMFElan wrote: "In fact, I bought it on 7/7/00 and I'm (still) happy that I did."A second on this thought here. I'm very pleased with the +13.6% in 7 weeks. We'll see where the future lies./ Anne
<<never ever would have heard of QCOM or Siebel Systems w/o my MI UG screen. I figure that if I can find 1 of those stocks using a MI strategy I might find another some day. >>You mean, perhaps, stocks like CMX, IMPH, PMCS, or XLNX? Up 13%, 22%, 22%, and 20%, respectively, since 8/7/00, when I bought them in my sister-in-law's account.Who is now convinced that her sister married the smartest guy around! ;-)Ray(I just hope she doesn't ask me what the names of these compayies are. Or what they do.) ;-)
FWIW- I just started a "paper" port of 5 screens, kind of a "for the heck of it" thing to try some ideas out, as my two screen annual port is kinda boring (gee, only 4 months more until I trade again). LMS showed up on two of the five screens, so I've got a double helping of it.I checked today: lost 12%, have lost 23% since purchase a week ago.Today my port as a whole was up .40%, beating the indices. Oh, and for the week, this port is up 1.3%.So, what was I supposed to be upset about? "Stuff" happens. We cope. That's what separates us from the people who, in the end, will be giving us their money.-synchronicity
I would like to address this hoopla over LMS. Let me begin by saying I just started MI in July. I began a PEG4 portfolio with $8000. Obviously, I don't have as much money on the table as other people, but it's still all of my "bucket C" money. One of the stocks I bought was IDTI. IDTI dove 32% in the 2 weeks after my buy. Needless to say I was concerned. But it is now 10% above my purchase price. The important thing I have learned is that you are not buying a stock but a SCREEN. At it's worst the group of 4 stocks I bought was down 8%. I decided to invest with MI for many reasons:I wanted to have a plan for my investmentsI wanted a plan with some backtested results to validate it's strategy.I wanted to be in control of my moneyI wanted to have some fun While MI allows me to do all these things, it does have one drawback: volatility. Along with volatility comes risk. While I am new to MI, I have learned quickly that you must trust your screen and your decision to invest in that screen. All of the screens have a GSD at least twice that of the S&P 500. Because we are trying to beat the market, we have to put up with some volitility. If you can't deal with that, then invest in index funds, there is no shame in that. But please don't complain when one stock in a screen (like LMS) drops 30%. It's part of the package. It ain't fun, but the strategy calls for taking some risks.
This year many have had their will tested. I've had a very ugly year indeed. Relearned the rules of MI the hard way. Burned my Foolish soul in the hell that can be MI.One minor correction, Sux: hell is for eternity. You've merely been through purgatory, where the soul is cleansed of its sins in preparation for eternal bliss in heaven. LMS just got us a plenary indulgence. :)-- Earble(Go ask a Catholic what I'm talking about...)
gelasmus said: Get used to the uncomfortable feeling. Fight the instinctive wrong response. *******************************************************This is very good advice. It is precisely that instinctive wrong response that keeps most people from making money trading. Or as a friend said once, "If it was easy, there wouldn't be any money in it."arezi
IF YOU CAN'T TAKE IT GET OUT OF MI. IF YOU CAN QUIT YOUR B*TCHING! I'm confused, who's bitching? There may some posts I haven't gotten to yet, but the only ones I've seen are asking out of curiosity "what's up with LMS?"I don't think there's anything wrong with asking if anyone knows why a stock went down 30% in 2 days, any more than there's nothing wrong with mentioning real estate for sale in Belize or commissions or Ken Fisher. It is obviously an item of interest to most of the people here. People have posted in the past when QCOM got some huge deal or some other major occurence happened in the life of a stock. There's nothing wrong with knowing something about a company whose stock we own (though I personally don't waste much time on it-- what does NEWP do, anyway?).I haven't seen anyone say they're going to panic or behave differently or get out of MI. We don't need to be pedantic to members of this board because some morons on other boards are whining!--Terry
Just like I posted over on the LMS board in response to that guy whining Why bother? Is it important to convince other people to invest like us? I'm happy if people don't want to do MI.--Terry
So does anyone feel funny taking advice from a bunch of digits?Hey! No ad numerum attacks!--Terry
>>So does anyone feel funny taking advice from a bunch of digits?Hey, if I let my digits do something as personal as pick my nose, why wouldn't I let them pick my stocks?
So does anyone feel funny taking advice from a bunch of digits?Hey! No ad numerum attacks!--Terry Does that make a debate between fundamental or technical analyst with the Mechanical Investing approachArgumentum ad numerum?
I have taken advice, or at least gotten a lot of information, from someone who points out that it sux to be me and I've done very well. So you just never know.True, true....
So if you don't currently hold LMS and today was your rebalance day, would you buy LMS, or move down one slot and skip it?Food for thought: In July I bought IDTI as it was making new highs. It immediately, like the next day or so, started dropping like a rock. It was down >30%, and I wasn't too happy. But, having taken my licks from past mistakes (http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=13198286), I held on.Today, IDTI is up 6% for me, and again making new highs! And I still have about 5 months to go, for a 6 month hold. In the next 5 months, who knows? As for LMS, I still have 5 months to go for it too.Crapshooter
(I just hope she doesn't ask me what the names of these compayies are. Or what they do.) ;-) Oh yeah! I didn't even know how to pronounce Qualcomm for 2 months, then, 2 more months to figure out what CDMA meant. Just sort 'em, buy 'em, sell 'em. just like a cakewalk.cat
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