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I want to stimulate discussion on the issue of TDW and other oil suppliers as being a temporary safe-heaven for investors. Let's face it, the average investor is likely to be more defensive going into 2001 than going into 2000. How will this affect the oil supply biz? On a very broad scale, I feel the abandonment of non brick-and-morter companies will benefit traditional establishments like TDW. That combined with the esculating price of oil, and rising demand, make companies like TDW seemingly safe. However, safety is fleeting, and I recommend caution. Timing is critical; when interest rates are lowered, economic optimism begins to rebound, or even if the oil price cools, I predict TDW and others will head south for the summer. To close, I'm long on TDW, and will be at least until March. Everyone have a safe and happy New Year!
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