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What I've found after doing this for over 25 years now, is that you're better off with money in varied accounts (i.e., taxable, traditional IRA, and Roth.) I then withdraw money from whatever bucket gives me the lowest average tax liability over the next 10 year period (taking into account both Federal income taxes and IRMAA penalties on Medicare premiums (both Part B & D.)

Part B
https://www.medicare.gov/your-medicare-costs/part-b-costs

Part D
https://www.medicare.gov/drug-coverage-part-d/costs-for-medi...

If you've got everything in your IRA/401k, you've got a tax problem.

intercst
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If you've got everything in your IRA/401k, you've got a tax problem.

That depends entirely on the tax rate you were avoiding when you put that money into the IRA/401k. As someone currently earning just under the 35% threshold, I'll still defer every dollar I'm allowed. If by some lucky accident I end up with a taxable income in retirement that forces me to pay an effective tax rate of 32% or more, well I'll just have to find a way to live with my poor life decisions. ;)
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If by some lucky accident I end up with a taxable income in retirement that forces me to pay an effective tax rate of 32% or more, well I'll just have to find a way to live with my poor life decisions. ;)

At the moment you're in luck as Congress hasn't passed any legislation establishing a 64% marginal tax bracket!

Based on my TurboTax Tax History, my effective tax rate is generally 50% of my marginal tax bracket.
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If you've got everything in your IRA/401k, you've got a tax problem.

Yup.


you're better off with money in varied accounts (i.e., taxable, traditional IRA, and Roth.)

When we were getting ready to retire early, we did a checkup with a financial adviser. When we told him how much non-house net worth we had, his comment was "It's all in IRA and 401k, right?"
We said, no, half there and half in regular taxable accounts.

He said, Congratulations, most people make that mistake, you are one of the few clients who have it well distributed in different account types.

But, sadly, you eventually run down the taxable accounts and have to start taking from the tax-advantaged accounts--which are all fully taxed as ordinary income.
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jeffbrig writes,

<<If you've got everything in your IRA/401k, you've got a tax problem.>>

That depends entirely on the tax rate you were avoiding when you put that money into the IRA/401k. As someone currently earning just under the 35% threshold, I'll still defer every dollar I'm allowed. If by some lucky accident I end up with a taxable income in retirement that forces me to pay an effective tax rate of 32% or more, well I'll just have to find a way to live with my poor life decisions. ;)

</snip>


Putting money in an IRA is a bet that your tax rate in retirement will be lower. We're currently in a historically "low tax" regime for upper income earners. It would be surprising if that remains to be the case 10 or 20 years in the future.

intercst
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Putting money in an IRA is a bet that your tax rate in retirement will be lower. We're currently in a historically "low tax" regime for upper income earners. It would be surprising if that remains to be the case 10 or 20 years in the future.

Putting your money in a Roth IRA is betting your tax rate in retirement will be higher.
Putting your money in a Traditional IRA is betting your tax rate in retirement will be lower.

Congress never fails to surprise.
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Putting your money in a Roth IRA is betting your tax rate in retirement will be higher.

</snip>


Sure, but there are limits on Roth contributions for high-income earners, though I guess you could get some benefit from a back-door Roth. (At least until someone closes the "loophole".)

https://www.investopedia.com/how-to-set-up-a-backdoor-roth-i...

intercst
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Putting your money in a Roth IRA is betting your tax rate in retirement will be higher.

It's ALSO betting that Congress doesn't decide to up-end the rules and eliminate the tax advantages of IRAs.... of all kinds.

"Oh! They'd never do that!"

LOL..... we can trust them, eh?

Rob
Rule Breaker Home Fool & STMP/MTH Maintenance Coverage Fool
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.
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This is a post that many people should read and ponder.

I, like you, have assets in three buckets (more or less thirds) and did most of my Traditional IRAs with after-tax contributions. I decided (when I was 30) my retirement tax bracket would be higher than my working one. Like you, I have lots of flexibility to manage tax liability.

Two friends - both well off - have 80% in Traditional/401 IRAs, some in Roth, and little in after-tax accounts. They are not liking the future of 22%+ tax brackets and don't have many options....

The government was not dumb when they set up these programs.
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The government was not dumb when they set up these programs.

Indeed.

One of the things that prompted me to retire early (at age 38 in 1994) was the "success tax" on IRAs.

The original IRA legislation had a 15% penalty on annual IRA withdrawals over $160,000/yr. I would have exceeded that limit by my early 40's at my current rate of saving. Why work longer to pay extra taxes on money you're not spending? Why not retire early instead?

July 1997: A TIMELY DEATH FOR A DUMB TAX CONGRESS IS ABOUT TO MAKE THE 401(K) A LOT MORE APPEALING
https://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1997...

</snip>


After they lifted the 15% penalty on "success", well-to-do people started really plowing money into their IRAs. Even though an IRA is taxed as ordinary income and a taxable account benefits from capital gains.

"Conventional wisdom" dies hard.

intercst
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After they lifted the 15% penalty on "success", well-to-do people started really plowing money into their IRAs. Even though an IRA is taxed as ordinary income and a taxable account benefits from capital gains.

"Conventional wisdom" dies hard.


There are other reasons to max out the 401k/IRA. It reduces our MAGI by the contributed amount. Important when you're scraping up against the ACA/Obamacare tax credit eligibility ceiling (not a problem in 21/22, granted).
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It's ALSO betting that Congress doesn't decide to up-end the rules and eliminate the tax advantages of IRAs.... of all kinds.


Sure, but that's always true relative to taxes. You can only plan for current tax law and adjust as laws change.
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If you've got everything in your IRA/401k, you've got a tax problem.

Since it was the 401k, with the never-even-saw-it savings, to say nothing of the company match, that made sure I have savings, I'm grateful to have such a problem. In fact these days none of my real problems are financial. Much to my astonishment I have more than I think I will ever spend.
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Even though an IRA is taxed as ordinary income and a taxable account benefits from capital gains.

Then enter the ROTH IRA to make sure those "well-to-do" folks can get growth for free? Just pay the tax up-front, and all the subsequent cap gains are free.

I always suspected the ROTH wasn't created for ordinary people, even if the original IRA was.
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RHinCT: Since it was the 401k, with the never-even-saw-it savings, to say nothing of the company match, that made sure I have savings, I'm grateful to have such a problem. In fact these days none of my real problems are financial. Much to my astonishment I have more than I think I will ever spend.

Thank you for your very sane input. Lots of folks on this board seem to be obsessed with paying taxes, or avoiding paying. I happily pay my taxes, as my part of the expense of government. Somebody has to pay for all those highways, aircraft carriers, and even the much maligned "give-aways to the poor." They aren't stealing my money. I won't say that I have more than I will ever spend (or could ever spend), but I expect to live out my days in relative comfort. OK, I don't own an airplane or a summer home in the Bahamas, but I don't stay awake nights worrying about money. I am glad to live in the USA and not in Mexico or Nicaragua or Zimbabwe.

CNC
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Agree, CNC. I do not agree with the "taxes are theft" concept. It's ludicrous.

And I also agree that people obsess too much about taxes. If I am paying taxes, that means I had income. Maybe I had a huge cap gain I'm paying taxes on...that means I had a gain. You never owe more in taxes than you got. Only a fraction of it. I'd much rather that than have to be trying to deduct capital losses...

My biggest worry is not becoming a couch potato upon retirement. Not the taxes I pay.
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My biggest worry is not becoming a couch potato upon retirement. Not the taxes I pay.

Me, too! I think I may use some of those cap gains to buy a gym membership - maybe one that has a few drill instructor-like fitness trainers on staff.

Pete
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taxes are theft

Taxes are not theft since no thief has built a road for me or a school for my kids :-)
However... taxes are confiscation. I have no choice but to pay. And politicians act like it's their money, like they are being generous to us. Witness the self-congratulations after stimulus. Both parties do it BTW. Here in California they increased taxes so much in lean years that now the state has a huge surplus. Instead of reducing taxes they are giving the money away. So yes. Starve the beast as much as you can. The beast is too big. (YMMV in Southern states, I admit I am biased as a Californian.)
And not all of us can contribute to Roth, because the max income limit is the same nationally. So rwached much more easily in California or I imagine New York.
</vent>
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What I've found after doing this for over 25 years now, is that you're better off with money in varied accounts (i.e., taxable, traditional IRA, and Roth.) I then withdraw money from whatever bucket gives me the lowest average tax liability over the next 10 year period (taking into account both Federal income taxes and IRMAA penalties on Medicare premiums (both Part B & D.)

That is a great idea. What is a feasible way to do this? My nest egg is definitely dominated by 401k/IRA, but I do have perhaps 25% taxable and 5% Roth.

I have created a big spreadsheet going out 25 years with assumptions about growth of accounts, pension, SS, etc. I can change the amounts taken from the 3 buckets and observe the effect on total wealth 10 years in the future. But it is far from obvious how to optimize overall.
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I have created a big spreadsheet going out 25 years with assumptions about growth of accounts, pension, SS, etc. I can change the amounts taken from the 3 buckets and observe the effect on total wealth 10 years in the future. But it is far from obvious how to optimize overall.

Did you also account for the fact that in 2026, the tax brackets will revert to the prior tax brackets? Until then, anything that you convert at 24% or less will be taxed at a lower rate than the 25% bracket that the current 22% bracket will revert to in 2026.

You do need to watch out for the 3.8% NIIT thresholds since they are not indexed. For MFJ, the 24% bracket already extends past that threshold of $250k. The MFS 24% bracket also extends past the $125k threshold for that status. For single and HOH, the threshold of $200k is still over the top of the 24% bracket, but if inflation continues, the top of the 24% bracket might catch up to it.

If the current tax law does not change (always a possibility), through 2025, you have an opportunity to both increase your percentage of assets in Roth accounts and decrease the total taxes you pay over your lifetime.

AJ
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Engr27 aks,

<<What I've found after doing this for over 25 years now, is that you're better off with money in varied accounts (i.e., taxable, traditional IRA, and Roth.) I then withdraw money from whatever bucket gives me the lowest average tax liability over the next 10 year period (taking into account both Federal income taxes and IRMAA penalties on Medicare premiums (both Part B & D.)>>

That is a great idea. What is a feasible way to do this? My nest egg is definitely dominated by 401k/IRA, but I do have perhaps 25% taxable and 5% Roth.

I have created a big spreadsheet going out 25 years with assumptions about growth of accounts, pension, SS, etc. I can change the amounts taken from the 3 buckets and observe the effect on total wealth 10 years in the future. But it is far from obvious how to optimize overall.

</snip>


As aj suggests in post #103250, your goal is to minimize your lifetime taxation (and I'd add, maximize the amount of any refundable tax credits you may qualify for.)

The bedrock of this analysis is the fact that there is no requirement that any taxes be paid on your taxable account. You can opt to only invest in vehicles that don't spin off interest or dividend payments and you will never pay any taxes until you sell something in the account.

Conversely with "tax advantaged" accounts like an IRA/401k, you are forced to start paying taxes at age 72 when RMDs kick in. That's not a problem as along as your IRA account is small enough that the RMD is only providing an amount of money you can actually spend. Let your IRA get "too large", and the RMD may force you into a higher tax bracket, and the RMD amount may be more money than you can spend -- better to have that kind of wealth in your taxable account where it can remain "untaxed".

When I early retired back in 1994, my assets were roughly evenly split between my IRA and taxable account. The IRA happened to have my two biggest winners (i.e., DELL and Pfizer.) By the late 1990's my IRA was several times the size of the taxable account (and the taxable account had done well in the bull market, too.) At age 40 when I forecasted the account value out to age 70, I realized that the RMDs would put me in the highest tax bracket and likely provide more money than I could reasonably spend. See link:

https://retireearlyhomepage.com/irawithd.html

To address the RMD "problem", I decided to start tapping the IRA at age 40 using a 72(t) SEPP and left my taxable account to grow untouched (other than the small amount of dividends it was spooling off.) With continued growth in the IRA over the subsequent 20 years to age 59-1/2, the SEPP withdrawals were also were providing "more money than I was spending", but it would have been worse if I did nothing.

Qualifying for Refundable Tax Credits

When Obamacare was signed into law in 2010, I was apparently one of the few people that actually took the time to "read the bill". I was astonished to find that there was no "asset test" in the legislation, they just looked at income. You could own $100 million worth of Berkshire Hathaway and qualify for free health insurance if you were able to keep you taxable income low enough.

Since I had budgeted $20,000/year for health insurance premiums from age 60 to 65, the prospect of "free Obamacare" looked appealing. While others ranted on FoxNews about the "evils of Obamacare", I got to work on the project of making my taxable account "Obamacare ready" by minimizing that last bit of interest and dividend income the taxable account was spooling off. When I reached age 59-1/2 and was able to end the SEPP withdrawals, the remaining interest and dividend income I had left put me comfortably in the ballpark for a big refundable tax credit. I was able to fund the rest of my annual spending needs by taking capital gains and spending down a portion of my fixed income account which generated very little in taxable capital gains. During the last few years of Obamacare, I was able to get my monthly premium down to $1.43/month -- less than $20/year. Big difference from $20,000.

https://retireearlyhomepage.com/obamacare_2017.html

Roth Conversions

I started Medicare in 2021, so my income is no longer restricted by Obamacare. My plan is to do Roth Conversions for the next 7 years to age 72 to continue to whittle down the size of my IRA with the goal of of leveling out my tax liability in the future. I'll likely still get a jump in tax bracket when the RMD begins, but hopefully it will be a lower one. (Also: my plan is to delay SS to age 70.)

So that's it. Optimizing your taxation is a fluid project. The biggest danger I see is letting your IRA/401k grow too large. But there may be other opportunities that spring up like the tremendous "gift of Obamacare" that brought me $20/year insurance premiums. You're better able to capitalize on these opportunities if you have several buckets of cash & assets to draw from. You want to tap the account that at any given point in time does the most to reduce your "lifetime taxation".

I'm in the market for a new automobile, but now I think I'll wait for the $12,500 tax credit on electric vehicles in the proposed "Infrastructure" bill. It pays to keep up on your reading.

intercst
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My plan is to do Roth Conversions for the next 7 years to age 72 to continue to whittle down the size of my IRA with the goal of of leveling out my tax liability in the future.

What is your constraint on how much to convert? I assume you are filling up one of the tax brackets.

I am soon to be 62 and may retire at the end of 2021. I would have a decade to do Roth conversions.

I can delay SS until 70. I also will have a pension that can be delayed but the reward for doing so isn't nearly as generous as SS. So it's not clear if that makes sense
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What is your constraint on how much to convert? I assume you are filling up one of the tax brackets.

</snip>


For Roth Conversions, you are constrained by both tax bracket and IRMAA penalties (and as aj points out, there's also a Net Investment Income Tax of 3.8% that kicks in at $200,000 for singles, $250,000 married)

I'd pay special attention to the IRMAA penalties (both Part B & Part D) since they are step functions. You don't want to go $1 over the IRMAA limit that triggers the higher Medicare premium. You may as well top out that IRMAA bracket since you're paying the extra premium anyway.

If we get a big market drop over the next several years, I'll likely increase the size of my Roth Conversions. It would be advantageous to move more traditional IRA money to the Roth account while stock values were lower.

intercst
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I happily pay my taxes, as my part of the expense of government.

That's wonderful that so many of you are "happy to pay taxes" and "proud to pay taxes." The thing is, I could be just as happy for half the money.

By being prudent now, I can fill the 22% federal bracket with Roth IRA conversions. Later, when I'm drawing social security, by living off the Roth money and "just enough" regular IRA money, my social security will be subjected to 50% of it being taxed and maybe even (some of it) 0%. If I just shrug my shoulders and proudly pony up whatever Turbo Tax says I owe without doing any of this planning, my IRA withdrawals *may* be at 22% in the future, but it's looking like the tax brackets will revert to higher levels about the time I hit FRA. If I do no Roth conversions now, I'll pay that (potentially higher) rate PLUS 85% of my SS will be taxed at that same marginal rate.

So, I fully recognize that Uncle Sam will get his chance to take his cut, and I don't begrudge the IRA money being taxed because it got me a tax deduction plus grew tax deferred for decades. But, playing by the rules that are in place, I can improve my position legally. Well, the rules may change, so I'm hedging rather than leveraging that all the decisions made right now will turn out to be optimum.
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FWIW, my simpleton plan is to live off my 401K when I hit 59.5. That way when RMDs strike, the account will be reduced. I won't have to wait that long since I am not far from that age already, and can live off the taxable account until then.

I also want to liquidate a lot of my ESPP since I'm overweight in company stock. I'll do that gradually so as not to jump to a higher bracket. Plus it pays dividends, which could affect the ACA benefit we could get.

I may not squeeze everything out that I can, but I think it will be adequate to secure our future. I do want to take some common-sense measures, but I don't want it to be a full-time preoccupation to chase-down every possible angle. Not that there is anything wrong with doing that, it's just not what I want to do with the years I have left.

Didn't know about the increase in tax credit for EVs. Pretty cool. Maybe we'll have to get another one. Both our ICE vehicles are getting old, so selling them my be appropriate.

I'll also probably be doing ROTH conversions as I can. Doesn't hurt, right? We've already been doing them with 1poorlady's non-deductible IRA contribution (utilizing the "back door").

And since the ACA survived (again), looks like we'll be able to get some decent premiums on a policy for the next 7 or so years to Medicare.
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FWIW, my simpleton plan is to live off my 401K when I hit 59.5

If you have company stock in your 401(k), you may want to look at the NUA (Net Unrealized Appreciation) option once you hit 59 1/2 Because NUA requires you to completely empty the 401(k) in the same year you do the NUA, you would need to roll the rest of the 401(k) assets into an IRA.

AJ
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That's wonderful that so many of you are "happy to pay taxes" and "proud to pay taxes." [...] But, playing by the rules that are in place, I can improve my position legally.

I don't see these as mutually exclusive or necessarily having any correlation/causation.

Someone can utilize any and all tools available to legally reduce their tax burden but separately also be happy to pay more taxes at the end of the day because it means they've earned more income. If given a choice between paying $0 on $100k/year income for the rest of one's life or a seemingly high amount of tax on $1M/year income (also managed to the extent possible to reduce tax liability), I'd think the choice is clear and the taxpayer can certainly feel happy/proud about that.
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I'm in the market for a new automobile, but now I think I'll wait for the $12,500 tax credit on electric vehicles in the proposed "Infrastructure" bill. It pays to keep up on your reading.

Just a personal observation.
We just took a 350 mile (each way) trip to see the twin grandkids, in our Honda CR-V. On the way down we filled the tank before we left, topped it off half the way there when we stopped to grab a McDonald's and soda. 3 minutes to pump the gas, 5 minutes for restroom, 5 minutes at MickyDee.
Did not notice ANY EV recharge stations.

On the way back I filled up at Walmart (cheapest gas around) on the way out of town.
Not quite halfway, we stopped (at a different station than on the way there), but didn't bother to get gas, just a bite to eat and restroom stop. This station had two (2) EV charge stations and 28 gas pumps.

Twice we got caught up in highway construction. 10 miles crawling between 1 MPH and 5 MPH.

I tried to picture what a nightmare that trip would have been in an electric vehicle. I don't care what the range claims are, there is no way I would have let it go more than 100-150 miles before taking a recharge. So....two ~1 hour charge stops each way. Assuming that there was no wait for the charge station. Which isn't a good bet, seeing as this gas station saw the need to install 28 gas pumps.
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What is your constraint on how much to convert? I assume you are filling up one of the tax brackets.

Do you file Married Joint?
Make a little spreadsheet with a quick-and-dirty estimate of your taxable income and the tax owed, for the next few years.

Then make another set of figures for one partner being deceased. The lower SS income stops, perhaps a pension stops, and the tax is now figured Single instead of MFJ.

You may decide it is a good idea to go further into the current tax brackets now, just to avoid the greatly different brackets later.
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No worry there. Our 401K is through Fido. No stock. Though I think I have to roll it within 6 months(??) after I leave employment anyway.

1poorguy
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I don't care what the range claims are, there is no way I would have let it go more than 100-150 miles before taking a recharge.

Frankly, that's just silly. If you have 250 miles of range, and there are chargers 200 miles away**, you don't need to stop after 150 miles to charge. It would be like saying "I'm not going to let the gas tank drop below 1/3 full". You can do that, of course, but I think very few people have that self-imposed rule.

A more legit complaint, IMO, is that it takes longer to charge than to fuel-up.

Getting caught in traffic is no big deal. It's not like the car is idling. When you stop, it shuts off. You'll burn a little juice for the console electronics, and maybe the A/C if you're using it, but that is trivial. Annoying in any vehicle, but trivial. OTOH, I have an ICE that calculates my mileage, and when I'm stuck in traffic the rate goes down dramatically after 20 or 30 minutes. For an EV? It doesn't really care. Sometimes it even goes up (regen braking is wonderful).

1poorguy (owns an EV, planning a road trip next week)



**Charging stations are not as ubiquitous as gas pumps, so if you own an EV you will (or should) know where the chargers are before you leave.
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Though I think I have to roll it within 6 months(??) after I leave employment anyway.

Not if it's more than $5,000 The law requires employers to allow former employees with accounts of more than $5,000 to keep their money in the 401(k) plan. If it's less than $1,000, they can send you a check. If it's between $1,000 and $5,000, they have to either let you keep it in the plan, or set up an IRA to roll it into.

The employer can provide incentives for you to roll the money into an IRA by, for example, charging extra fees for those who are no longer employees.

AJ
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Rayvt, in case you interested in learning about EV travel and not just dismissing it... (Full disclosure, I am a Tesla stock holder and plan on buying a Model Y soon.)

If the EV isn't a Tesla, I wouldn't want to try it either. Finding places to charge anything else is still crazy hard. Even with a Tesla it requires planning.

I started with your location as listed in your profile, and arbitrarily picked Dallas as a possible destination, not quite 350 miles but close enough. There are Tesla superchargers at Texarkana and Sulfur Springs, 8 charging stations each. The planning tool suggested 20 minutes at the first, 15 at the second. Nowhere as short as gassing up, but nowhere as long as the two 1-hour stops assumed. I based it on a Model Y; other Tesla models have longer range.

As for creeping and crawling through construction, EVs are exceptionally efficient at low speeds. They can't idle. Regenerative breaking puts some energy back in the battery.

EVs are not the answer to every question, not hardly. But their limits are diminishing.
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Did not notice ANY EV recharge stations.

So what? The current credit also applies to plug-in hybrids with large batteries (i.e., at least 15 kwh). The Toyota RAV4 PRIME gets the full credit just like an all-electric model.

I'm not worried about finding a charger on a major highway, but if you want to drive off the beaten path, a hybrid might come in handy.

intercst
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If the EV isn't a Tesla, I wouldn't want to try it either. Finding places to charge anything else is still crazy hard. Even with a Tesla it requires planning.

</snip>


That's the rub. Why would you want to pay $60,000 for a vehicle that's less convenient to drive and "requires planning" for refueling.

A hybrid with a 40 mile all-electric range would cover 98% of my driving and I'd be able to do all my recharging at home where it's cheaper. On longer trips, I'd just use the ICE and quickly refuel at any convenient location.

intercst
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This is veering off-topic now. So I won't belabor this. But one has to plan fuel stops too. If you're on I10 to L.A. there are long stretches of nuthin'. You need to be sure you can cover the distance to the next gas station.

The only real difference is that there are fewer charging stations than gas stations (for now).
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That's the rub. Why would you want to pay $60,000 for a vehicle that's less convenient to drive and "requires planning" for refueling.


Yeah, I just did a quick search (https://chargehub.com/) and found 6 charging locations listed. The first has 2 ports, is about 4 miles off the Interstate, located in the parking lot of an electric company office. The second is at a Walmart, 5 plugs, right off the Interstate.
Third is a Tesla supercharger. Cool if you have a Tesla, not good if you have something else.
4th is at a grocery store 5 mi off the Interstate,
Then another Tesla station.

Compared to probably 100+ gas stations with 12-28 pumps each, located right at a almost every other highway exit. Close enough together that we can pull off whenever the wife or kids announces that she had to go.
No planning required. No hunting for the charger location with google maps.

FWIW, Scotty the car guy on Youtube recently mentioned to a caller about getting a used Nissan Leaf because it's a cheap and fun little EV car. A local(ish) dealer has one--2015 with 43,000 miles, for $10,000.
I mentioned it to my wife. Also mentioned the 80 mile range.

She had 2 comments:
1) Forget it if you expect me to plug in a stupid car every time we get back home.
2) 80 mile range....So it'll get us to town and back as long as we don't make hardly any side trips.
2a) Don't expect me to be happy if you run out of juice 5 miles from home.
2b) Forget it.

On longer trips, I'd just use the ICE and quickly refuel at any convenient location.

Yeah, that's the whole point. Convenience. Plus I kinda figured out how much gas you could buy for the $20,000 (?) higher price. About 7400 gallons. At 33 MPG, it would take 244,000 miles to break even. That's assuming no cost to recharge.
Gggole says about 30KWH for 100 miles, so 244,000 miles would be 73200 KWH. My electricity including tax is $0.115 per KWH, so the electric for for 244,000 miles would be about $8400. Not free.

Doesn't matter. Even if the electricity was free, 244,000 miles is well beyond the useful lifetime of my car.

I'd just use the ICE

That means you have to have 2 cars. One to tinker around town in, one for "real" usage.

Being retired, our second car is a FUN car. Was relatively cheap, it came off a 3 year lease with 13,000 miles, we've had it for 13 years and put another 30,000 miles on it. We have it for FUN, not practicality. Retired, remember?
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<u>there are long stretches of nuthin'. You need to be sure you can cover the distance to the next gas station.

True that! In lots of stretches in the US there is nothing. There have been a couple of times in all our trips when we prayed for a gas station.

I mentioned that we filled up as we left the Dallas area. We stopped once, but did not get any gas. Decided to push through so we'd get home before full dark. Figured 6 hr drive door to door, and we left at 3:00 in the afternoon.
Most of the way we were going 83 MPH. Fast.

As we pulled into the driveway, I asked her, "Hey we didn't get any gas since Dallas, right?" She agreed, "nope".
Looked at the gas gauge. Still has almost 1/4 tank left.

We used about 10 gallons to drive 330 miles. Honda CR-V. Great milage. The gas cost less than it would have cost to park the car at the airport.
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Ray, after seven years of driving Teslas on road trips, I can tell you that the myriad problems you think exist are strictly in your imagination. Yes, if you buy a hybrid with no battery range or some random piece of junk EV that has no reliable charging network then it's easy to encounter problems. Same as if you buy a beater ICE vehicle and it breaks down on the highway.

With a Tesla, you don't have to think about fueling stops much at all. The car tells you what destinations are reachable and where and how long to charge if you need to. And since it (mostly) drives itself in stop and go traffic and construction zones and long open stretches of highway, you spend your most tiring driving time just monitoring the car and arrive much more relaxed.

The problems you describe are in your head. And the TCO is already comparable to ICE vehicles (and even better if you qualify for incentives) and is dropping every year. So what you get is an amazingly better, safer, more pleasant car. And you never need to visit a gas station again.

But what does this have to do with tax management? Me, I made so much money on short-term TSLA trades in 2020 that I paid more in taxes than I ever earned in a decade when I was a working programmer. I failed utterly to manage my taxes well, and I couldn't be more pleased. It's better to make $10M and pay $5M in taxes than to make $150K and pay $10K, or to make $200K and pay nothing.

-IGU-
(experience more, fear less)
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FWIW, Scotty the car guy on Youtube recently mentioned to a caller about getting a used Nissan Leaf because it's a cheap and fun little EV car. A local(ish) dealer has one--2015 with 43,000 miles, for $10,000.

The Leaf got discovered. A few years ago I bought a 2013 Leaf as it came off lease. Nissan did an upgrade in 2017 (for the 2018 model year) and so many existing lease holders just got the new model. The left a huge glut of used Leafs on the market and dealers just dumped them. Mine was about $8000 out the door, something like that.

Probably the cheapest transportation I've owned and ever will own. Great car, too.
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This is veering off-topic now. So I won't belabor this. But one has to plan fuel stops too. If you're on I10 to L.A. there are long stretches of nuthin'. You need to be sure you can cover the distance to the next gas station.

The only real difference is that there are fewer charging stations than gas stations (for now)


I once drove from Houston to Fort Stockton, both in Texas. Stopped for lunch snack and the fuel gage was high enough I thought to stop for gas later. That part of Texas is described as "mile after mile of mile after mile". I began to get nervous. The sun was setting and there were no towns on our route. The fuel gage looked like we wouldn't get all the way to Ft. Stockton. I slowed down to get better gas mileage (IIRC, the speed limit is 85 along that stretch of I-10.) After while the Countess noticed that I had slowed down and asked why, so I had to tell her. It became quite dark with no stations at all. Finally we saw a lighted sign in the distance, well off the freeway, so we exited and drove a couple of miles to find a little grocery/gas station. Biiiig relief. We got our gas and went on the Ft. Stockton. (No toilets, so I used God's Great Toilet - after all, it was dark. The Countess just clenched a little harder.)

As a sequel to my story, on arriving in Ft. Stockton, all the motels had "No Vacancy" sighs out. We finally took a room in a dump of a place. I invented an excuse and left the Countess while I scoured the area and found a Motel 8. It was much nicer than where we were, so I took a room. Drove back and got the Countess. I was surprised they let us leave and cancelled our credit card charge. Said there was no issue of filling every room. I asked why, and he said the Oil Patch was hot and jobs were plentiful, so men were flocking there to get work.

We actually liked the Motel 8. Would stay there again.

CNC
... good we didn't have an EV.
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I once drove from Houston to Fort Stockton, both in Texas. ... good we didn't have an EV.

Let's see, along I10 from Houston west to El Paso we have the following Tesla superchargers
Houston - 9633 Westheimer Rd, 16 stalls
Katy - 25675 Nelson Way, 12 stalls
Columbus - 2535 Texas 71, 6 stalls
Flatonia - 1415 FM 609 at I-10, 6 stalls
Schertz - 17640 IH 35 N, 6 stalls
Leon Springs - 24165 W I-10 Frontage Rd, 10 stalls
Junction - 2415 N Main St, 8 stalls
Ozona - 1307 Avenue A, 6 stalls
Fort Stockton - 2571 N Front St, 8 stalls
Van Horn - 1921 SW Frontage Rd, 8 stalls
El Paso - 6401 Desert Blvd, 8 stalls

Even the furthest apart stations in West Texas are less than 120 miles apart, which is far less than the real world range of any Tesla. See for yourself: this is a crowdsourced map of Tesla superchargers along with permitted and under construction locations: https://supercharge.info/map.

The way you do such a trip is that your Tesla has been charged up overnight at home before you start and off you go. You let the navigation system plot out a route, and then you modify it as you wish to achieve whatever particular division of stops, side-trips, and food you require. That's it.

Overnighting at some place with slow charging available will let you start out with a full battery in the the morning. Or charging while eating breakfast works nicely.

And since the car can be responsible for most of the stressful and boring parts of the trip, you arrive far more rested than you would in an ICE vehicle. And since the air filtration system is so good, you don't breathe nearly as much nasty gases and particulates on the way, so you feel better too.

If you have a Tesla, you don't even consider driving your ICE unless you absolutely have to. For me, that's getting to be never. With any luck I'll finally be able to convince my wife that it's time to get rid of the 2008 Highlander Hybrid.

But none of this will help you manage your taxes.

-IGU-
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But none of this will help you manage your taxes.

If you had paid attention upthread, it started with a comment about a possible $12,500 tax credit for EVs.

PSU
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https://www.travelmath.com/distance/from/Houston,+TX/to/El+P...
The distance from Houston, Texas to El Paso, Texas is 747 miles,

At least two stops, assuming you start with a full charge. At what speed is the Tesla range computed? Range will be inversely proportional to speed. At 85 mph you will likely need three stops. How long will each charging stop take?

Just sayin'.

The trip I mentioned was Houston to Fort Stockton, not all the way to El Paso*. I don't do 747 miles a day. The next day we drove to Tucson and thence to L.A.

I do miss my old Chevy Venture. It would easily go 500 miles on a tank of gas. I once coaxed it into 700 miles (I hasten to add that the Countess was not on that trip. She would have murdered me at about 600 miles.) But Houston to Ft. Stockton on a tank of gas? No problem. (The trip I discussed was in a Toyota Camry.)

CNC
*Houston to Fort Stockton is only 507 miles.
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It's better to make $10M and pay $5M in taxes than to make $150K and pay $10K, or to make $200K and pay nothing.

Very well put. Totally agree.
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And the TCO is already comparable to ICE vehicles (and even better if you qualify for incentives) and is dropping every year. So what you get is an amazingly better, safer, more pleasant car. And you never need to visit a gas station again.

I should probably check the latest numbers on that. I know TCO is dropping. The tax credit (on those vehicles for which it is still available) helps a lot.

But even then, not every decision has to be based on taxes and money. My mortgage is currently 3.375%. We're paying it off early. We've been paying extra for a few years now. I'm fully aware that if I had that money in the market, I would have gotten considerably more for it**. But we don't want such a large payment anymore. And, frankly, I was expecting the bottom to drop out sometime over the past four years (since the problems in the market really haven't been fixed since 2008, so it's gonna happen again). We're less than two years to pay-off at this rate. Did I calculate how much less I would have to liquidate from assets after I retire when I pay this thing off, to try to manage the capital gains to qualify for the ACA subsidy? Nope. I could have. Did I consider this a "guaranteed 3.375% return"? Yep, because it is.

So was my purchasing a new EV (common wisdom is you should always buy used) smart? Maybe not. But it had the form and function we liked, and was considerably cheaper than a Model S or X (both of which I like), so was within our price range. We still won't have to visit the gas station***, there isn't much to maintain****; basically costs almost nothing to actually own it after you purchase it.

And in two years we'll have a paid-off house, and have to liquidate roughly $24K/yr less than we would otherwise have to do. Which can only help for the ACA subsidy, though I didn't calculate it out.

1poorguy




**Though it wasn't in the market, it was transiting through my checking account that pays less than 1%. A lot less than 1%.
***We still have two ICEs, one of which I want to get rid of. I like our Jeep, though, and it may be some time before an EV can go where a Jeep can.
****Tires, the 12V battery, maybe some lubrication after 50K miles or more, brakes...that's about it, I think.
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Check out https://abetterrouteplanner.com/ for fairly accurate numbers. I told it I have a 2021 Tesla Model 3 Long Range with 18" wheels (which I don't).

It routed a 507 mile trip with three supercharger stops of 17, 13, and 16 minutes. Looks to me like it was figuring on about 72mph on I10. Currently, the Tesla nav system takes into account the wind and temperature on the route, as well as lots of other information to determine your likely efficiency. I'm not sure what this site takes into consideration.

Regardless, you arrive in much better condition than if you powered through the trip in an ICE vehicle. But if you are trying for the shortest possible trip time, the ICE will win by that measure.

If you had paid attention upthread, it started with a comment about a possible $12,500 tax credit for EVs.

Last I saw they were talking about making it a refundable tax credit, in which case it's just a rebate on your purchase and really has little to do with taxes. But we'll see what we see if it happens.

-IGU-
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That is a cool site! I had it plan a trip to see the Count, and it required two stops totally about an hour.

I like it.

(Sorry for not even attempting to be on-topic, but wanted to acknowledge the link provided.)
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Forget it if you expect me to plug in a stupid car every time we get back home.

My wife does not complain about plugging the car in. It's as easy as plugging in any appliance, and it means she starts off each day with a full tank and never needs to stop for gas (and we all know, gas stations are the coldest/hottest places on earth).

We bought an EV for use as our around town car. It's great. Fun to drive, 200HP, instant torque, >250 mile range. We charge it to 200 miles, use anything from 50 to 150 each day. No range anxiety.

She went from 22mpg in her van to >150 mpg equivalent in the EV.

For road trips we'll take the van.
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[Tesla] And since the car can be responsible for most of the stressful and boring parts of the trip, you arrive far more rested than you would in an ICE vehicle.

I swore that I would drop this thread....but come on! This is Tesla fanboy claims.

This isn't Model T driving. This is modern car driving. The stressful parts of the trip are when an 18-wheeler suddenly changes into your lane ahead of you to avoid a car parked on the shoulder. An unexpected hump across the road that tossed the car up in the air and the cruise control beeps and says "Cruise cancelled. Loss of Traction." (Never saw _that_ before! I guess hitting that hump at 80 MPH must have lifted the tires off the road for an instant.)

Modern cars have Adaptive Cruise Control, Lane Keeping Assist, etc. Whether it's a Tesla or a Honda ot a Toyoto, all have this stuff. None of them are less stressful than the others. I would hazard to say that a Honda/Toyota EV doesn't drive much differently than a Honda/Toyota ICE.

Boring? Every damn highway trip is boring. Can't take a nap, can't read a book, have to hold the steering wheel and watch the road and the other cars on the road. Funny thing: the Lane Keeping Assist sometimes complains "Steering Required" when you are on a long flat, straight stretch of road and don't need to -- and therefore don't -- wiggle the steeering wheel.


You let the navigation system plot out a route, and then you modify it as you wish

Humpf. We had no need to "plot out a route". Just glanced at google maps to verify that I-30 would take us to Dallas, get in the car and go. The on-the-road route modifications are usually "Honey, I need to pee, pull off at the next gas station."


Overnighting at some place with slow charging available will let you start out with a full battery in the the morning. Or charging while eating breakfast works nicely.

This of course presumes that you are the only electric vehicle at the motel or restaurant. One motel we stayed at there were probably 40-50 cars in the lot. The 9'th thru 50'th (or maybe 3'rd to 50'th) people are going to have a looooong wait before they get to plug in.

---------
My son has a 10 hour drive from Albuquerque to Dallas to pick up his kids from the other grandparents. Each way. That's a long, boring, tiring drive no matter what kind of car you take, Tesla or Honda.
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Check out https://abetterrouteplanner.com/ for fairly accurate numbers. I told it I have a 2021 Tesla Model 3 Long Range with 18" wheels (which I don't).

That's a nice site, much better than the one I found last night.

I told it I had a non-Tesla (a Honda E--whatever that is. I just wanted to specify something other than Tesla.)

It said 5:30 driving time. Pretty close, it took us 6 hours including a long stop for dinner.

It also said 3 charge stops for 2:16. 2 hours & 16 minutes.
Walmart, strip mall, Walmart 59 min, 1 hr 3 min, 14 min

Walmart has bathrooms, although you'd have to walk from the outlying gas/charging station across the parking lot to the store. Most Walmarts have a Subway or something like that, for food.

Strip mall had.....sushi/Hibachi restaurant. If you wanted to walk 1/4 to 1/2 mile, BBQ place, pizza place, Mexican place. Oh, and a Harbor Freight. Wife would be just absolutely THRILLED to go potty at HF. Not!

But, see, 5 1/2 hr drive, plus 2 1/2 hr for charging. The EV extended the trip time by 50%.

I googeled, and the cheapest Tesla around here is a 2018 Model 3 with 24,000 miles, for $51,000. Dealer is "by appointment only".
A top-end Toyota Camry, new 2021, is $30,000. You can buy a lot of gas for $21,000.
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We bought an EV for use as our around town car. It's great. Fun to drive, 200HP, instant torque, >250 mile range. We charge it to 200 miles, use anything from 50 to 150 each day.

I actually would like an EV for a "fun car". Although a Leaf with 84 mile range wouldn't cut it. ;-(

Can't see paying $45,000+ for a toy, though. Presently our "fun" car is a BMW Z4, 2 seater convertible. 2 1/2 liter engine. Stomp on the gas at 60 MPH and it hits 90 before you can breathe.

Guarantee that people think it is a way cooler car than a Tesla. Or a Leaf.
Last week we were on the freeway frontage road, and a 18-wheeler on the freeway honked his horn at us and waved and gave us a thumbs up. Even a Tesla looks just like another typical sedan.
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Can't see paying $45,000+ for a toy, though. Presently our "fun" car is a BMW Z4, 2 seater convertible. 2 1/2 liter engine. Stomp on the gas at 60 MPH and it hits 90 before you can breathe.


To each his/her own. I love my Tesla Model S. Have had no issues driving all over the Mountain West, Boise to Denver to Jackson Hole to Salt Lake City to Phoenix. The car is quiet, smooth, extremely quick and powerful, comfortable. It's not a toy, it's my sole transportation. Yes, rather expensive, but I've managed to make more money in the stock market in this bull market than I'm going to be able to spend in my lifetime. Prefunded the kids' college, paid off the house. Simply a great car.

Tim
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My wife does not complain about plugging the car in. It's as easy as plugging in any appliance, and it means she starts off each day with a full tank and never needs to stop for gas (and we all know, gas stations are the coldest/hottest places on earth).

The thing I hate jumping in the car to go somewhere realizing I need to get gas first. Never happens with the Leaf. Never going to gas stations is one of the best things about an EV, really.
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Ray: Can't see paying $45,000+ for a toy, though. Presently our "fun" car is a BMW Z4, 2 seater convertible. 2 1/2 liter engine. Stomp on the gas at 60 MPH and it hits 90 before you can breathe.

I s'pect the Z4 cost in the neighborhood of $45K, no? NTTAWWT.

CNC
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Presently our "fun" car is a BMW Z4, 2 seater convertible. 2 1/2 liter engine. Stomp on the gas at 60 MPH and it hits 90 before you can breathe.

Guarantee that people think it is a way cooler car than a Tesla

</snip>


That's not obvious in the sales numbers. The Tesla Model 3 basically killed the German sports sedan.

intercst
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I s'pect the Z4 cost in the neighborhood of $45K, no? NTTAWWT.

More, if you buy new.

We got this one when it came off a 3 year lease. At a very good price. Not even half the price of a new one. Lessee was in Indiana, and it had only 13,000 miles on it.

We did buy a 5 year extended warrantee -- but from PenFed not the dealer.


Hmmmm, ours has a 2.5 liter naturally aspirated engine. The current ones have 2.0 or 3.0 turbocharged. Maybe when the car supply situation gets back to normal it's time to look for another coming-off-lease deal.

Won't be a Tesla, there are no Tesla stores in my entire state.
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"Guarantee that people think it is a way cooler car than a Tesla"

</snip>

That's not obvious in the sales numbers. The Tesla Model 3 basically killed the German sports sedan.


Cool and popular are two different things.
Popular is sales numbers. Cool is looks.

A Tesla just looks like a typical sedan.

People paying $50,000 - $60,000 or more for a car .... don't need to care about the cost of fuel, be it gasoline or electricity.
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It also said 3 charge stops for 2:16. 2 hours & 16 minutes.

Because you put in a non-Tesla. So the charging time is based on the crap NGO public network chargers - not Tesla superchargers. You can't use non-Tesla / super charger charging time and apply it to Teslas.

The PROBLEM is, the lack of fast non-Tesla chargers available yet - not EVs! A solution could be getting fast chargers installed at corner convenience stores; so what if you have to wait 15 minutes instead of 5? Go in grab a coffee, beverage, donut, buy a lottery ticket. The Circle K's / HESS' whatever of the world could install them and mark up the electricity from their commercial rates 100% and still not charge as much as a gas fillup.

A brand new Tesla Model 3 SR+ delivered costs a little north of $39K, assuming the Democrats are not successful in reinstating additional EV credits which would knock the net price down. That's $9K, not $21K.

Whatever. You guys are right. If we're tossing silly straw men around, we should go back to horses and buggies. That was simpler and more reliable.
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People paying $50,000 - $60,000 or more for a car .... don't need to care about the cost of fuel, be it gasoline or electricity.

I paid over $100K for my Model S (although I can get a far better version of the Model S for ~$80K today). However I love that it came with unlimited free supercharging. Roadtrips cost me nothing for fuel. It's easy and typical to compartmentalize being cheap. I shop bargains all the time. I pay for quality when it truly matters.

-IGU-
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Cool and popular are two different things.
Popular is sales numbers. Cool is looks.


Old men such as ourselves arguing what's cool is kind of pathetic. Ask any youngster. Teslas are seriously cool. Pretty much any ICE is totally not.

-IGU-
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I swore that I would drop this thread....but come on! This is Tesla fanboy claims.

These are the observations of somebody with extensive experience, as opposed to all of the things you write, which are pretty much your imagination.

Modern cars have Adaptive Cruise Control, Lane Keeping Assist, etc. Whether it's a Tesla or a Honda ot a Toyoto, all have this stuff. None of them are less stressful than the others. I would hazard to say that a Honda/Toyota EV doesn't drive much differently than a Honda/Toyota ICE.

This is just stuff you're making up because you think it's likely to be true. The reality is that these checkbox features are laughable compared to Tesla's abilities. I've tried quite a few and they're disappointing at best. Come back and make claims when you are less clueless.

Humpf. We had no need to "plot out a route". Just glanced at google maps to verify that I-30 would take us to Dallas, get in the car and go. The on-the-road route modifications are usually "Honey, I need to pee, pull off at the next gas station."

If you say so. Me, I've gotten in the habit of entering my letting the Tesla navigation tell me what I should expect, from traffic jams (which it routes around), to where I would have to charge to make my trip most efficient. I do this even on local trips just because it's sometimes useful. It also means that I can tell people without guessing when I'm likely to arrive.

The 9'th thru 50'th (or maybe 3'rd to 50'th) people are going to have a looooong wait before they get to plug in.

Again, wholly your imagination. My reality is that when I've stayed at motels overnight with chargers that I've never had a problem. As more EVs populate our world, more chargers will appear. Youl might have noticed that hitching posts and stables have disappeared as horses became less common for long distance transportation.

-IGU-
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Old men such as ourselves arguing what's cool is kind of pathetic. Ask any youngster. Teslas are seriously cool. Pretty much any ICE is totally not.

Except, generally speaking, old men have much of the money, so what they think is cool can matter. :)

Draggon
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Good point, Draggon. Heck, I kinda like my new Cayenne TT. ;)

Bill
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Old men such as ourselves arguing what's cool is kind of pathetic. Ask any youngster. Teslas are seriously cool. Pretty much any ICE is totally not.

-IGU-

=========================
Most youngsters know deep down that kids' toys run on batteries.
Real men drive cars, or trucks, that run on gas. Or diesel.

We took a 2-week trip to L.A., went out on Route 66 and came back via Las Vegas and Denver. Drove over 600 miles many days. Couldn't do it in an EV made by anybody.

Bill
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We took a 2-week trip to L.A., went out on Route 66 and came back via Las Vegas and Denver. Drove over 600 miles many days. Couldn't do it in an EV made by anybody.

Yes you can.

https://www.noodoe.com/blog/2020/08/16/historic-route-66-bes...


Andy
Ev's are here folks and it's just getting better
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Old men such as ourselves arguing what's cool is kind of pathetic.

Most youngsters know deep down that kids' toys run on batteries.
Real men drive cars, or trucks, that run on gas. Or diesel.


Illustrating my point perfectly.

But you forgot to write took my horse up into the Black Mountains on a trail and camped for a week. Couldn't do that in a newfangled autocar of any kind.

-IGU-
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Well, old female dogs can argue about “cars”, but anybody seeking the wild and free life has found by riding their motorcycle, specifically a Harley to the mountains….adventure bound.

Those were the days my friends, I thought they’d never end. :)
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"We took a 2-week trip to L.A., went out on Route 66 and came back via Las Vegas and Denver. Drove over 600 miles many days. Couldn't do it in an EV made by anybody."

Yes you can.

https://www.noodoe.com/blog/2020/08/16/historic-route-66-bes......


Andy
Ev's are here folks and it's just getting better


We were at Sam's Club yesterday. Mid-afternoon, midweek. Got gas, 50% full. 16 pumps. Each one was occupied and had another 2-3 cars in line waiting.
On weekends, there is _always_ a longer line, often 4-5 cars waiting in line for each pump island.
We had to wait less than 5 minutes to get to the pump. Hopped out, put hose in tank, drove off 2 minutes later.

Wake me when I can do that in an EV. It's not so much the 20-30 minutes to take on a 50% charge. It's the wait while the EV cars ahead of you in line take their charge.

Usually when we drive in to Sams, we look to see if there is a line for the pumps. If so, we go into Sams first, then get gas afterwards. If no line, we get gas first then go into the store.
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Wake me when I can do that in an EV.

Wake you when your car can take a horse trail and get to its destination on oats? Wake you when your phone can be carried in your hand and have a rotary dial that you're used to? That's what your argument sounds like.

How about simply not making up problems when you have no experience owning an EV and have no idea how it really works? Your fears are born of ignorance.

In reality, never going to a gas station makes life better. Waking up to a "full tank" of electrons because you can charge at home overnight is wonderful. For folks who can't do that for one reason or another, charging at work is often simple and free. For folks who can't do that either, there are many other alternatives that take little or no time because you can do them while you're doing other things.

But it's pretty simple -- if you're scared of the possible problems that you imagine, then don't get an EV. But trying to argue that you know anything about what it's like is just dumb. You don't. I don't mind if you never realize the pleasure of not having had to go to a gas station for the past few months and trying to remember how bad it smells.

-IGU-
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But it's pretty simple -- if you're scared of the possible problems that you imagine, then don't get an EV. But trying to argue that you know anything about what it's like is just dumb. You don't. I don't mind if you never realize the pleasure of not having had to go to a gas station for the past few months and trying to remember how bad it smells.

In the same way you tell people not to make up problems that don't exist, you (and many other EV fans) comment on the stink of gas stations all the time to promote their position. I can't recall the last time I smelled anything bad at a gas station.

PSU
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I paid over $100K for my Model S (although I can get a far better version of the Model S for ~$80K today). However I love that it came with unlimited free supercharging. Roadtrips cost me nothing for fuel. It's easy and typical to compartmentalize being cheap. I shop bargains all the time. I pay for quality when it truly matters.

With all the money you have made off of Apple and Tesla, I think you may have lost some perspective on the finances of the average household. I have seen it in some relatives that grew up poor but are financially well-off today. They forgot how the poorer people live. $100k to you is like $100 to others. $100k is probably more money than most people have in their retirement accounts.

PSU
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With all the money you have made off of Apple and Tesla, I think you may have lost some perspective on the finances of the average household.

No, I don't think so. I advocate that people who can afford an EV buy an EV. Already the total cost of ownership of an EV is less than comparable ICE vehicles. A Cybertruck will be cheaper than a F-150 as well as superior in every way imaginable. The Model Y is already cheaper than a less nice Camry, and will be much cheaper with incentives.

So yeah, if you can't afford a car then don't buy one. But if you can, then buy an EV that's better and cheaper than something you would otherwise buy. Spending more on something worse is just plain stupid.

As I've chronicled elsewhere (https://boards.fool.com/i-answered-quototherquot-because-i-t...), I didn't buy my first Tesla until it was free (paid for with profits from trading TSLA). No way I would have spent that much on a car. I never had before.

-IGU-
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No, I don't think so. I advocate that people who can afford an EV buy an EV. Already the total cost of ownership of an EV is less than comparable ICE vehicles. A Cybertruck will be cheaper than a F-150 as well as superior in every way imaginable. The Model Y is already cheaper than a less nice Camry, and will be much cheaper with incentives.

Cybertruck is butt ugly. I doubt it will ever overtake F-150 sales. Tesla still has not come out with an affordable mid-size SUV.

PSU
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A Cybertruck will be cheaper than a F-150 as well as superior in every way imaginable.

Not really. Those Cybertrucks are U-G-L-Y.

AJ
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But if you can, then buy an EV that's better and cheaper than something you would otherwise buy. Spending more on something worse is just plain stupid.

That's your opinion, and it's based on your needs and priorities. But everyone does not have those same requirements and priorities, so may choose to buy something else. There's a reason there are so many car manufacturers, each with a variety of car models and feature offering.

There really is no one-size-fits-all, and that applies to cars just as well as to other things.
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Cybertruck is butt ugly. I doubt it will ever overtake F-150 sales.

It's funny. Almost everybody who saw its reveal thought that at first. "Okay, that's funny. Now bring out the real truck." But by the next day people were starting to think it was interesting. And a bit later most Tesla truck fans seem to think it is amazing. Maybe they're just suckers.

I'm not a truck fan, and I don't much care about looks -- it's functionality that makes my engineer's heart go pitter-pat. But what I think is that soon after it's been on the road a while, the conventional design of light trucks will start to look so last century. Aesthetics and popularity are weird that way. We shall see.

In any case, it will be so much superior to the F-150 (gas or EV) that people will find any excuse to buy it. Faster, stronger, tows more, more payload, more functional, safer, an off-road beast, more range, and cheaper -- what's not to like? The only reason it won't outsell the F-150 for a few years is that Tesla won't be able to make enough of them.

Tesla still has not come out with an affordable mid-size SUV.

There are lots of other manufacturers who can succeed if they build EVs that aren't crap. In what way is a Model Y insufficient? I'm really not up on what a "mid-size SUV" means. I think in terms of passenger space, cargo space, and various capabilities.

-IGU-
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In the same way you tell people not to make up problems that don't exist, you (and many other EV fans) comment on the stink of gas stations all the time to promote their position. I can't recall the last time I smelled anything bad at a gas station.

It's funny, neither did I. I think it's like living on a farm -- after a while you can't smell the pigs. But leave for a while and then come back. Then you'll realize how nice it was not having your nose assaulted that way all the time.

The smell of gasoline is not actually pleasant. Never having to smell it turns out to be (at least for me) an unexpected win.

-IGU-
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“Tesla still has not come out with an affordable mid-size SUV.”

There are lots of other manufacturers who can succeed if they build EVs that aren't crap. In what way is a Model Y insufficient? I'm really not up on what a "mid-size SUV" means. I think in terms of passenger space, cargo space, and various capabilities.

The Model Y fails the affordability test. The least expensive version at Tesla.com is $52k.

It needs to be $20k cheaper.
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The Model Y fails the affordability test. The least expensive version at Tesla.com is $52k.

It needs to be $20k cheaper.


Agreed that it's too expensive to be considered generally "affordable" new. And the cheaper "standard range" version is temporarily not available, at least until they improve the standard.

I'm curious what you're comparing it to that manages to be $20K cheaper (or even less). My experience is that the largest cost in vehicle ownership is depreciation, followed insurance, fuel, and maintenance. Given that Teslas have great resale value (i.e. depreciate slowly), and you can (in CA now and other states soon) get Tesla insurance at a competitive rate, and it uses very cheap fuel, and requires very little maintenance, I think you'll find that the total cost of ownership is surprisingly low.

Well, there's also the cost of financing, which although highly variable is sometimes very cheap due to promotions on some cars. I'm too cheap to have ever financed a car, so I don't know how that works.

In sum, for most people it matters what is affordable to them on a monthly basis, considering all costs. Teslas are much cheaper to own than ICE vehicles in terms of recurring costs. Although, of course, owning an old used vehicle can usually save way more.

And, as mentioned in a small burst of thread-relevant information, you might be able to get tax rebates on a number of EV expenses. Not only purchase price, but also any installation costs for a charging outlet.

-IGU-
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[Tesla cybertruck] will be so much superior to the F-150 that people will find any excuse to buy it.
The only reason it won't outsell the F-150 for a few years is that Tesla won't be able to make enough of them.

-IGU-

...
Never having to smell [gas at a gas station] gas turns out to be an unexpected win.

-IGU-


I love the way you say this stuff with a perfectly straight face.

Well played, sir. Well played.
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I advocate that people who can afford an EV buy an EV.

That's where your error lies. There's more to the picture than just the ability to afford the purchase price.

An EV needs to also meet your needs in a vehicle. For example, I need a vehicle that can carry a passenger in a wheel chair. There are no EVs that can do that or that can be reasonably modified to do that.

The Model Y is already cheaper than a less nice Camry,

Less nice by whose definition? I've driven my brother's Model 3 on a few occasions. The more I drive it, the less I like it. Getting in and out of the vehicle is not at all easy. Yes, I could stand to lose 20 pounds, but it's far more than that. And yes, a Model Y would likely be easier to get in and out of.

My bigger inconvenience is the controls. The only standard controls on the vehicle are the brake, accelerator, and steering wheel. How do you adjust the AC? Beats me - that takes some time to learn your way around the touch screen. How do you open the door from the outside? You have to push one end of the handle in then grab the other end as it pops out, an operation that only works well with one hand and not the other. And the correct hand to use switches sides when you switch sides of the car.

What speed are you traveling? The speedometer is on the screen in the middle of the dash. Most other modern cars put it behind the steering wheel. I also dislike digital speedometers. Needles moving around a gauge (even imitation ones on a display screen) are easier to read at a quick glance. And quick glances are done much easier straight up and down rather than the diagonal look you need to do to see the speedo in a Tesla.

How about failure modes. How do you open a door from the inside if the push-button electric release fails? Beats me. How do you get out at all if there's an electric failure? Probably with a brick through a window. How do you get out of a Model X if you find yourself upside down after a wreck? It's not through the back doors. They won't open.

Now don't get me wrong. There's a lot of good stuff in a Tesla, too. My brother's Model 3 is the base model, but putting the accelerator to the floor never fails to elicit a huge grin. And it doesn't matter if you are standing still or accelerating from 60 MPH. That kick in the seat of your pants is a very happy place. And I happen to like the exterior styling of most Teslas. They look good to my eye.

But having driven a Model 3 for a bit, would I buy one even if it fit my transportation needs? Nope. One of the other models might be a better physical fit for my particular shape. But they all suffer from that horrible screen in the middle of the dash. And that's such an easy fix. Put a smaller screen behind the steering wheel to display some basic info in the place people are used to seeing it. Speedo - in a gauge format rather than numbers. Turn signals. Gear selection. (BTW - that gear selector is horrible. Up? Down? Sideways? Again, confusing.) State of charge.

My point here is not to trash Teslas specifically or EVs in general. They do indeed have a lot going for them. But so do other ICE and Hybrid cars. They all meet different needs in the market place. If an EV fits your needs, that's great. But they don't fit everyone's needs. At least not right now. I'm sure that will improve over time. I actually believe that there will be a time in the not too distant future, where most people's vehicle needs can be met with an EV. ICEs will be a niche market for some special applications. We're just not there yet.

--Peter
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A Cybertruck will be cheaper than a F-150 as well as superior in every way imaginable.

PS - The F-150 is the truck for people who don't really need a truck. If the cybertruck ever makes it to market, it will likewise be a truck for people who don't really need a truck.

And who are blind. I though the Ridgeline was ugly. And then along comes the cybertruck taking things to a whole lower level.

--Peter
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PS - The F-150 is the truck for people who don't really need a truck. If the cybertruck ever makes it to market, it will likewise be a truck for people who don't really need a truck.

The Cybertruck is designed to be the best truck, period. Work truck, leisure truck, off-road truck. So it will likely replace any number of F-250s and 350s as well. We shall see. Low running costs are a big deal with work trucks I hear. Oh yeah, plus it's faster than a Porsche, while towing a Porsche. :)

And the thing about Teslas is that when they ship they always have *better* specs and more features than when they were revealed. It's going to be very interesting to find out what 500+ mile range for the tri-motor Cybertruck ends up being.

I'll give you ugly if you like, but nobody will care.

-IGU-
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And who are blind. I though the Ridgeline was ugly. And then along comes the cybertruck taking things to a whole lower level.

The irony is that people who drive Cybertrucks are inside the Cybertruck and don't have to look at them.
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There's more to the picture than just the ability to afford the purchase price.

Well, you have to start by being able to afford at least the monthly tab (not the purchase price).

You make a bunch of good points. Most of them can be answered by pointing out that anything new has a learning curve. And the things that people at first find weird they often miss when they drive an ICE occasionally. The regenerative braking / one pedal driving is emphatically in this category. And for the emergency procedures, you can look them up in advance if you are concerned, as they're all described in the manuals (available online and in the vehicle), and there are lots of training videos if you prefer.

Less nice by whose definition?

Well, objective definitions were what I was thinking of. Like EVs are more efficient, less expensive to maintain, less trouble to maintain, have mobile service available, cost less to fuel, are more convenient to fuel (usually), have more storage for the size of the vehicle, handle better, and are much safer. There are lots of subjective things which are a matter of taste too.

And yes, a Model Y would likely be easier to get in and out of.

Well, a Model X is the easiest of the Tesla models for ingress / egress. But all the others are higher than the Model 3. The air suspension that comes with some of them makes it easier too, as you can raise the vehicle several inches.

Also the Model S and Model X have an additional screen in front of the driver that contains all the critical information you like.

How do you get out of a Model X if you find yourself upside down after a wreck?

The best way is to never be upside down after a wreck. I've never heard of a Model X rolling, as the physics just doesn't work out that way. Check out this crash test video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L24xzJkCGdk).

And if you want to be mind-boggled, these guys walked away from a Tesla Model 3 going off a cliff and down over 100 feet. Some injuries. Happened just yesterday. (https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-nine-story-crash-pic...). I guess they must have figured out how to get out.

I need a vehicle that can carry a passenger in a wheel chair.

Now that's a very specific need. I've read about Teslas that were modded for drivers in wheelchairs, but not one that could carry a passenger in a wheelchair. Certainly a custom shop could do that, probably most easily to a Model X. But it would start with an expensive car and then involve an expensive mod. Best wait for something more appropriate. I bet one of those delivery vans that Rivian is making for Amazon would work well as a starting point (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/18/amazon-begins-testing-rivian...).

-IGU-
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We were at Sam's Club yesterday. Mid-afternoon, midweek. Got gas, 50% full. 16 pumps. Each one was occupied and had another 2-3 cars in line waiting.
On weekends, there is _always_ a longer line, often 4-5 cars waiting in line for each pump island.
We had to wait less than 5 minutes to get to the pump. Hopped out, put hose in tank, drove off 2 minutes later.

Wake me when I can do that in an EV. It's not so much the 20-30 minutes to take on a 50% charge. It's the wait while the EV cars ahead of you in line take their charge.

Usually when we drive in to Sams, we look to see if there is a line for the pumps. If so, we go into Sams first, then get gas afterwards. If no line, we get gas first then go into the store.


Why does their have t be a 20-30 minute wait? China swaps batteries. Maybe that is what Ford, Chevy, VW etc will do.

It's really funny how history rhymes. When my Grandfather opened up one of the first Ford garage/auto stores people were running around saying they would never get rid of their horses. Why, because a horse could always find feed and cars didn't have that many gas stations. A few years after opening up his garage/auto store the last horse stable and buggy whip maker in town closed down. It's amazing how technology takes over and the old technology just fades away.

Andy
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Cybertruck is butt ugly. I doubt it will ever overtake F-150 sales. Tesla still has not come out with an affordable mid-size SUV.

Do you mean the 2022 Ford F-150 Lightning? I agree. I am really excited about it especially when I saw a youtube of it pulling 1 million pounds. Wow.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWaNOMFJhX4

Andy
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I am really excited about it especially when I saw a youtube of it pulling 1 million pounds. Wow.

1.25 million pounds once they loaded 42 F-150s onto the railroad cars. But that's the thing - it's steel wheeled rail cars riding on steel railroad tracks. Rolling resistance of steel on steel is way lower than rolling resistance of tires on an asphalt or cement road surface, which is already way lower than, say, off road on a beach. It was a cool marketing stunt, but doesn't really translate to real life capabilities.

That said, I am definitely way more interested in purchasing an F-150 Lightning than a Cybertruck.

AJ
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I though the Ridgeline was ugly.

So did I. Apparently Honda got that message and, after a hiatus in 2015, a redesigned Ridgeline that looked more like a regular truck was introduced for 2016.

And then along comes the cybertruck taking things to a whole lower level.

Yes. You have to wonder if Tesla will get the message. My guess is that they will try to sell the ugliness as a 'feature'.

AJ
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You have to wonder if Tesla will get the message. My guess is that they will try to sell the ugliness as a 'feature'.

No message to get that would be useful because it would be delivered without understanding. The Cybertruck is strictly a "form follows function" design, achieving maximum efficiency given a few specific constraints inherent in having an structural exoskeleton.

This sort of thing is why Teslas have greater range than all other EVs -- engineering is paramount. Less weight and lower drag coefficient. Lower cost through ease of manufacturing (e.g. no paint shop), simple fast and cheap construction techniques. Ugly is a side-effect, but embraced because there's a different kind beauty in extreme functionality. It grows on you.

It's not even useful to comment until you have a good technical understanding of why it is the way it is. Partly because there isn't any piece of the thing that doesn't have a functional role.

Of course there's no reason not to have an opinion on the aesthetics. I'm just saying there's no reason anybody would care. Tesla has over a million (refundable) deposits on the things, with probably over half of them real. They won't be able to build enough to meet demand for years.

My guess is that people will customize them partly by way of vinyl wraps, plus a whole new industry of etchings and some form of tattoos. It's going to be pretty wild.

-IGU-
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Apparently Honda got that message and, after a hiatus in 2015, a redesigned Ridgeline that looked more like a regular truck was introduced for 2016.

True enough. Although they still built the ugly thing for 10 years before the message sunk in. OK - probably more like 6 or 7, considering the lead time for such a re-design to make it to production.

You have to wonder if Tesla will get the message. My guess is that they will try to sell the ugliness as a 'feature'.

If Elon likes it, there will be no change - no matter what anyone else says. It will take years of disappointing sales, then he'll abandon it with the complaint that one one understands how much better his truck is than the trucks pumped out by GM and Ford for the last 60 years. Because, you know, they just don't understand what a truck should do.

Brilliant guy, that Musk. But egotistical as all get out.

--Peter
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structural exoskeleton

Is that the new buzzword for a unibody construction?

--Peter
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And for the emergency procedures, you can look them up in advance if you are concerned, as they're all described in the manuals (available online and in the vehicle), and there are lots of training videos if you prefer.

Very convenient to have the manuals available on the touch screen in an emergency. Perhaps the car could start reading the relevant portions to you just as you need them.

"It appears that you are about to impact the car approaching from the right. I'm applying maximum braking power, but my calculations show that my efforts will be unsuccessful. After the impact, I will unlock the doors for you, as long as my power is not inter..."

What you are talking about is re-training driving habits instilled in many drivers for decades. Those are not changed easily, and are the source of errors.

Airline pilots are only qualified to fly one type of aircraft at a time. For safety reasons, they don't want pilots to have to think about exactly which plane they are flying at the moment. You train one set of procedures, you reinforce those periodically, and you get better safety results.

By having a bunch of people driving vehicles that are significantly different in how many details operate, you're just asking for trouble.

--Peter
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I've read about Teslas that were modded for drivers in wheelchairs, but not one that could carry a passenger in a wheelchair. Certainly a custom shop could do that, probably most easily to a Model X. But it would start with an expensive car and then involve an expensive mod.

Mods for hand controls are relatively simple. Downright crude, actually. They're basically a couple of rods and levers attached to the steering column and braced down at the firewall. That structural frame allows a single hand control to press the accelerator by moving the lever down, and press the brake by pushing it away from the driver. They can be installed on almost anything for a couple thousand dollars.

The ability to carry a passenger in a wheelchair is significantly more complex. One of the harder parts is getting adequate height. Most people don't really notice much, but when you sit in a car, your feet are stretched out in front of you. In the lowest slung cars, your feet and your bottom are at almost the same level. In a wheelchair, you sit like you would on a dining room chair. Your feet are more or less flat on the floor, with your lower leg perpendicular to the floor and your knee bent at 90 degrees. Your back is also close to straight up, rather than reclined as is often found in a car.

There is no where near enough room in a Model X to accommodate that height. In minivans, the usual mod is to cut out the floor and lower it by as much as 10 inches. That serves the dual purpose of adding the necessary vertical height and lowering the ramp angle necessary to get into the van. Given that the battery is under the vehicle, that's not an option in a Tesla. So they'd have to go the other way, by removing the roof and installing a taller replacement. The gull wing rear door doesn't strike me as wide enough, but I've never measured it. And the roof would be gone anyway. So an entire new rear door system would be necessary. The modifications to a minivan run about $25k to $30k. And that's based on doing a few thousand of those modifications per year. I can't even begin to imagine the cost to make similar modifications to a Tesla.

Which is why I've gone a different route. After having a minivan for many years, I switched to a full size van (a Sprinter in my case, although a Transit would work just as well), and installed a lift in it. The lift is a few thousand dollars, but requires nothing other than holes in the floor of the base van and a bit of wiring. Still costly, but easily affordable.

Strangely, I've thought that the basic Sprinter or Transit van would make a great base to do a Tesla Frankenstein van. Take the running gear out of a Model X and mount it in the van. There's plenty of ground clearance for a battery pack under the floor, and the motors are tiny compared to the engine/transmission combination of an ICE. Pull out a bunch of the electronics as well, and it might all think it's still in a Tesla. It would certainly make for interesting conversations at the supercharging station.

--Peter
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Agreed that it's [Model Y] too expensive to be considered generally "affordable" new. And the cheaper "standard range" version is temporarily not available, at least until they improve the standard.

I'm curious what you're comparing it to that manages to be $20K cheaper (or even less).


Simple enough: RAV4 XLE Premium Hybrid is $20k cheaper than a Model Y.

https://www.toyota.com/rav4/features/mpg/4528

All wheel drive, all the bells and whistles, fake leather seats, excellent reliability, excellent resale.

I'm sold on EVs, literally. We have one and we love it, for it's intended purpose. It's our around town runabout, does great and will be very cheap to own. It's not a Tesla, because Tesla don't make anything in it's class.
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Very convenient to have the manuals available on the touch screen in an emergency.

It doesn't matter where the manuals are. Nobody reads car manuals. Ever.

Well, maybe fanboys. But not actual, y'know, people. Regular people.

Not just car manuals. Just about every kind of manual. Have you ever read the manual for Microsoft Word or Excel?
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Simple enough: RAV4 XLE Premium Hybrid is $20k cheaper than a Model Y.

https://www.toyota.com/rav4/features/mpg/4528

All wheel drive, all the bells and whistles, fake leather seats, excellent reliability, excellent resale.


Now that is interesting. The inventory available when I pull up my area run $35,000-$36,300. The equivalent non-hybrid is about $34,000.
I pulled up Honda CR-V also. $35k for non-hybrid, $36K hybrid.

If I were in the market for a new car I would strongly consider a hybrid.

But....what's the point? You still have the ICE, with all the gas & maintenence that requires.
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Rayvt, I agree with RHinCT. I have owned my Model S for 4 years now and have driven it across the country several times. I am heading for Colorado today from Ohio for example. Tesla has made this travel very easy with the tools included in the car and Supercharging network.

Once you own one and take a few trips you quickly eliminate the fear of running out of charge. I actually find the long drives pretty relaxing now and appreciate the breaks as they typically align with food or bathroom breaks any way.

I suggest you go test drive a Tesla and see if that changes your mind....

Don
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That's your opinion, and it's based on your needs and priorities. But everyone does not have those same requirements and priorities, so may choose to buy something else. There's a reason there are so many car manufacturers, each with a variety of car models and feature offering.

There really is no one-size-fits-all, and that applies to cars just as well as to other things.


That's a problem with IGU. On multiple threads, I've told him I need storage and towing capacity and he keeps pushing the Model S and Model 3 on me.

PSU
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It's funny. Almost everybody who saw its reveal thought that at first. "Okay, that's funny. Now bring out the real truck." But by the next day people were starting to think it was interesting. And a bit later most Tesla truck fans seem to think it is amazing. Maybe they're just suckers.

Tesla fans may have loved it but IMO today's truck drivers don't like it. Your tradesman, farmer and rural redneck isn't going to buy it. They don't even like EVs. If forced to buy one someday, they'll opt for a F-150 Lightning over the Cybertruck.

I'm not a truck fan

That's why you don't understand.

In any case, it will be so much superior to the F-150 (gas or EV) that people will find any excuse to buy it. Faster, stronger, tows more, more payload, more functional, safer, an off-road beast, more range, and cheaper -- what's not to like? The only reason it won't outsell the F-150 for a few years is that Tesla won't be able to make enough of them.

I predict the F-150 Lightning will outsell the Cybertruck.

There are lots of other manufacturers who can succeed if they build EVs that aren't crap. In what way is a Model Y insufficient? I'm really not up on what a "mid-size SUV" means. I think in terms of passenger space, cargo space, and various capabilities.

The Model Y is a compact SUV. The Model X is a mid-size SUV. The Model Y lacks the passenger space and towing capacity.

Personally, I just don't like the Model X and Model Y looks. Tesla built sedans with SUV-like capability. I don't want my vehicle to look like a sedan. Put the Model 3, S, X, and Y next to each other and you see they just differ in looks by small changes in height and width.

PSU
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The Model Y fails the affordability test. The least expensive version at Tesla.com is $52k.

It needs to be $20k cheaper.


It gets worse with the Model X which is the mid-size SUV for Tesla. Base price is $84,690. If you want any color other than white, add another $1500. If you want any other color interior than all-black, another $2000. Up it to 6 passengers and another $6500. Total cost $99,990. Add another $10,000 if you want to add the full self-driving capability. Compare that to $40k Toyota Highlander.

In all the plusses that IGU likes to put on the Tesla side, we have property tax on our vehicles too. That will add to the costs of owning a Tesla.

PSU
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I suggest you go test drive a Tesla and see if that changes your mind....

As Sully said, "Unable."
No Tesla stores in my state. Nearest Tesla store is 375 miles away, according to googlemaps.
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Model X ...Total cost $99,990. Compare that to $40k Toyota Highlander.

But think of all the money you'll save on gas and oil changes!

In 100,000 miles at 7,000 miles between oil changes, at $50 per, that's $700 right there.
In 100,000 miles at 21 MPG, at $3.00/gal (Biden prices), that's another $14,300. The Tesla would only use $3,000 worth of electrons.
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In 100,000 miles at 7,000 miles between oil changes, at $50 per, that's $700 right there.
In 100,000 miles at 21 MPG, at $3.00/gal (Biden prices), that's another $14,300. The Tesla would only use $3,000 worth of electrons.


The Toyota Highlander actually has a 10,000 mile oil change interval. The issue I have had with past ICE/EV comparisons is that the manufacturer maintenance schedule is not used. Instead of 10k oil changes, they'll use 3k or 5k intervals. Instead of 100k coolant intervals, they'll use 30k intervals. With some articles, it is hard to find the underlying data they used to arrive at the maintenance costs.

PSU
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Strangely, I've thought that the basic Sprinter or Transit van would make a great base to do a Tesla Frankenstein van. Take the running gear out of a Model X and mount it in the van. There's plenty of ground clearance for a battery pack under the floor, and the motors are tiny compared to the engine/transmission combination of an ICE. Pull out a bunch of the electronics as well, and it might all think it's still in a Tesla. It would certainly make for interesting conversations at the supercharging station.

Ford has announced an E-Transit for 2022. That would be simpler than putting Tesla guts in a Transit. Rivian is building what is essentially a Transit/Sprinter for Amazon. They aren't available to the public yet, but I imagine they would be eventually.

Speaking of Rivian, I'm surprised no one has mentioned it in the Cybertruck vs. F150 debate.
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Tesla fans may have loved it but IMO today's truck drivers don't like it. Your tradesman, farmer and rural redneck isn't going to buy it.

As I said, Tesla fans generally hated it at first. It grew on people over time.

What makes you think so? Given where reservations are coming from (at least from looking at a crowdsourced reservation tracker), there must be large numbers of people wanting the Cybertruck who you claim don't. I don't see how you know anything until they're available for purchase. Just guesses based on what? That people won't want a truck that can kick the ass of their buddies' trucks in every way? Because it looks different?

I predict the F-150 Lightning will outsell the Cybertruck.

If Ford makes more Lightnings than Tesla makes Cybertrucks then your prediction will be correct. But the likely thing is that Ford doesn't make very many (lack of batteries and profits, plus dealer resistance) and Tesla sells every one they can make. My prediction is that by 2023 you'll be wrong.

Personally, I just don't like the Model X and Model Y looks.

And the Cybertruck too. I'm happy for you that you get to be choosy. But you seem to think most people will share your tastes, even after seeing every celebrity they can think of driving one, because there won't be anything even remotely as bad-ass out there. "Ford Tough" will be said with a snicker.

-IGU-
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Outside of California, nobody buys a truck because a celebrity drives one.

OTOH, "Elon Musk Announces New Tesla F-15"
available for preorder now.

https://babylonbee.com/news/elon-musk-announces-new-tesla-mo...
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Outside of California, nobody buys a truck because a celebrity drives one.

So all those massive sponsorship deals by which sports stars seem to make most of their money have no effect?

-IGU-
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1.25 million pounds once they loaded 42 F-150s onto the railroad cars. But that's the thing - it's steel wheeled rail cars riding on steel railroad tracks. Rolling resistance of steel on steel is way lower than rolling resistance of tires on an asphalt or cement road surface, which is already way lower than, say, off road on a beach. It was a cool marketing stunt, but doesn't really translate to real life capabilities.

Right AJ but the F150 still has to get the load moving. Once it gets moving it is easier but to start it moving takes a heck of alot of torque. Now saying that I think the real life max tongue wait is 13000 pounds. But, and I drive a diesel 3500 Ram truck, I will be trading in my truck for a lightening. Why? well there is a tipping point, that I think we are almost at, and a Ice vehicle just won't be that sought after and the trade in value will go down. It's far easier to maintain an electrical vehicle.

Andy
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Right AJ but the F150 still has to get the load moving.

The low rolling resistance means that the required force to get the load moving is less than 2,000 lbs, according to this guy's calculations. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Au3U72CX74I I have no idea if his rolling resistance calculations are correct, but they seem reasonable.

AJ
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What makes you think so? Given where reservations are coming from (at least from looking at a crowdsourced reservation tracker), there must be large numbers of people wanting the Cybertruck who you claim don't. I don't see how you know anything until they're available for purchase. Just guesses based on what? That people won't want a truck that can kick the ass of their buddies' trucks in every way? Because it looks different?

You keep saying it grew on Tesla fans. Most of my relatives are truck owners. I'm a hunter and belong to a large hunting forum. Probably 95% of the members are truck owners. They don't like the Cybertruck. They don't even like EVs. You already admitted you don't understand trucks. CA where you live is not representative of truck owners.

And the Cybertruck too. I'm happy for you that you get to be choosy. But you seem to think most people will share your tastes, even after seeing every celebrity they can think of driving one, because there won't be anything even remotely as bad-ass out there. "Ford Tough" will be said with a snicker.

If you think celebrities will represent Cybertruck owners, you are probably right. The truck owners in the heartland of the US are not look-at-me try to be cool trend followers.

PSU
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What makes you think so?

Another reply to your post since I had a suspicion about truck owners and voting. So I looked for an article on it. It wasn't hard to find.

Vehicles And Voting: What Your Car Might Say About How You’ll Vote
https://www.forbes.com/wheels/news/what-your-car-might-say-a...

This article shows that pickup owners are mainly Republicans. I don't see them flocking towards EVs.

PSU
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But you seem to think most people will share your tastes,

My irony meter just exploded.
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The low rolling resistance means that the required force to get the load moving is less than 2,000 lbs, according to this guy's calculations. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Au3U72CX74I I have no idea if his rolling resistance calculations are correct, but they seem reasonable.

That was interesting and the CRR that he used was not very conservative. Also he didn't explain how much torque it would take to get the load moving only how much hp to keep it moving. Also he didn't calculate the CRR for the Ford F150. But I think we all knew that it would be easier to pull a load on a railroad track but didn't realize exactly how much easier, but having invested in railroads, I did know that is why it is so efficient to ship on tracks rather than road.

But after reading up on this I think if he wanted to be conservative he would have used a CRR of .004 instead of .001. Because the load on the track would have been higher than a passenger train.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolling_resistance

Look at Rolling resistance coefficient examples.

Andy
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No. of Recommendations: 8
It doesn't matter where the manuals are. Nobody reads car manuals. Ever.

Well, maybe fanboys. But not actual, y'know, people. Regular people.


Huh? I’m regular people and read the car manual twice a year!

When daylight savings starts and when daylight savings ends. I can never remember how to change the damn car clocks.

AW
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I predict the F-150 Lightning will outsell the Cybertruck.


I like my Model 3...but I think the Cybertruck is a bit ugly.

But Tesla is actually building out the capacity to make a lot of them. And they have lots of pre-orders.
It is yet to be seen how serious Ford is in building capacity for EVs and in getting dealers to sell EVs. Look at the Mustang Mach-E...big sales for a Ford EV but tiny compared to Tesla anything.

I predict that the F-150 Lightning will sell less that 25% of the Cybertruck.
I think Ford EVs still get the federal $7500 tax credit and Tesla's don't (pending Congressional action).

On paper the F-150 Lightning is great. However...the charging infrastructure is lacking for non-Tesla's and the dealer support is still suspect.

Mike
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The truck owners in the heartland of the US are not look-at-me try to be cool trend followers.

Or maybe have a different definition of what is cool?
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If you think celebrities will represent Cybertruck owners, you are probably right. The truck owners in the heartland of the US are not look-at-me try to be cool trend followers.

And, what the heck? Everybody knows that big celebrities don't drive themselves. They have a chauffeur that drives them around.
When they _do_ drive themselves, they drive a Lamborghini (MSRP $218,009). Or Bentley (Starting at $210,000), but more likely a Bentley Azure (Starting at $370,095)

Celebrities sure as heck don't drive themselves to Home Depot to pick up a load of plywood.

So, yeah, nobody in the heartland will be buying a Tesla Cybertruck just because Liam Neeson is in a commercial.
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My bigger inconvenience is the controls.

I did a test drive of the Model 3 either two or three years ago (forget which). That was my primary complaint, and it is principally why I didn't get the car. I knew others would make EVs with more conventional displays, and they have.

I got my ID.4 less than two months ago. The basic displays are familiar, and are in front of your face. You can use voice command to turn on the A/C, or just hit "clima" for a display that is intuitively obvious (i.e. fan speed, A/C on/off, etc).

Just did a short road trip with it. No significant problems. In fact, I was able to plug into an outlet at the resort which then eliminated a charging stop for me (i.e. I let it charge overnight at the resort).

I wouldn't want to take it off-road (not really designed for that), or to some really rural area (though Cornville is fairly rural). Taking it to Young (AZ) would require planning, for example. Flagstaff? No sweat.

So I tend to agree with IGU in that if you can afford one, you should get one. TCO is generally less, and there are only a few niches where an ICE is particularly advantageous. VW (and others) still have the full tax credit, which reduces the effective price of the vehicle, there is no maintenance to speak of (e.g. rotate tires, occasionally change the 12V battery, fill the wiper fluid), registration is usually cheaper, etc. They aren't in the $25K range, and if that's your budget then you're going to have to settle for what you can get (which would not be a quality ICE either).

Anyway, VW and others are making EVs much more available. If you can afford that level of vehicle, choosing an EV over an ICE is -most of the time- a no-brainer. IMHO.

1poorguy
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I agree the "Cybertruck" is not my idea of attractive.

On the other hand, the Ford looks pretty typical.

https://www.ford.com/trucks/f150/f150-lightning/2022/reserva...
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If you think celebrities will represent Cybertruck owners, you are probably right. The truck owners in the heartland of the US are not look-at-me try to be cool trend followers.

PSU


But they still follow the "The smaller the package, the bigger the truck" rule, no?

CNC
😁 😆 😅 😂 🤣
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Celebrities sure as heck don't drive themselves to Home Depot to pick up a load of plywood. - rayvt

---------------

Sure they can afford a Bentley, but affording to buy plywood is another matter entirely.
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So I tend to agree with IGU in that if you can afford one, you should get one.

You don't buy something just because you can afford it. I could afford to buy several Model X just by writing a check. The reason I can write the check is that I didn't buy a $100k vehicle when a $40k one serves my needs.

Anyway, VW and others are making EVs much more available.

But its a VW.

PSU
not a VW fan
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The reason I can write the check is that I didn't buy a $100k vehicle when a $40k one serves my needs.

</snip>


That's kind of my problem. I ask myself, "Would you feel stupid with a $100,000 vehicle depreciating in your garage if a $40,000 car will do?

intercst
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Cybertruck is butt ugly. I doubt it will ever overtake F-150 sales. Tesla still has not come out with an affordable mid-size SUV.


I'll keep watching for one that's a match for F250/F350 and 700 mile range on factory diesel tank. Time precious and GVW matters. Last week went straight through from San Dog to Castle Rock pulling a skid steer in a dual axle dump trailer w/ only an 90 minute rest stop sleep outside Tucson. Probably easy to get the needed torque from an EV but not sure how much longer that would be with pullouts for charging an EV truck.
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LOL, ptheland FTW!

PS - The F-150 is the truck for people who don't really need a truck.
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I ask myself, "Would you feel stupid with a $100,000 vehicle depreciating in your garage if a $40,000 car will do?

You are the quintessential miser, of course. (Just in case you hadn't realized that.)

I would hate to die with $10 million in my brokerage account. My Dad (The Old No Count) claimed he wanted his last nickle to be used to pay the undertaker for his funeral. (He didn't succeed in that either.)

Money is to buy comforts and for toys. I went to the grocery store yesterday. As I was putting my groceries in the car (minding my own business) I heard a low throated snarl - like a small V-8. Looked around and sure enough - a red Jaguar F-Type coupe. Yes. I coveted it*.

https://www.jaguarusa.com/all-models/f-type/index.html?&...

CNC

*Many years ago I had a red E-Type coupe. Liked it very much, but it was a vandalism magnet. Had it repainted twice. One morning I washed and waxed it. Left it in the driveway. When I went to put it away it has been key scratched down both sides. People suck.
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CountNoCount writes,

<<I ask myself, "Would you feel stupid with a $100,000 vehicle depreciating in your garage if a $40,000 car will do?>>>

You are the quintessential miser, of course. (Just in case you hadn't realized that.)

</snip>


Not really. I'm willing to spend money on stuff I value. For example, I've frivolously spent tens of thousands of dollars piloting a small plane around the Pacific NW, but that's an activity that I enjoy enough to make it of value. Having a $100,000 automobile depreciating in my garage, not so much.

<<< CNC: *Many years ago I had a red E-Type coupe. Liked it very much, but it was a vandalism magnet. Had it repainted twice. One morning I washed and waxed it. Left it in the driveway. When I went to put it away it has been key scratched down both sides. People suck.

</snip>


Exactly! People are unlikely to harm my 16-year-old Nissan Altima.

intercst
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that's an activity that I enjoy enough to make it of value

Exactly. To each his/her own.

Tim
who, after two years, still gets a big grin every time he smashes the pedal down on the Tesla. My Hyundai never made me grin.
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And you're a hunter. Like I said, EVs are not ready for all applications. Though Ford is putting out their EV truck. Maybe that would be a closer fit? A Model X won't do it for you, obviously.

As for brand preference, that's a personal thing. Pretty much any badge is going to be making EVs available within the next year or two. VW happens to be pushing pretty hard, but others will follow suit. Some already are.

1poorguy (not a VW "fan", I just happened to like this vehicle)
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And you're a hunter. Like I said, EVs are not ready for all applications. Though Ford is putting out their EV truck. Maybe that would be a closer fit? A Model X won't do it for you, obviously.

It doesn't have to do with hunting. You stated if you can afford to buy something, you should buy it. A Model X would serve my needs quite fine and I can afford it. That doesn't mean I'm going to spend 2.5x for something just because I could afford it. I could afford a $2 million McMansion in a gated community but I continue to live in my current house because it serves my needs.

1poorguy (not a VW "fan", I just happened to like this vehicle)

Keep trying to convince yourself of that. A reader can't ignore your love for VW over all the years on these boards. Should I pull up all those posts?

PSU
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I think that is a misstatement. I was 50 years old before I owned my first VW. I loved the TDI, not VW specifically. After I turned the TDI in (diesel scandal), I did not replace it with another VW. In fact, I ended up with a used Honda (which we still have). Almost replaced it with Bolt, but the seats were uncomfortable and there was something about the displays I didn't like (I don't remember now). And then the used Honda became available. If the Model 3 had normal dash displays, I probably would have bought a Model 3 two years ago. Despite the reported initial quality problems. VW came out with the ID.4, I drove it, I liked it, and I got it last month.

I'm not loyal to VW, just like I am not loyal to Honda (of which I have owned the most over my life -3-), or Saturn (owned an SL2), or Jeep (still have it), or anything else. I either like the vehicle, or I don't.

I'm going to spend 2.5x for something just because I could afford it.

It's more than just the up-front price. There's TCO to consider. Though it is also not really fair to compare a high-end vehicle to a not-high-end vehicle. You could compare an Audi to a Toyota (for example), but they aren't really the same. But I do agree with the sentiment that you don't spend something just because you can afford it. But if you can afford it, and all other things being equal (class of vehicle, comparable equipment, etc), the EV is probably a better purchase for most people in most situations.
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It's more than just the up-front price. There's TCO to consider.

Sure but many of the comparisons were flawed. Since they were posted on sites that promote EVs, they had an incentive to put a finger on the scales.

Though it is also not really fair to compare a high-end vehicle to a not-high-end vehicle.

It is fair when the only EV in the class is a high-end vehicle. That illustrates the point that more economical EVs need to come to the market.

PSU
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That illustrates the point that more economical EVs need to come to the market.

You'll get no argument from me on that point. I think the gating item is batteries. Hopefully the cheap (solid state?) battery that charges quickly will become a reality.

One reason I didn't buy a Model S (or X) was price. Dashboard displays were fine, but I wouldn't buy a comparable BMW or Audi either. As I said, I would have bought a 3 if they didn't rely on the center screen for EVERYTHING. There were tax credits at the time, also.

1pg
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