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No. of Recommendations: 14
Market is confusing right now, or I’m confused and I’m projecting it onto the market. Most likely always the case. Market doesn’t feel emotion, but we certainly do.

I have a lot of cash I still need to put to work, especially in my tax free account.

Three stocks I don’t own and would like to dabble are SKLZ, PINS, SNOW. All three are sitting at interesting lower levels. I hate owning too many names, already in about 18 stocks, but these three would be good additions.

PINS is just above support at 70. Had great earnings, really a great online market community and ad play. I need exposure to this.

SKLZ is a gaming platform and developer. Love that so many of their offerings are kids games. Get them young is a smart move. Lobe that they also teach kids how to develop their own games. On a valuation basis, seems like a bargain compared to most. Strong earnings and guidance. The announced secondary offering of additional shares at 24 is suppressing the stock. Currently trading at 24 seems like a great place to start a position.

Then there is SNOW. The news that Berkshire and Buffet have been investing in SNOW is a bit shocking. The last stock I would guess that the Oracle of Omaha would buy. Either Buffet is experimenting with Ayahuasca in his advanced age, or he has early stage dementia and thinks SNOW sells snow mobiles and snow blowers in Canada. Even after this sell off and SNOW being down about 45% from its high, it’s still trading at about 80 times sales. This is still one expensive stock that will probably continue to grow rapidly, but it seems that the stock price is way ahead of itself.

So I started a position this morning in SKLZ and PINS. Hate owning so many stocks, but these two seem like real bargains to me in this sell off and taking the emotion out of current conditions, I have to stay focused on two to three years from now, not the next few days or few weeks.

I just can’t pull the trigger on SNOW even after this big sell off. Probably a mistake on my part not to join the great Buffet.


TMB
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No. of Recommendations: 7
Hi TMB,

I love PINS here though I don't own it or plan to buy it. I chose ETSY over PINS in Aug 2020 and added to ETSY during the first leg of this growth stocks crash. I/we own 20 stocks directly, my 401k is ETF only though I have made it "concentrated" enough so that 95% of net worth is in 82 positions, not bad considering the limitations. My wife can only do SPX or worse in her 401k and I don't count that here.

So, I track and sum up revenue growth, gross margin, and profit margin for all those 81 companies (1 position being GBTC). PINS scores a total of 188. There are only a handful of companies above 200: ZM at 469 (lol), IIPR 263, NARI 250, ETSY 229, PDD 208, SQ 207.

I will keep watching PINS. If for some unfathomable to me reason we keep going down from here, I will find a way to add new money and PINS will be on the table. My indirect exposure to PINS currently amounts to 0.80% of net worth, PINS is #48.

I looked at SKLZ, but I don't follow that space; looked very interesting though. I have no exposure to it.

As for SNOW, I own a small position directly (1.67% currently) and also about as much indirectly for a total of 0.71% of net worth. I know this sounds silly here but such is life with an ETF only 401k and 0.71 is respectable vs a typical index fund based situation where it would be like 0.017.

I think SNOW is a must-own going forward because what they do is at the heart of the digital transformation, i.e. unless you can really get all the data in one place and make it easy to analyze you can never have transformational problem-solving such as large-scale AI or even just true large-scale data analytics. Given the information provided by those familiar with the tech, I conclude that what companies like AYX offer looks like a kid's toy compared to the potential unleashed by having unencumbered access to all the data all the time.

Dunno what a good comparison would be. Maybe imagine being able to search the entirety of the TMF forums database with a couple clicks and get fast, reliable, and comprehensive results.

The SNOW valuation is still insane, which is why I am not adding. But if I had no position now, I would start a small one at these levels.

I am pretty sure it was not Buffet who chose SNOW though he must have OK-ed and I vaguely recall that one of the BRKB companies is using SNOW. Maybe it is worth googling to see if that's true.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway bought in on the Snowflake IPO. Their investment doubled immediately.

Really like the company and their future. Biggest issue for me is the valuation. Hard to see the price appreciating significantly over the short term.
If I had money to invest and ignore for 5 years, SNOW would be good spot. Their last earning call was outstanding with RPO exceeding a billion banked.

"Remaining performance obligations of $1.3 billion grew 213% year on year, reflecting strength in sales across the board."
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No. of Recommendations: 4
Yes, there may be disadvantages in managing billions, but there are pros as well.

There is a very recent post by Bear on Saul's board that is worth reading.

Looking at how my account is closing the day, I am starting to see a couple things:

1/ I am not sure what spooked the algos today, but the mass big money rates trade seems to be fading, which only matters because...

2/ Companies are starting to uncouple from one another. And here is what I am eyeballing over the last 3 days.

A-grade, putting up a good fight: DDOG, SHOP, ETSY, BAND, NET, SNOW, SQ
B-grade, undecided: TDOC, NARI, OLO

unsurprisingly weak: AI, CLOV

Not sure about the others.

In my 401k, my tiny LIT position is getting trounced which is what I deserve for fooling around (I did make 50% on a three times larger LIT position in summer 2020 so I cannot complain much).
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No. of Recommendations: 2
Hi MAS
I’m putting a limit order in at 214 on SNOW. 213 seems to be the low when they first came public, or maybe the closing price low and that low was hit again just recently. Seems like a common sense place to start a position.

I thinks everyone agrees that SNOW could be the next powerhouse large cap tech and might even be a FANG type name at some point. Hey FANG could use an “S”. Since everyone also agrees that it’s incredibly overvalued, it may just stay that way and always be way overvalued.

Kind of reminds me of AMZN 10 years ago, but looking at the history even AMZN was never as overvalued as SNOW, and that’s saying something.


TMB
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No. of Recommendations: 4
Doesn'tlook much like tasty treats where i'm sitting.

I have been officially told the reason i'm not doing so well is because i have lost focus. Ouch!

Market is playing games and i am the one getting blamed.

Serves me right for investing for those who dont want to take the time to get in the game themselves.

Little they know i have voted for all the winners in the tournament Champ is holding. mmmm

Bella
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No. of Recommendations: 2
Hey TMB,

I’m putting a limit order in at 214 on SNOW. 213 seems to be the low when they first came public...

If it makes you feel better (unlikely :)) Here is what the 15 analysts think:

High: $350
Low: $264
Consensus: $294


I don't pay much attention to analysts - especially with high-flying tech - but it's interesting here because many of the local favs show *all* analysts' estimates below current price, and it's only March. My interpretation: You probably wouldn't get hurt buying SNOW close to today's price.

Of course I could be wrong, blah, blah, blah...

Dan
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No. of Recommendations: 2
Oops, should have mentioned 10 rate it as HOLD, 5 as BUY, 0 as SELL, which all sounds pretty realistic to me. I suspect SNOW may never become "reasonably" priced unless they really screw something up, and that doesn't seem to be their M.O., so ...

D, cowardly sold SNOW last year @ $340-something.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Well, come back, black sheep, come back to the fold!

I am starting to contemplate adding a little new money to SNOW. But gotta audit our finances first.

Is that Raptor screen name a reference to a certain long-travel truck with a fairly successful second generation?

On a related note, I really like the tone and feel of this forum.
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No. of Recommendations: 9
Well we are in agreement that SNOW has a bright future, so it has to be owned, even if it’s a smaller position in ones portfolio.

On a personal note all the restaurants are absolutely booming right now. There is so much pent up demand, even with limited seating and colder nights outdoors, we are doing the biggest numbers we’ve ever done. The locations in AZ are also off the charts.

My feeling is that this last year was a big savings year for people that didn’t lose their jobs. So many worked from home, so you think about travel expenses, clothing. People cooked at home so much more. Worked out at home. Weren’t getting their hair done, all that personal grooming stuff. Massages, spinning classes, flights for work or leisure. Vacations. In the meantime wealth was created in the stock markets.

I think credit card bills were cut in half or more. I know we as a household easily spent 50% less a month.

So from my vantage, people are out spending money. At least in our restaurants. I won’t even get into the loans, grants that we have received as part of the stimulus packages. The government is handing out money like candy to anyone that knows how to, or has a solid accountant and relationship with a personal banker. It’s simply nuts.

Headed for my best year ever financially, outside of the stock market. Simply Crazy.


TMB.
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No. of Recommendations: 4
Hey all, I love the design of Snowflake and believe DWaas (Data Warehouse as a Service) is probably one of the most sticky type of SaaS businesses because of how much of a royal pain it is to migrate data. Because DWs both take and provide data from/to numerous sources, projects usually involve many teams, cost in the millions and take at least 6-12 months to execute. I have firsthand experience in managing some of these projects, though not in the lead role.

Besides that, Data Warehouses are expensive for companies to maintain. You need lots of CPU to run massive queries on databases. Much of the time this capacity is unused. It's the epitome of waste and cloud is the perfect solution.

Anyways, I did a quick exercise on the valuation today:

First, TAM. Teradata is another DW provider. Quick google shows market share of 8.58% and 2020 revenue of 1.83 billion. So TAM is 1.83B / 0.0858 = 21.4B. Other market studies I googled are not far off. Top one had TAM at 30B by 2025 (that's less than 10% growth per annum from 21B, so pretty conservative). Let's say around 25B in 2023.

SNOW revenue in 2020 is 592 million. Let's assume revenue growth of 100% per annum.

SNOW market cap as of today is 48.5B. Let's assume price growth of 40% per annum.

Doubling revenue every year results in 4.7B in revenue by 2023, or about 20% market share. How about the PS ratio over this period?


Price Revenue
Year Growth Mcap Growth Revenue PS
2020 48.5B 0.6B 81.8
2021 40% 67.8B 100% 1.2B 57.3
2022 40% 95.0B 100% 2.4B 40.1
2023 40% 132.9B 100% 4.7B 28.1


PS ratio drops to less than 30 for a 100% grower, which anyone would consider a great deal, right? And all this time assuming 40% CAGR.

So SNOW still looks like a home run to me if you believe they will grow 100% per annum for a few years. I know Bear recently posted about SNOW on Saul's board about how customer growth is a leading indicator and revenue growth will follow. His statements make It makes total sense to me.

I'm a bit of an amateur at this so please feel free to point out any mistakes. This may look more like a post at Saul's but you know what they think of PS ratios over there :(

Long SNOW but in the red :(
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Speaking of SNOW my limit order at 215 hit, now have an about 1% position.

Best to all,
Bob
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No. of Recommendations: 2
With today's minor puking, I have limit orders to nibble on:
ASAN
FVRR
ROKU
SE
SKLZ

Gulp...expecting further projectile regurgitation, but deploying at the "right " prices for me...


5
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No. of Recommendations: 9
“Speaking of SNOW my limit order at 215 hit, now have an about 1% position. “

Well my limit order hit at 214 so nah nah nah nah nah nahhhh! ;)


Also just picked up a nibble on SKLZ at 21.50.

So an ugly churn. Again much needed and that February blast off was the tell of all tells. So much greed and everyone in the same names, piled in like it was the last ship off a dying planet.

So this looks as if it’s going to take a lot longer to play out. I think what’s needed is for investors to be petrified, not just scared somewhat. I just don’t think there’s been enough of a shake out of the same names after this historic run.

When I start reading how investors are giving up on hyper tech and will never touch it again, I’ll be more convinced that a bottom is in place, or at least forming. In the meantime I’ll hold through this churning and nibble along the way, and of course I might be totally wrong and we go straight back up from here.

TMB
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No. of Recommendations: 3
When I start reading how investors are giving up on hyper tech and will never touch it again, I’ll be more convinced that a bottom is in place

---

That is where my head has been at for a while.
March 5th lows were enticing, but still weren't exactly "cheap" or "oversold" when looking at either last 3, 6, or 12 months.

I think perspective matters.
Is 15% a meaningful dip when the stock just grew 200% the previous TTM? Especially when viewed in context that, outside of perhaps ZM/ETSY/PINS, that most companies didn't have better growth numbers in 2020 than they did the year prior.

Not saying these will end up at end of 2021 lower than they started, but maybe it is a year to grow into the multiples granted in 2020 a bit, with more muted stock price growth for next few months.

Honestly though, given the social media, fintwit, and looking at the rebound from March 2020 lows, I just don't think the markets, or individual stocks, have long thoughtful dormant periods anymore. Much like we consume news instantly and demand immediate updates and responses, the market just seems more efficient in pricing things up or down quickly.

So I expect:
1. perhaps we get a "market puke" moment.
2. the rebound will, once again, be fairly swift.

One new wrinkle that I am sensing from supposedly intelligent macro fintwitters, is that this is a churn market for a while. So perhaps there is a #3, that reads:

3. Rinse and repeat for much of 2021.


Who knows. This is all coming from a guy still waiting (hoping) for a sub-$500 TTD re-entry price. Ha.


Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 5
So wanted to share this tweet from Knox Ridley from Morgan Stanley.

Makes a lot of sense to me at least. The gist is that Japan has been to major seller of US treasuries and lays out the reasons behind their selling. More importantly for us is that Japans fiscal year ends March 31st, and their theory is that once Japans new year starts on April 1st, that they will reverse course and be major buyers of US equities.

This along with this huge stimulus package about to hit our economy with massive consumer spending is going to be great for US equities. So I wouldn’t now be surprised if this week is the low in the markets, and especially tech growth names.

Take a look. Really makes sense. https://twitter.com/knox_ridley/status/1374532667887120392?s...


TMB
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No. of Recommendations: 1
“major buyers of US equities. “

Meant to say US treasuries.

Oh will MF boards ever have an edit button. What year is it? ;)
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No. of Recommendations: 6
Just took a look: what a beating! Back to sell-it-all carnage.

I added what I could to my cash position. It is peanuts but I won't be transferring any more cash unless we go substantially lower from here.

The money is earmarked for SNOW and AI.

I regard tech analysis as mostly entertaining. So here is some fun:

You can see what you want: take SNOW. We got a new intraday low today and a new closing low is possible indicating further downside fun. But the RSI 21 is establishing a higher low and the MFI is outright trending positive. SNOW is on the support level. But the OBV is negative. The super short term RSI 7 is decidedly on higher low. There is no real long term for SNOW so there is that.

And there is a study I looked into that showed the MFI 40, which is flat for SNOW, as arguably the most reliable indicator along with RSI and ADX. ADX looks like the trend should end when it comes to analogy wit the past but then again, SnOW has a very short past and the absolute number is far from reliable.

One thing I will say about tech analysis is that for 18 months for watching the market I have never seen a stock sustain ADX above 50. Of course, I have never watched GME and the like so there is that:)

And this is why I will add a little soon and not worry to time it. If we go noticably lower, I will add a little more. If we get to 2001 down the road, I will add all I can....

my personal fun guess for the sake of conversation and looking dumb in a few months (or sooner!) is that this is it and we will not be going much lower from here. If we do, I will add, if we don't, I will enjoy the returns on what is in already.
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No. of Recommendations: 5
I have a lot of limit orders in place at lows I didn’t think would hit a +ovule of weeks ago, but now it looks like a real possibility.

SNOW next add at 195, then 175.

MGNI at 35 and 33 possibly, but also 28.

FUBO at 26 is a steal. Limit order in at 24 just in case.

NET limit order in at 65. I have many more at lower levels.

So I only nibbled today on a couple of positions. Fist buy ever on SNOW at 214 and a small add to ROKU at 321.

I did sell out of VYGVF at 20 in my tax free account, but still have a 2% position in my taxable account. Just a hedge as it looks like this one might take a pretty big hit before it finds support.


TMB
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No. of Recommendations: 2
Is that Raptor screen name a reference to a certain long-travel truck with a fairly successful second generation?

Nope. Long ago and far away, my family would travel the Midwest pulling a trailer load of ATVs and discover new trails and hills to climb. Raptor refers to what was at the time, the fastest production model of ATV on the planet, the Polaris Raptor 660. My son, then 9-12, even had a mini 300cc version of the Raptor. I sure miss those days. My Harley, our ATVs, our jetskis (also had the fastest made at the time-also Polaris, come to think of it), all gone. Probably will sell my aging Corvette this spring too. Darn!

Simply a dumb name for a dumb guy.

Dan, needs a new toy!
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Midwest pulling a trailer load of ATVs and discover new trails and hills to climb

---

Wait.
They have hills in the Midwest?

Where?
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No. of Recommendations: 2
..this tweet from Knox Ridley from Morgan Stanley.

Knox works for Beth. The tweet is from Zero Hedge. How does he have information about Morgan Stanley? Personally, if I want Morgan Stanley news I'll get it from Mike Wilson. I just don't like Zero Hedge. Every time I see that picture of Brad Pitt without a shirt my stomach turns. Zero Hedge is definitely not a tasty treat.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Hi Fade,
I’m a bit confused by your post, can you share who Mike Wilson is?

“Knox works for Beth.”

Would like to correct you on a couple of points. Knox works with Beth, they are a team.

Not sure what your point is on the Morgan Stanley report and why it would matter who shares it, Zero Hedge or Mike Wilson. I frankly have no idea who either are, not sure why it’s strange that Knox shared the info., seems like it’s a tweet he was sharing with his followers. Regardless it’s an interesting report and worthwhile info.


TMB
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The tweet wasn't from Morgan Stanley it was from Zero Hedge. Mike Wilson works for Morgan Stanley.
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Thanks Fade for clarifying who Mike Wilson is.

So are you saying that because the story was second hand info, not the actual Morgan Stanley report, that it shouldn’t be trusted? I understand that it is a story about a report, is that what you are implying?
Like I said I’ve never seen anything from that website, so have you had past experiences with them that they have misrepresented news or financial reports? Or is this a case where you feel these reports shouldn’t be public knowledge and reported on outside the Morgan Stanley community.

TMB
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No. of Recommendations: 0
I wrote earlier: "With today's minor puking, I have limit orders to nibble on:
ASAN
FVRR
ROKU
SE
SKLZ"

The only order that hit today was SKLZ @ $20...

5
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No. of Recommendations: 0
I wrote earlier: "With today's minor puking, I have limit orders to nibble on:
ASAN
FVRR
ROKU
SE
SKLZ"

The only order that hit today was SKLZ @ $20...




No problem. I own a bit of all of those oops, except ROKU.

How much would you like of each? Please reply before tomorrow's open. :)

Dan
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Pre-market I have fills for SE and FVRR...still gulping :)

5
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No. of Recommendations: 5
This market wants to go down.

The good news is that finally the Fear and Greed Index is starting to fall from neutral into deeper fear and hopefully extreme fear soon. Always a better sign when extreme fear is breached that the market can find a bottom IMO.

The indicator really seems to work in the extreme fear area as it’s called major bottoms the last two times for certain. No idea if it gets there this time, but if it does I’ll go 100% invested for certain.


TMB
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No. of Recommendations: 2
Hmmm...

In 2020 we were in extreme greed for a while before we hit a bottom of 2 in March.

I don't think we more than touched extreme greed this time around, if that.

Also, our stocks are now moving differently, so by the time the entire market tanks, if that is what happens, we may be moving up already....

This is partly why I have been surprised by the power of the dark side this time around. I did look at my 401k in Feb and I was like "man, if I sell here, I have a nice return for the year." But I thought we could go further before rotating maybe 30% of the money away from air raid and into catenaccio. But yeah.

I think if we don't turn the corner today/tomorrow/Monday things will get really ugly, just based on lower lows, etc. Could be a slow, painful drift, too.

So far today, I dipped my toes in NET, SNOW, and U. I have peanuts to add anyway. But, I too will have something more substantial ready if we go much lower from here.
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“In 2020 we were in extreme greed for a while before we hit a bottom of 2 in March.”

We were, but it was still a great time to buy stocks, but I should have also clarified that when it hit that all time low of 2 or 3, which it also hit on the last trading day of 2018, it marked the exact bottom.

I suppose if you only invested, bought stocks over the last few years when this indicator was in extreme fear you would have done very well, and could have even considered yourself a very good market timer. ;)

All my limit orders are in place just in case.


TMB
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No. of Recommendations: 1
“I think if we don't turn the corner today/tomorrow/Monday things will get really ugly, just based on lower lows, etc. Could be a slow, painful drift, too. “

Why for me that Morgan Stanley research on US Treasuries and Japans fiscal year ending March 31st is so interesting. If true, if Japan reverses course and starts buying US Treasuries, it could mark a bottom as well. Just something to watch.


TMB
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Or is this a case where you feel these reports shouldn’t be public knowledge and reported on outside the Morgan Stanley community.

Actually looking over the website it's not bad at all. It seems to be a site with plenty of good information. At some point I had a dislike for Zero Hedge. It's probably the whole "Fight Game" thing he does.

TMB you were just reporting what Knox was reporting who was reporting what Zero Hedge was reporting about what Morgan Stanley was reporting. ha ha
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No. of Recommendations: 6
In between yesterday and today, I deployed the little I could reasonably spare. unlike in 2020, I am confident I waited longer but I also had less to deploy. Again, if we for some unfathomable reason do go a full 2000-1, I will find a way to deploy a great deal more. But short of another big decline from here, I am done. I can sell TDOC and/or my new OLO positions to re-allocate but would rather not.

Today, my taxable account went +2%, -2%, seems it will close at +1.5%. Crazy.nonsense.again. Almost feels like big money is just trying to scare small fry out.

So final tally:

On the first low earlier in March, I added 100% to the cost basis of ETSY and 25% to BAND (terrible stock performance despite the comparatively cheap valuation). Added 20% to the cost basis of DDOG.

On the retest of that low yesterday and today, I added about 15-20% to the cost basis of AI, NET, U, and SNOW.
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LOL, my YSAC warrants closed up 52%. That's a first for me. So I am now only -17% on the position :)

Anyone else in this Boston Omaha SPAC?

I had shares, but decided I should actually have warrants instead so sold the shares and bought an equivalent $ amount of warrants so as to command a great deal more shares.

I am very curious what this Warren Buffet related duo will do with the SPAC. This ain't anything like the fancy spacs that have proliferated. Should be a free cash flow cow living on a solid rock....
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