Skip to main content
No. of Recommendations: 17
Hi Everyone,
Questions came up on Tricida (TCDA), so I thought that I would post my answers for everyone. TCDA makes a non-toxic polymer that absorbs stomach acid without increasing the salt in the chronic kidney disease patient's bodies, a super important benefit. For you chemistry people, it is a polymer that converts an amine to a quaternary ammonium chloride moeity in the presence of acid. This would be a critical therapy for CKD patients, and there is no alternative.

FDA NDA Goal Date: 8/22/2020

Key Patent: US 9,205,107 Expires June 23, 2034

Peak Sales Estimate from S-1: $1.5B

Current Market Cap: $1.4B

Approximate Purchase Value: $11.2B Typically companies sell for 8X peak sales estimates.

Key Results: With 93 person legs, 4 placebo patients died from CKD, all treated patients lived. 10.8% of placebo patents lost kidney function > 50%, while only 4% of VEVERIMER patients lost kidney function > 50%. For all of the thousands of people that have CKD, this seems like a small test to me.

TCDA has passed a small Phase 3 test. They believe that they will initially have around 550,000 patients. Importantly, TCDA is a one trick pony. Their drug VEVERIMER (aka TRC101) is their only product.

Key Question: Why hasn't their stock price moved???? This stock has done nothing, even with the positive Phase 3 results. I have no idea why this is the case.

This seems like a tremendous value. Typically, one trick ponies get purchased by larger pharmaceutical companies.

Things that could go wrong.
1. The polymer adversely affects the gut microbiome.
I would think that the Phase 2 and Phase 3 testing would have to establish safety with respect the microbiome, but I have not found anything related to this.

2. There is a manufacturing concern.
This is not a biologic, so manufacturing is probably a lower risk proposition than those technologies

3. The benefits seen in the smaller phase 3 results do not materialize with a larger population. Becuase this drug is based on such a primitive and well known chemistry, I would be shocked if this doesn't work. The idea of taking a nontoxic antacid pill, that completely absorbs the acid, and leaves in the patient's poop, seems straightforward to me.

The price recently dropped due to a convertible notes offering. From the press releases, the company is staffing up in preparation for selling this drug. I would not be surprised if TCDA is purchased at any time.

Best Regards,

bulwnkl

PS I picked up on this off of the Biotech board, although this is not a biologic treatment. I think Fuma is the one who first highlighted this company.

PPS Long TCDA 3.4%
Print the post  

Announcements

What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.