Before Fed started easing for this COVID crisis, the Fed balance sheet showed $4.1 T in assets (Jan 1 2000) and the latest figure is $7.8 T. The federal balance sheet expanded by $3.7 T, in about 15 months and they are still pumping over $120 B a month.These are truly unprecedented sum of monies. When that money supply is stopped or even reduced, there are going to be after shocks. WE have seen some of that in SaaS stocks coming down 30%, 40%, 50% from Feb blow-off tops.Are we thinking REIT valuations are reasonable? They may not suffer much decline? Or any effects of tapering mitigated by inflation, i.e., inflation boosting real asset prices?
I agree with everything you have said Kingran. My only question is what to do about it. If the government is just printing money (and they clearly are at the moment) what is the proper course of action. It hardly seems logical to own dollars. It seems like their value has to be dropping. Owning Real Estate or other hard assets seems like a better choice, I don't know. Where will interest rates go. If they stay low, REITS look good in comparison. If rates start to rise significant, maybe not. But at least with REITS and high (or maybe better, medium) dividend stocks, there is the ability to increase dividends over time to compensate. It is not clear at all that being out of the market is better than being in with the fiscal environment we are in. Maybe owning a limited resource asset is the right way, Bitcoin anyone? As far as the SAAS stocks, yes they are down 30-50% in the last couple months but they are also up tremendously in the past year or more. The good ones are growing like crazy with a very interesting business model that allows for a great view of growth going forward. I own a bit of those as well. But where they go from here, who knows. So what am I doing. Trying to diversify. Dividend paying stocks, reopening economy stocks, SAAS stocks, and some preferreds and conservative (short term bonds) ETF's for ballast. As I have heard a very smart investor say in the past. It's about TIME IN the market, not TIMING the market that works best...Just my 2 cents worth (and that doesn't go as far as it used to!)Randy
The only REIT sector that I am trying figure out is the grocery anchored retail. Valuations look quite high on the surface. After taking into consideration - interest rates, the economy, taxes and investment costs - they still seem high, but not to the same degree. My skill is buying low, I seem to have the ability to buy near the bottoms. It is an emotional skill more than an intellectual skill. Falling share prices do not scare me, they excite me. After a good run in the stock market I often like to, in the following order:1) Deleverage - I already paid off my home mortgage. No remaining debt to payoff. 2) Reduce portfolio concentration, especially in industries with economic risks. I would like to sell at least one bank holding, most likely CIT to start. 3) Look at diversifying holdings. I would like to add a little more foreign equities, probably with the proceeds of #2 above.4) Move into defensive stocks - defensive sectors and companies with good balance sheets. 5) Think about buying bonds. I have thought about it and in today's environment it is not happening.6) Increase cash holdings which are presently pretty low at 3-4%. If my portfolio goes up another 20-30%, I might be 20-30% in cash. Depends on company fundamentals. That is the way I like to handle times when the market and my portfolio seem to be making unsustainable gains. VM
1) No debt, nothing to deleverage2) Never had concentration, No sector is more than 20%, and no name more than 6% (These are gains)3) Slightly over 40 holdings! My concern is how can I reduce without incurring significant taxes.4) Except for some SaaS names most are solid companies, with pretty good balance sheets5) Recently added some preferreds6) Over 25% cash
I listened to a Bloomberg interview with Sam Zell yesterday. Been a real estate guy for eons….and he said he’s gone to gold for the first time in his life….it made my ears perk up.The old gold I have is jewelry and not much of that to speak up and the only gold I ever bought for an investment was a miner Placer Dome a long time ago….I’m not a fan of gold but what do I know. I like shiny things though and making money……one of the problems with buying gold is storing it, or paying someone to store it and then I would have to trust them to not vanish with my gold.Lucky Dog
Lucky, You can buy GLD, & SLV they track Gold and Silver prices pretty well. If you are buying physical gold, for investment, then I would recommend you buy 1oz coins. There are jewelry shops that sell gold. I prefer them so that I can check the gold before buying. They pack the coins in air tight plastic bags. Most of my physical investment gold were purchased around $400 oz. I had silver and sold it, they need lots of space and maintaining the bars are a pain. Now I only buy GLD and SLV.
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